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Guy,
The market could be trying to set up a DJIA 7500-8000 trading
range. Now if it just continues to move from top to bottom every
couple of days we can all get rich <G>.
Jim
-----Original Message-----
From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 7:14 PM
Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>Jim
>
>It's about 2/3 of the way up mine. About 40 S&P points to go to hit
the
>peak this week.
>
>I would be surprised to see it end as I don't see any funnymentals
that
>would support this. Of course I didn't see how Greenspan's comments
would
>have triggered such a rally on Monday, either. FWIW, IMHO an
interest rate
>hike is only of value if there is demand for the money. It appears
that
>there is substantially more money than demand for it, and that some
>fundamental changes need to occur for this to have a lasting impact.
My
>feeling is that any cut in rates is just to bring the Fed rate in
line with
>market rates. Oh yeah, it'll have a psychological value for a while,
but
>until business starts to turn around, profits start swinging up, and
demand
>builds, we're in for either a side trending market, a gradual
declining
>market or a sharp decline, ala 1987. I think we're going to have the
side
>trending market for a bit and then something will set off a sharp
decline,
>FWIW.
>
>Guy
>
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
>> Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 5:16 PM
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>>
>>
>> Guy,
>> Even with today's great move, the DJIA is only at the mid
point
>> of my down trend channel. This could get interesting - correction
>> over or bear trap <G>.
>>
>> Jim
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Monday, September 07, 1998 8:25 PM
>> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>>
>>
>> >Jim
>> >
>> >While I haven't seen a bottoming out of the market, it did hit one
of
>> my
>> >support points and bounce up. Basis S&P futures, we could get a
>> sizable
>> >move up and still be in a downward trending market.
>> >
>> >That's what makes this fun, trying to figure out where we're
really
>> going.
>> >I'm sort of looking for a correction back up to unload the rest of
my
>> dogs
>> >at this time and watch for an opportunity to buy some OTM Puts.
>> >
>> >Regards
>> >
>> >Guy
>> >
>> >
>> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
>> >> Sent: Monday, September 07, 1998 9:59 AM
>> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Guy,
>> >> I certainly agree that the current trend is down. What I'm
>> >> uncertain about is whether it is bottoming or just gathering
steam.
>> I
>> >> guess only time will tell and the smart thing to do is to be
ready
>> to
>> >> take advantage of either.
>> >> I think my basic problem is that I just get itchy sitting on a
>> large
>> >> cash position <G>.
>> >>
>> >> Jim
>> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 6:59 PM
>> >> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> >Jim
>> >> >
>> >> >I don't think that the Fed will so anything with rates until
past
>> the
>> >> time
>> >> >when the cut would be helpful, if the past has anything to
offer
>> <G>.
>> >> >
>> >> >My thought is that we have entered a downward trending market
for
>> a
>> >> time and
>> >> >until some of the basic economics change, I don't see much hope
>> for a
>> >> >resumption of the bull move, at this time.
>> >> >
>> >> >Now this doesn't mean that I'm calling for the bear of all
>> markets,
>> >> etc.,
>> >> >just that we are going to be in for a very rough ride, both up
and
>> >> down. We
>> >> >are normally able to call the major market turning points,
however
>> >> our
>> >> >system missed this one. Actually, since we are contrarians,
what
>> I
>> >> should
>> >> >be saying is that most markets have an upside (or downside)
move
>> that
>> >> lets
>> >> >us get short or long. In this market, our indicator told us
the
>> move
>> >> up was
>> >> >'too powerful' to implement our sales and we needed to wait.
>> Wrong
>> >> answer
>> >> ><ggg>.
>> >> >
>> >> >While we're not funnymentalists, I do think that some of the
>> >> underpinnings
>> >> >of the market have changed. I am in the process of modifying
our
>> >> trading
>> >> >rules, from ones that assumed an upward trend, to one that
assumes
>> a
>> >> >downward trend.
>> >> >
>> >> >Right now, the floor traders must be raking it in with these
>> 300/400
>> >> point
>> >> >swing days.
