|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Steve
That's one of the problems with our system, IMHO. By not watching the
charts, we sometimes wait too long in closing or reversing a position. I'm
trying to try to remember to look at various charts daily to help improve
our exit strategy.
We actually never forecast targets with our system because it doesn't lend
itself to that.
Regards
Guy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> Sent: Friday, September 11, 1998 7:41 AM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> Guy,
> I don't ignore any of this. I trade 'em up everyday. The truth
> of the matter is I'm not in the prediction game. Many people on
> this list get caught up in the "prediction syndrome". Even some
> of these technical sites have you "predict" where the Dow is
> going to be on Halloween (or whenever). I a reactionary. I
> don't predict anything. I toss out some semi flippant comments
> about where the market looks like it's going on occasion.
> Everyday, I try to blank out my mind (easy task when your not
> starting with much up there in the first place) and start over.
> I look at each position and say, would I buy it right now and if
> I say no and I'm in a long position...I toss it. Open
> mindedness is the single greatest asset a trader can have. I
> see tons of emotion running through these posts. I prefer to
> judge the past, get a clue about the present position and
> direction and try to ride momentum and relative strength.
> Sometimes it works, many times it doesn't. The entire key is
> money management principles.
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
> ----------
> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > Date: Thursday, September 10, 1998 9:23 PM
> >
> > Steve
> >
> > Went back through some of your posts. Why did we ignore this
> one? You
> > called for a bounce back to 1015-1020 which it did.
> >
> > Guy
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> Karnish
> > > Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 7:33 PM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > >
> > >
> > > Guy,
> > >
> > > Hopefully you saw through my thinly vailed, sarcastic
> Detroit
> > > humor (Robin Williams, Lily Tomlin, Tim Allen, Gilda Radner,
> and
> > > of course Soupy), to see that I'm hanging on to my third
> week in
> > > September prediction (It was about as thinly vailed as
> Madonna
> > > dressed up as a nun...another fine Murder City comedian).
> > >
> > > Of course, you're only as good as your last prediction.
> This is
> > > for you Guy, the only person, on the list, who lived just
> off
> > > of Middlebelt (I lived five houses away 29525 W. Chicago).
> You
> > > must promise to keep this to yourself: All my "super
> secret"
> > > calculations point to a rally to "bounce back" to at least
> 1015
> > > - 1020 in the Sept. 500 and then I'm targeting 910 on the
> > > downside.
> > >
> > > I seldom target anything. It seems when I do, I get
> emotionally
> > > attached to the outcome. These markets are real seducers.
> If
> > > you get to attached to an outcome, they'll break your heart.
> > >
> > > I almost "fell in love" with crude oil recently. We started
> > > going out early last week. It was love at first sight. She
> had
> > > gone through tough times and I kinda "picked her up" near
> the
> > > bottom of her life. Well, things just got better everyday
> and I
> > > thought it might last forever (you know, like a couple of
> > > weeks). Then, on Friday, she started acting funny. She no
> > > longer wanted go in the direction I wanted to go. It was
> like
> > > she followed me up to a point and then she resisted. It was
> as
> > > if she would go right up to a line in the sand and then
> wouldn't
> > > cross it. Well, I told her I'd take the weekend to
> reevaluate
> > > our relationship, but, after consulting a few close,
> objective
> > > friends, I'm dumping her on Monday. I don't want to get
> hurt
> > > again. It's the best thing for both of us.
> > > Sorry about pouring my heart out in public. Please don't
> feel
> > > bad for me, we had some real good times and I've been seeing
> > > this girl from Canada on the side.
> > >
> > > Anyway, don't get caught with long positions right before
> the
> > > "triplewitch" ... she'll put a spell on you! If I come
> close to
> > > any of these predictions, I'll be writing a book this
> winter:
> > > "Leonardo Fibonacci: The Missing Years". If not, I might
> > > write: "The Secret Rock and Roll Life of Robert Prechter".
> > >
> > > Hope your weekend is going good.
> > > Howling at the full moon,
> > >
> > > Steve Karnish
> > > CCT
> > >
> > >
> > > ----------
> > > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > > > Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 4:17 PM
> > > >
> > > > OK Steve
> > > >
> > > > Now I'm confused. What's the date???? October 5 or the
> third
> > > week of
> > > > September???
> > > >
> > > > The market held our support price, basis S&P futures of
> 936.
> > > The upside
> > > > channel resistance is 1076 (approx.). If we get anywhere
> near
> > > there, I plan
> > > > on buying a bunch of Out of the Money Puts and hold on.
> > > >
> > > > I see a possible range for the S&P of 140 points and this
> > > translates to 1260
> > > > Dow points (approx.), I think. If we do get a run up to
> > > anywhere that
> > > > level, it might be worth it to 'take a shot'. This weeks
> S&P
> > > support
> > > > (again, I'm talking futures prices here) is 941 (approx.).
