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Jim
I'll start watching for that <G>.
Guy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
> Sent: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 5:11 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> Guy,
> The market could be trying to set up a DJIA 7500-8000 trading
> range. Now if it just continues to move from top to bottom every
> couple of days we can all get rich <G>.
>
> Jim
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 7:14 PM
> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> >Jim
> >
> >It's about 2/3 of the way up mine. About 40 S&P points to go to hit
> the
> >peak this week.
> >
> >I would be surprised to see it end as I don't see any funnymentals
> that
> >would support this. Of course I didn't see how Greenspan's comments
> would
> >have triggered such a rally on Monday, either. FWIW, IMHO an
> interest rate
> >hike is only of value if there is demand for the money. It appears
> that
> >there is substantially more money than demand for it, and that some
> >fundamental changes need to occur for this to have a lasting impact.
> My
> >feeling is that any cut in rates is just to bring the Fed rate in
> line with
> >market rates. Oh yeah, it'll have a psychological value for a while,
> but
> >until business starts to turn around, profits start swinging up, and
> demand
> >builds, we're in for either a side trending market, a gradual
> declining
> >market or a sharp decline, ala 1987. I think we're going to have the
> side
> >trending market for a bit and then something will set off a sharp
> decline,
> >FWIW.
> >
> >Guy
> >
> >
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
> >> Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 5:16 PM
> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >>
> >>
> >> Guy,
> >> Even with today's great move, the DJIA is only at the mid
> point
> >> of my down trend channel. This could get interesting - correction
> >> over or bear trap <G>.
> >>
> >> Jim
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> Date: Monday, September 07, 1998 8:25 PM
> >> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >>
> >>
> >> >Jim
> >> >
> >> >While I haven't seen a bottoming out of the market, it did hit one
> of
> >> my
> >> >support points and bounce up. Basis S&P futures, we could get a
> >> sizable
> >> >move up and still be in a downward trending market.
> >> >
> >> >That's what makes this fun, trying to figure out where we're
> really
> >> going.
> >> >I'm sort of looking for a correction back up to unload the rest of
> my
> >> dogs
> >> >at this time and watch for an opportunity to buy some OTM Puts.
> >> >
> >> >Regards
> >> >
> >> >Guy
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
> >> >> Sent: Monday, September 07, 1998 9:59 AM
> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> Guy,
> >> >> I certainly agree that the current trend is down. What I'm
> >> >> uncertain about is whether it is bottoming or just gathering
> steam.
> >> I
> >> >> guess only time will tell and the smart thing to do is to be
> ready
> >> to
> >> >> take advantage of either.
> >> >> I think my basic problem is that I just get itchy sitting on a
> >> large
> >> >> cash position <G>.
> >> >>
> >> >> Jim
> >> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> >> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> >> Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 6:59 PM
> >> >> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> >Jim
> >> >> >
> >> >> >I don't think that the Fed will so anything with rates until
> past
> >> the
> >> >> time
> >> >> >when the cut would be helpful, if the past has anything to
> offer
> >> <G>.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >My thought is that we have entered a downward trending market
> for
> >> a
> >> >> time and
> >> >> >until some of the basic economics change, I don't see much hope
> >> for a
> >> >> >resumption of the bull move, at this time.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Now this doesn't mean that I'm calling for the bear of all
> >> markets,
> >> >> etc.,
> >> >> >just that we are going to be in for a very rough ride, both up
> and
> >> >> down. We
> >> >> >are normally able to call the major market turning points,
> however
> >> >> our
> >> >> >system missed this one. Actually, since we are contrarians,
> what
> >> I
> >> >> should
> >> >> >be saying is that most markets have an upside (or downside)
> move
> >> that
> >> >> lets
> >> >> >us get short or long. In this market, our indicator told us
> the
> >> move
> >> >> up was
> >> >> >'too powerful' to implement our sales and we needed to wait.
> >> Wrong
> >> >> answer
> >> >> ><ggg>.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >While we're not funnymentalists, I do think that some of the
> >> >> underpinnings
> >> >> >of the market have changed. I am in the process of modifying
> our
> >> >> trading
> >> >> >rules, from ones that assumed an upward trend, to one that
> assumes
> >> a
> >> >> >downward trend.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Right now, the floor traders must be raking it in with these
> >> 300/400
> >> >> point
> >> >> >swing days.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Regards
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Guy
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> >> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim
> Greening
> >> >> >> Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 9:24 AM
> >> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Guy,
> >> >> >> I think a Fed rate cut would goose the market for at
> least
> >> a
> >> >> week
> >> >> >> or two. However, I don't think we will get one unless the
> >> market
> >> >> goes
> >> >> >> into free fall next week and I don't really expect that to
> >> happen.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Jim
> >> >> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> >> >> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> >> >> Date: Saturday, September 05, 1998 9:33 PM
> >> >> >> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >Steve
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >And I was impressed when my 8 year old learned to spell
> >> >> echolocation
> >> >> >> when
> >> >> >> >studying whales <G>.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >I'm still waiting for this market to settle down and my
> system
> >> to
> >> >> get
> >> >> >> back
> >> >> >> >on track. We haven't been out of the market this long for
> >> years.
