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They say volatility is a traders friend.
Well for 1000 points every three days, count me in as well <GG>
Frans
At 23:07 9-09-98 -0700, you wrote:
>Jim
>
>I'll start watching for that <G>.
>
>Guy
>
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
>> Sent: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 5:11 PM
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>>
>>
>> Guy,
>> The market could be trying to set up a DJIA 7500-8000 trading
>> range. Now if it just continues to move from top to bottom every
>> couple of days we can all get rich <G>.
>>
>> Jim
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 7:14 PM
>> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>>
>>
>> >Jim
>> >
>> >It's about 2/3 of the way up mine. About 40 S&P points to go to hit
>> the
>> >peak this week.
>> >
>> >I would be surprised to see it end as I don't see any funnymentals
>> that
>> >would support this. Of course I didn't see how Greenspan's comments
>> would
>> >have triggered such a rally on Monday, either. FWIW, IMHO an
>> interest rate
>> >hike is only of value if there is demand for the money. It appears
>> that
>> >there is substantially more money than demand for it, and that some
>> >fundamental changes need to occur for this to have a lasting impact.
>> My
>> >feeling is that any cut in rates is just to bring the Fed rate in
>> line with
>> >market rates. Oh yeah, it'll have a psychological value for a while,
>> but
>> >until business starts to turn around, profits start swinging up, and
>> demand
>> >builds, we're in for either a side trending market, a gradual
>> declining
>> >market or a sharp decline, ala 1987. I think we're going to have the
>> side
>> >trending market for a bit and then something will set off a sharp
>> decline,
>> >FWIW.
>> >
>> >Guy
>> >
>> >
>> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
>> >> Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 5:16 PM
>> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Guy,
>> >> Even with today's great move, the DJIA is only at the mid
>> point
>> >> of my down trend channel. This could get interesting - correction
>> >> over or bear trap <G>.
>> >>
>> >> Jim
>> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> Date: Monday, September 07, 1998 8:25 PM
>> >> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> >Jim
>> >> >
>> >> >While I haven't seen a bottoming out of the market, it did hit one
>> of
>> >> my
>> >> >support points and bounce up. Basis S&P futures, we could get a
>> >> sizable
>> >> >move up and still be in a downward trending market.
>> >> >
>> >> >That's what makes this fun, trying to figure out where we're
>> really
>> >> going.
>> >> >I'm sort of looking for a correction back up to unload the rest of
>> my
>> >> dogs
>> >> >at this time and watch for an opportunity to buy some OTM Puts.
>> >> >
>> >> >Regards
>> >> >
>> >> >Guy
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
>> >> >> Sent: Monday, September 07, 1998 9:59 AM
>> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Guy,
>> >> >> I certainly agree that the current trend is down. What I'm
>> >> >> uncertain about is whether it is bottoming or just gathering
>> steam.
>> >> I
>> >> >> guess only time will tell and the smart thing to do is to be
>> ready
>> >> to
>> >> >> take advantage of either.
>> >> >> I think my basic problem is that I just get itchy sitting on a
>> >> large
>> >> >> cash position <G>.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Jim
>> >> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> >> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> >> Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 6:59 PM
>> >> >> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> >Jim
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >I don't think that the Fed will so anything with rates until
>> past
>> >> the
>> >> >> time
>> >> >> >when the cut would be helpful, if the past has anything to
>> offer
>> >> <G>.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >My thought is that we have entered a downward trending market
>> for
>> >> a
>> >> >> time and
>> >> >> >until some of the basic economics change, I don't see much hope
>> >> for a
>> >> >> >resumption of the bull move, at this time.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >Now this doesn't mean that I'm calling for the bear of all
>> >> markets,
>> >> >> etc.,
>> >> >> >just that we are going to be in for a very rough ride, both up
>> and
>> >> >> down. We
>> >> >> >are normally able to call the major market turning points,
>> however
>> >> >> our
>> >> >> >system missed this one. Actually, since we are contrarians,
>> what
>> >> I
>> >> >> should
>> >> >> >be saying is that most markets have an upside (or downside)
>> move
>> >> that
>> >> >> lets
>> >> >> >us get short or long. In this market, our indicator told us
>> the
>> >> move
>> >> >> up was
>> >> >> >'too powerful' to implement our sales and we needed to wait.
