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"I am a reactionary...... I toss out some semi flippant comments....
Everyday, I try to blank out my mind .... The entire key is
money management principles."
I agree with you.
Richard Estes
-----Original Message-----
From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Friday, September 11, 1998 10:02 AM
Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>Guy,
>I don't ignore any of this. I trade 'em up everyday. The truth
>of the matter is I'm not in the prediction game. Many people on
>this list get caught up in the "prediction syndrome". Even some
>of these technical sites have you "predict" where the Dow is
>going to be on Halloween (or whenever). I a reactionary. I
>don't predict anything. I toss out some semi flippant comments
>about where the market looks like it's going on occasion.
>Everyday, I try to blank out my mind (easy task when your not
>starting with much up there in the first place) and start over.
>I look at each position and say, would I buy it right now and if
>I say no and I'm in a long position...I toss it. Open
>mindedness is the single greatest asset a trader can have. I
>see tons of emotion running through these posts. I prefer to
>judge the past, get a clue about the present position and
>direction and try to ride momentum and relative strength.
>Sometimes it works, many times it doesn't. The entire key is
>money management principles.
>Steve Karnish
>CCT
>
>----------
>> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> Date: Thursday, September 10, 1998 9:23 PM
>>
>> Steve
>>
>> Went back through some of your posts. Why did we ignore this
>one? You
>> called for a bounce back to 1015-1020 which it did.
>>
>> Guy
>>
>> > -----Original Message-----
>> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
>Karnish
>> > Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 7:33 PM
>> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >
>> >
>> > Guy,
>> >
>> > Hopefully you saw through my thinly vailed, sarcastic
>Detroit
>> > humor (Robin Williams, Lily Tomlin, Tim Allen, Gilda Radner,
>and
>> > of course Soupy), to see that I'm hanging on to my third
>week in
>> > September prediction (It was about as thinly vailed as
>Madonna
>> > dressed up as a nun...another fine Murder City comedian).
>> >
>> > Of course, you're only as good as your last prediction.
>This is
>> > for you Guy, the only person, on the list, who lived just
>off
>> > of Middlebelt (I lived five houses away 29525 W. Chicago).
>You
>> > must promise to keep this to yourself: All my "super
>secret"
>> > calculations point to a rally to "bounce back" to at least
>1015
>> > - 1020 in the Sept. 500 and then I'm targeting 910 on the
>> > downside.
>> >
>> > I seldom target anything. It seems when I do, I get
>emotionally
>> > attached to the outcome. These markets are real seducers.
>If
>> > you get to attached to an outcome, they'll break your heart.
>> >
>> > I almost "fell in love" with crude oil recently. We started
>> > going out early last week. It was love at first sight. She
>had
>> > gone through tough times and I kinda "picked her up" near
>the
>> > bottom of her life. Well, things just got better everyday
>and I
>> > thought it might last forever (you know, like a couple of
>> > weeks). Then, on Friday, she started acting funny. She no
>> > longer wanted go in the direction I wanted to go. It was
>like
>> > she followed me up to a point and then she resisted. It was
>as
>> > if she would go right up to a line in the sand and then
>wouldn't
>> > cross it. Well, I told her I'd take the weekend to
>reevaluate
>> > our relationship, but, after consulting a few close,
>objective
>> > friends, I'm dumping her on Monday. I don't want to get
>hurt
>> > again. It's the best thing for both of us.
>> > Sorry about pouring my heart out in public. Please don't
>feel
>> > bad for me, we had some real good times and I've been seeing
>> > this girl from Canada on the side.
>> >
>> > Anyway, don't get caught with long positions right before
>the
>> > "triplewitch" ... she'll put a spell on you! If I come
>close to
>> > any of these predictions, I'll be writing a book this
>winter:
>> > "Leonardo Fibonacci: The Missing Years". If not, I might
>> > write: "The Secret Rock and Roll Life of Robert Prechter".
>> >
>> > Hope your weekend is going good.
>> > Howling at the full moon,
>> >
>> > Steve Karnish
>> > CCT
>> >
>> >
>> > ----------
>> > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > > Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> > > Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 4:17 PM
>> > >
>> > > OK Steve
>> > >
>> > > Now I'm confused. What's the date???? October 5 or the
>third
>> > week of
>> > > September???
>> > >
>> > > The market held our support price, basis S&P futures of
>936.
>> > The upside
>> > > channel resistance is 1076 (approx.). If we get anywhere
>near
>> > there, I plan
>> > > on buying a bunch of Out of the Money Puts and hold on.
>> > >
>> > > I see a possible range for the S&P of 140 points and this
>> > translates to 1260
>> > > Dow points (approx.), I think. If we do get a run up to
>> > anywhere that
>> > > level, it might be worth it to 'take a shot'. This weeks
>S&P
>> > support
>> > > (again, I'm talking futures prices here) is 941 (approx.).
>> > Any breakout
>> > > below that number, even interday, could mean a target of
>867
>> > (approx.).