> > > Any breakout
> > > > below that number, even interday, could mean a target of
> 867
> > > (approx.).
> > > > That would be the equivalent of 981 Dow points down from
> the
> > > close Friday.
> > > >
> > > > These are just some of the numbers I'm reading from my
> charts.
> > > I haven't
> > > > looked at calculating a 'bottom'.
> > > >
> > > > Guy
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> > > Karnish
> > > > > Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> > > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
> SIMS
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Guy,
> > > > >
> > > > > I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he
> said:
> > > > > "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> > > > >
> > > > > If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big
> stretch
> > > of
> > > > > the imagination, but let's assume that they were only
> 90%
> > > > > invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> > > > > withdrawals...how will that affect the market?
> Duhhhhhhhh.
> > > > >
> > > > > Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that
> have
> > > never
> > > > > seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
> > > traders)
> > > > > all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and
> they
> > > have
> > > > > refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey
> man,
> > > we
> > > > > can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will
> destroy my
> > > > > year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
> > > > >
> > > > > Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in
> mid
> > > July
> > > > > are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for
> the
> > > > > long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds
> in
> > > > > record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8
> year
> > > > > Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share
> and
> > > vow
> > > > > "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja
> vu
> > > all
> > > > > over again? Please respond if you were around for the
> 22
> > > month
> > > > > bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I
> > > know
> > > > > you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
> > > neighborly
> > > > > stories).
> > > > >
> > > > > For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your
> arguments.
> > > > > Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already
> pulled a
> > > > > stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this
> week.
> > > > > Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long
> the
> > > Can
> > > > > $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows
> Monday
> > > or
> > > > > Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on
> Friday
> > > and
> > > > > then again on Monday.
> > > > >
> > > > > So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home.
> > > Two
> > > > > weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we
> even
> > > get
> > > > > to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> > > > > Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your
> kneecaps
> > > for
> > > > > $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your
> heart
> > > (and
> > > > > steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
> > > tick,
> > > > > tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> > > > >
> > > > > Steve Karnish
> > > > > CCT
> > > > > ----------
> > > > > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > > > > > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> > > > > >
> > > > > > This is a personal note about the market and various
> > > investor
> > > > > thoughts.
> > > > > > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment
> or
> > > SIMS
> > > > > <G>.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Background..
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy
> for
> > > the
> > > > > bull market.
> > > > > > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For
> those
> > > of
> > > > > you who don't
> > > > > > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
> > > youth,
> > > > > but he managed
> > > > > > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By
> the
> > > > > time he was 40,
> > > > > > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view
> even).
> > > > > Married a cute
> > > > > > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best
> friend
> > > (or
> > > > > second best, if
> > > > > > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally
> met
> > > > > Stan. Through
> > > > > > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old.
> So
> > > I've
> > > > > known Stan for
> > > > > > 6 1/2 years.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Stan's Market Philosophy
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His
> > > wife is
> > > > > perfect for
> > > > > > him, because she can grind down the best of them
> <ggg>.
> > > > > Anyway, Stan is a
> > > > > > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm
> told.
> > > He
> > > > > currently makes
> > > > > > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't
> ask
> > > me
> > > > > how? We make
> > > > > > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> > > > > >
> > > > > > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
> > > excess
> > > > > cash into
> > > > > > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> > > > > international exposures,
> > > > > > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
> > > discussed
> > > > > the various
> > > > > > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
> > > different
> > > > > planets. His
> > > > > > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm
> in it
> > > for
> > > > > the long pull
> > > > > > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt
> > > that
> > > > > the last few
> > > > > > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able
> to
> > > > > maintain a 10% per
> > > > > > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
> > > investor
> > > > > with their
> > > > > > 401k investments.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to
> forgo
> > > > > putting any more
> > > > > > money into his various funds. He has started
> investing
> > > all of
> > > > > his new
> > > > > > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to
> understand
> > > that
> > > > > he is not
> > > > > > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not
> adding
> > > > > anything new.
> > > > > > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while
> he
> > > > > refuses to look at
> > > > > > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> > > > > substantially less
> > > > > > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect
> > > himself
> > > > > and not keep all
> > > > > > of his eggs in one basket.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents
> the
> > > > > average American,
> > > > > > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while
> Bond
> > > funds
> > > > > and banks
> > > > > > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
> > > available
> > > > > for lending and
> > > > > > no where to go.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all
> of
> > > his
> > > > > current fund
> > > > > > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a
> year
> > > ago,
> > > > > that the
> > > > > > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
> > > they're
> > > > > in a bear
> > > > > > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Regards
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Guy
> > > > >
> > >
>
|