>> >> Wrong
>> >> >> answer
>> >> >> ><ggg>.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >While we're not funnymentalists, I do think that some of the
>> >> >> underpinnings
>> >> >> >of the market have changed. I am in the process of modifying
>> our
>> >> >> trading
>> >> >> >rules, from ones that assumed an upward trend, to one that
>> assumes
>> >> a
>> >> >> >downward trend.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >Right now, the floor traders must be raking it in with these
>> >> 300/400
>> >> >> point
>> >> >> >swing days.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >Regards
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >Guy
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> >> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim
>> Greening
>> >> >> >> Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 9:24 AM
>> >> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> Guy,
>> >> >> >> I think a Fed rate cut would goose the market for at
>> least
>> >> a
>> >> >> week
>> >> >> >> or two. However, I don't think we will get one unless the
>> >> market
>> >> >> goes
>> >> >> >> into free fall next week and I don't really expect that to
>> >> happen.
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> Jim
>> >> >> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> >> >> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> >> >> Date: Saturday, September 05, 1998 9:33 PM
>> >> >> >> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> >Steve
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >And I was impressed when my 8 year old learned to spell
>> >> >> echolocation
>> >> >> >> when
>> >> >> >> >studying whales <G>.
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >I'm still waiting for this market to settle down and my
>> system
>> >> to
>> >> >> get
>> >> >> >> back
>> >> >> >> >on track. We haven't been out of the market this long for
>> >> years.
>> >> >> In
>> >> >> >> fact,
>> >> >> >> >we're going to add some more capital to play this from the
>> >> >> downside
>> >> >> >> as
>> >> >> >> >opposed to buying on dips. I want to shovel it to them on
>> >> >> rallies.
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >Did you save the article from the Thursday (?) Journal
>> >> regarding
>> >> >> all
>> >> >> >> the
>> >> >> >> >'bear' markets for the last umpteen years, how long to the
>> >> trough
>> >> >> and
>> >> >> >> number
>> >> >> >> >of years to regain the market position and price when they
>> took
>> >> a
>> >> >> >> dump?
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >We're still looking for 6000 on the DOW, but I'm really
>> hoping
>> >> for
>> >> >> a
>> >> >> >> rally
>> >> >> >> >to get in. Maybe Greenspan will cut interest rates by a
>> >> quarter
>> >> >> >> point.
>> >> >> >> >WOW! Like it matters...
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >Regards
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >Guy
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> >> >> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> >> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
>> >> Karnish
>> >> >> >> >> Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
>> >> >> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> >> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> >> Guy,
>> >> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> >> I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he
>> said:
>> >> >> >> >> "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
>> >> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> >> If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big
>> stretch
>> >> of
>> >> >> >> >> the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
>> >> >> >> >> invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
>> >> >> >> >> withdrawals...how will that affect the market?
>> Duhhhhhhhh.
>> >> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> >> Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have
>> >> never
>> >> >> >> >> seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
>> >> traders)
>> >> >> >> >> all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they
>> >> have
>> >> >> >> >> refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey
>> man,
>> >> we
>> >> >> >> >> can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy
>> my
>> >> >> >> >> year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
>> >> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> >> Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid
>> >> July
>> >> >> >> >> are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for
>> the
>> >> >> >> >> long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds
>> in
>> >> >> >> >> record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8
>> year
>> >> >> >> >> Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share
>> and
>> >> vow
>> >> >> >> >> "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu
>> all
>> >> >> >> >> over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22
>> >> month
>> >> >> >> >> bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I
>> know
>> >> >> >> >> you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
>> >> neighborly
>> >> >> >> >> stories).
>> >> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> >> For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your
>> arguments.
>> >> >> >> >> Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled
>> a
>> >> >> >> >> stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this
>> week.
>> >> >> >> >> Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long
>> the
>> >> Can
>> >> >> >> >> $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows
>> Monday
>> >> or
>> >> >> >> >> Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on
>> Friday
>> >> and
>> >> >> >> >> then again on Monday.