>> > > That would be the equivalent of 981 Dow points down from
>the
>> > close Friday.
>> > >
>> > > These are just some of the numbers I'm reading from my
>charts.
>> > I haven't
>> > > looked at calculating a 'bottom'.
>> > >
>> > > Guy
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > > -----Original Message-----
>> > > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
>> > Karnish
>> > > > Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
>> > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > > > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
>SIMS
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > > Guy,
>> > > >
>> > > > I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he
>said:
>> > > > "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
>> > > >
>> > > > If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big
>stretch
>> > of
>> > > > the imagination, but let's assume that they were only
>90%
>> > > > invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
>> > > > withdrawals...how will that affect the market?
>Duhhhhhhhh.
>> > > >
>> > > > Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that
>have
>> > never
>> > > > seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
>> > traders)
>> > > > all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and
>they
>> > have
>> > > > refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey
>man,
>> > we
>> > > > can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will
>destroy my
>> > > > year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
>> > > >
>> > > > Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in
>mid
>> > July
>> > > > are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for
>the
>> > > > long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds
>in
>> > > > record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8
>year
>> > > > Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share
>and
>> > vow
>> > > > "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja
>vu
>> > all
>> > > > over again? Please respond if you were around for the
>22
>> > month
>> > > > bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I
>> > know
>> > > > you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
>> > neighborly
>> > > > stories).
>> > > >
>> > > > For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your
>arguments.
>> > > > Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already
>pulled a
>> > > > stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this
>week.
>> > > > Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long
>the
>> > Can
>> > > > $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows
>Monday
>> > or
>> > > > Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on
>Friday
>> > and
>> > > > then again on Monday.
>> > > >
>> > > > So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home.
>> > Two
>> > > > weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we
>even
>> > get
>> > > > to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
>> > > > Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your
>kneecaps
>> > for
>> > > > $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your
>heart
>> > (and
>> > > > steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
>> > tick,
>> > > > tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
>> > > >
>> > > > Steve Karnish
>> > > > CCT
>> > > > ----------
>> > > > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > > > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > > > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> > > > > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
>> > > > >
>> > > > > This is a personal note about the market and various
>> > investor
>> > > > thoughts.
>> > > > > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment
>or
>> > SIMS
>> > > > <G>.
>> > > > >
>> > > > > Background..
>> > > > >
>> > > > > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy
>for
>> > the
>> > > > bull market.
>> > > > > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For
>those
>> > of
>> > > > you who don't
>> > > > > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
>> > youth,
>> > > > but he managed
>> > > > > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By
>the
>> > > > time he was 40,
>> > > > > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view
>even).
>> > > > Married a cute
>> > > > > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best
>friend
>> > (or
>> > > > second best, if
>> > > > > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally
>met
>> > > > Stan. Through
>> > > > > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old.
>So
>> > I've
>> > > > known Stan for
>> > > > > 6 1/2 years.
>> > > > >
>> > > > > Stan's Market Philosophy
>> > > > >
>> > > > > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His
>> > wife is
>> > > > perfect for
>> > > > > him, because she can grind down the best of them
><ggg>.
>> > > > Anyway, Stan is a
>> > > > > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm
>told.
>> > He
>> > > > currently makes
>> > > > > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't
>ask
>> > me
>> > > > how? We make
>> > > > > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
>> > > > >
>> > > > > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
>> > excess
>> > > > cash into
>> > > > > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
>> > > > international exposures,
>> > > > > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
>> > discussed
>> > > > the various
>> > > > > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
>> > different
>> > > > planets. His
>> > > > > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm
>in it
>> > for
>> > > > the long pull
>> > > > > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt
>> > that
>> > > > the last few
>> > > > > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able
>to
>> > > > maintain a 10% per
>> > > > > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
>> > investor
>> > > > with their
>> > > > > 401k investments.
>> > > > >
>> > > > > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to
>forgo
>> > > > putting any more
>> > > > > money into his various funds. He has started
>investing
>> > all of
>> > > > his new
>> > > > > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to
>understand
>> > that
>> > > > he is not
>> > > > > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not
>adding
>> > > > anything new.
>> > > > > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while
>he
>> > > > refuses to look at
>> > > > > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
>> > > > substantially less
>> > > > > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect
>> > himself
>> > > > and not keep all
>> > > > > of his eggs in one basket.
>> > > > >
>> > > > > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents
>the
>> > > > average American,
>> > > > > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while
>Bond
>> > funds
>> > > > and banks
>> > > > > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
>> > available
>> > > > for lending and
>> > > > > no where to go.
>> > > > >
>> > > > > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all
>of
>> > his
>> > > > current fund
>> > > > > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a
>year
>> > ago,
>> > > > that the
>> > > > > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
>> > they're
>> > > > in a bear
>> > > > > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
>> > > > >
>> > > > > Regards
>> > > > >
>> > > > > Guy
>> > > >
>> >
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