> >> >> In
> >> >> >> fact,
> >> >> >> >we're going to add some more capital to play this from the
> >> >> downside
> >> >> >> as
> >> >> >> >opposed to buying on dips. I want to shovel it to them on
> >> >> rallies.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >Did you save the article from the Thursday (?) Journal
> >> regarding
> >> >> all
> >> >> >> the
> >> >> >> >'bear' markets for the last umpteen years, how long to the
> >> trough
> >> >> and
> >> >> >> number
> >> >> >> >of years to regain the market position and price when they
> took
> >> a
> >> >> >> dump?
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >We're still looking for 6000 on the DOW, but I'm really
> hoping
> >> for
> >> >> a
> >> >> >> rally
> >> >> >> >to get in. Maybe Greenspan will cut interest rates by a
> >> quarter
> >> >> >> point.
> >> >> >> >WOW! Like it matters...
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >Regards
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >Guy
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> >> >> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> >> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> >> Karnish
> >> >> >> >> Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> >> >> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> >> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> Guy,
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he
> said:
> >> >> >> >> "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big
> stretch
> >> of
> >> >> >> >> the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
> >> >> >> >> invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> >> >> >> >> withdrawals...how will that affect the market?
> Duhhhhhhhh.
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have
> >> never
> >> >> >> >> seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
> >> traders)
> >> >> >> >> all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they
> >> have
> >> >> >> >> refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey
> man,
> >> we
> >> >> >> >> can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy
> my
> >> >> >> >> year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid
> >> July
> >> >> >> >> are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for
> the
> >> >> >> >> long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds
> in
> >> >> >> >> record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8
> year
> >> >> >> >> Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share
> and
> >> vow
> >> >> >> >> "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu
> all
> >> >> >> >> over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22
> >> month
> >> >> >> >> bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I
> know
> >> >> >> >> you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
> >> neighborly
> >> >> >> >> stories).
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your
> arguments.
> >> >> >> >> Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled
> a
> >> >> >> >> stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this
> week.
> >> >> >> >> Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long
> the
> >> Can
> >> >> >> >> $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows
> Monday
> >> or
> >> >> >> >> Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on
> Friday
> >> and
> >> >> >> >> then again on Monday.
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home.
> Two
> >> >> >> >> weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we
> even
> >> get
> >> >> >> >> to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> >> >> >> >> Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps
> for
> >> >> >> >> $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your
> heart
> >> (and
> >> >> >> >> steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
> tick,
> >> >> >> >> tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> Steve Karnish
> >> >> >> >> CCT
> >> >> >> >> ----------
> >> >> >> >> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> >> >> >> > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> >> >> >> > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> >> >> >> > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> > This is a personal note about the market and various
> >> investor
> >> >> >> >> thoughts.
> >> >> >> >> > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
> >> SIMS
> >> >> >> >> <G>.
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> > Background..
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy
> for
> >> the
> >> >> >> >> bull market.
> >> >> >> >> > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For
> those
> >> of
> >> >> >> >> you who don't
> >> >> >> >> > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
> >> youth,
> >> >> >> >> but he managed
> >> >> >> >> > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By
> the
> >> >> >> >> time he was 40,
> >> >> >> >> > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view
> even).
> >> >> >> >> Married a cute
> >> >> >> >> > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend
> >> (or
> >> >> >> >> second best, if
> >> >> >> >> > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally
> met
> >> >> >> >> Stan. Through
> >> >> >> >> > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So
> >> I've
> >> >> >> >> known Stan for
> >> >> >> >> > 6 1/2 years.
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> > Stan's Market Philosophy
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His
> wife
> >> is
> >> >> >> >> perfect for
> >> >> >> >> > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
> >> >> >> >> Anyway, Stan is a
> >> >> >> >> > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told.
> He
> >> >> >> >> currently makes
> >> >> >> >> > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't
> ask
> >> me
> >> >> >> >> how? We make
> >> >> >> >> > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
> >> excess
> >> >> >> >> cash into
> >> >> >> >> > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> >> >> >> >> international exposures,
> >> >> >> >> > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
> >> discussed
> >> >> >> >> the various
> >> >> >> >> > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
> >> different
> >> >> >> >> planets. His
> >> >> >> >> > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in
> it
> >> for
> >> >> >> >> the long pull
> >> >> >> >> > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt
> that
> >> >> >> >> the last few
> >> >> >> >> > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able
> to
> >> >> >> >> maintain a 10% per
> >> >> >> >> > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
> >> investor
> >> >> >> >> with their
> >> >> >> >> > 401k investments.
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to
> forgo
> >> >> >> >> putting any more
> >> >> >> >> > money into his various funds. He has started investing
> all
> >> of
> >> >> >> >> his new
> >> >> >> >> > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand
> >> that
> >> >> >> >> he is not
> >> >> >> >> > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not
> adding
> >> >> >> >> anything new.
> >> >> >> >> > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
> >> >> >> >> refuses to look at
> >> >> >> >> > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> >> >> >> >> substantially less
> >> >> >> >> > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect
> himself
> >> >> >> >> and not keep all
> >> >> >> >> > of his eggs in one basket.
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents
> the
> >> >> >> >> average American,
> >> >> >> >> > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond
> >> funds
> >> >> >> >> and banks
> >> >> >> >> > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
> >> available
> >> >> >> >> for lending and
> >> >> >> >> > no where to go.
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of
> >> his
> >> >> >> >> current fund
> >> >> >> >> > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year
> >> ago,
> >> >> >> >> that the
> >> >> >> >> > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
> >> they're
> >> >> >> >> in a bear
> >> >> >> >> > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> > Regards
> >> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> >> > Guy
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >
>
>
>
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