>> >> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> >> So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home.
>> Two
>> >> >> >> >> weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we
>> even
>> >> get
>> >> >> >> >> to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
>> >> >> >> >> Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps
>> for
>> >> >> >> >> $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your
>> heart
>> >> (and
>> >> >> >> >> steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
>> tick,
>> >> >> >> >> tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
>> >> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> >> Steve Karnish
>> >> >> >> >> CCT
>> >> >> >> >> ----------
>> >> >> >> >> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> >> >> >> > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> >> >> >> > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >> >> >> >> > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
>> >> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >> > This is a personal note about the market and various
>> >> investor
>> >> >> >> >> thoughts.
>> >> >> >> >> > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
>> >> SIMS
>> >> >> >> >> <G>.
>> >> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >> > Background..
>> >> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >> > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy
>> for
>> >> the
>> >> >> >> >> bull market.
>> >> >> >> >> > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For
>> those
>> >> of
>> >> >> >> >> you who don't
>> >> >> >> >> > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
>> >> youth,
>> >> >> >> >> but he managed
>> >> >> >> >> > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By
>> the
>> >> >> >> >> time he was 40,
>> >> >> >> >> > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view
>> even).
>> >> >> >> >> Married a cute
>> >> >> >> >> > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend
>> >> (or
>> >> >> >> >> second best, if
>> >> >> >> >> > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally
>> met
>> >> >> >> >> Stan. Through
>> >> >> >> >> > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So
>> >> I've
>> >> >> >> >> known Stan for
>> >> >> >> >> > 6 1/2 years.
>> >> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >> > Stan's Market Philosophy
>> >> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >> > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His
>> wife
>> >> is
>> >> >> >> >> perfect for
>> >> >> >> >> > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
>> >> >> >> >> Anyway, Stan is a
>> >> >> >> >> > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told.
>> He
>> >> >> >> >> currently makes
>> >> >> >> >> > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't
>> ask
>> >> me
>> >> >> >> >> how? We make
>> >> >> >> >> > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
>> >> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >> > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
>> >> excess
>> >> >> >> >> cash into
>> >> >> >> >> > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
>> >> >> >> >> international exposures,
>> >> >> >> >> > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
>> >> discussed
>> >> >> >> >> the various
>> >> >> >> >> > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
>> >> different
>> >> >> >> >> planets. His
>> >> >> >> >> > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in
>> it
>> >> for
>> >> >> >> >> the long pull
>> >> >> >> >> > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt
>> that
>> >> >> >> >> the last few
>> >> >> >> >> > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able
>> to
>> >> >> >> >> maintain a 10% per
>> >> >> >> >> > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
>> >> investor
>> >> >> >> >> with their
>> >> >> >> >> > 401k investments.
>> >> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >> > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to
>> forgo
>> >> >> >> >> putting any more
>> >> >> >> >> > money into his various funds. He has started investing
>> all
>> >> of
>> >> >> >> >> his new
>> >> >> >> >> > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand
>> >> that
>> >> >> >> >> he is not
>> >> >> >> >> > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not
>> adding
>> >> >> >> >> anything new.
>> >> >> >> >> > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
>> >> >> >> >> refuses to look at
>> >> >> >> >> > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
>> >> >> >> >> substantially less
>> >> >> >> >> > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect
>> himself
>> >> >> >> >> and not keep all
>> >> >> >> >> > of his eggs in one basket.
>> >> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >> > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents
>> the
>> >> >> >> >> average American,
>> >> >> >> >> > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond
>> >> funds
>> >> >> >> >> and banks
>> >> >> >> >> > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
>> >> available
>> >> >> >> >> for lending and
>> >> >> >> >> > no where to go.
>> >> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >> > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of
>> >> his
>> >> >> >> >> current fund
>> >> >> >> >> > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year
>> >> ago,
>> >> >> >> >> that the
>> >> >> >> >> > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
>> >> they're
>> >> >> >> >> in a bear
>> >> >> >> >> > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
>> >> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >> > Regards
>> >> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> >> > Guy
>> >> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >
>>
>>
>>
>
>
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