>> >> >
>> >> >Regards
>> >> >
>> >> >Guy
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim
Greening
>> >> >> Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 9:24 AM
>> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Guy,
>> >> >> I think a Fed rate cut would goose the market for at
least
>> a
>> >> week
>> >> >> or two. However, I don't think we will get one unless the
>> market
>> >> goes
>> >> >> into free fall next week and I don't really expect that to
>> happen.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Jim
>> >> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> >> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> >> Date: Saturday, September 05, 1998 9:33 PM
>> >> >> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> >Steve
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >And I was impressed when my 8 year old learned to spell
>> >> echolocation
>> >> >> when
>> >> >> >studying whales <G>.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >I'm still waiting for this market to settle down and my
system
>> to
>> >> get
>> >> >> back
>> >> >> >on track. We haven't been out of the market this long for
>> years.
>> >> In
>> >> >> fact,
>> >> >> >we're going to add some more capital to play this from the
>> >> downside
>> >> >> as
>> >> >> >opposed to buying on dips. I want to shovel it to them on
>> >> rallies.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >Did you save the article from the Thursday (?) Journal
>> regarding
>> >> all
>> >> >> the
>> >> >> >'bear' markets for the last umpteen years, how long to the
>> trough
>> >> and
>> >> >> number
>> >> >> >of years to regain the market position and price when they
took
>> a
>> >> >> dump?
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >We're still looking for 6000 on the DOW, but I'm really
hoping
>> for
>> >> a
>> >> >> rally
>> >> >> >to get in. Maybe Greenspan will cut interest rates by a
>> quarter
>> >> >> point.
>> >> >> >WOW! Like it matters...
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >Regards
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >Guy
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> >> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
>> Karnish
>> >> >> >> Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
>> >> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> Guy,
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he
said:
>> >> >> >> "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big
stretch
>> of
>> >> >> >> the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
>> >> >> >> invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
>> >> >> >> withdrawals...how will that affect the market?
Duhhhhhhhh.
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have
>> never
>> >> >> >> seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
>> traders)
>> >> >> >> all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they
>> have
>> >> >> >> refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey
man,
>> we
>> >> >> >> can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy
my
>> >> >> >> year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid
>> July
>> >> >> >> are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for
the
>> >> >> >> long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds
in
>> >> >> >> record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8
year
>> >> >> >> Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share
and
>> vow
>> >> >> >> "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu
all
>> >> >> >> over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22
>> month
>> >> >> >> bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I
know
>> >> >> >> you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
>> neighborly
>> >> >> >> stories).
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your
arguments.
>> >> >> >> Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled
a
>> >> >> >> stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this
week.
>> >> >> >> Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long
the
>> Can
>> >> >> >> $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows
Monday
>> or
>> >> >> >> Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on
Friday
>> and
>> >> >> >> then again on Monday.
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home.
Two
>> >> >> >> weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we
even
>> get
>> >> >> >> to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
>> >> >> >> Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps
for
>> >> >> >> $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your
heart
>> (and
>> >> >> >> steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
tick,
>> >> >> >> tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >> Steve Karnish
>> >> >> >> CCT
>> >> >> >> ----------
>> >> >> >> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> >> >> > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> >> >> > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >> >> >> > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> > This is a personal note about the market and various
>> investor
>> >> >> >> thoughts.
>> >> >> >> > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
>> SIMS
>> >> >> >> <G>.
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> > Background..
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy
for
>> the
>> >> >> >> bull market.
>> >> >> >> > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For
those
>> of
>> >> >> >> you who don't
>> >> >> >> > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
>> youth,
>> >> >> >> but he managed
>> >> >> >> > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By
the
>> >> >> >> time he was 40,
>> >> >> >> > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view
even).
>> >> >> >> Married a cute
>> >> >> >> > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend
>> (or
>> >> >> >> second best, if
>> >> >> >> > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally
met
>> >> >> >> Stan. Through
>> >> >> >> > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So
>> I've
>> >> >> >> known Stan for
>> >> >> >> > 6 1/2 years.
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> > Stan's Market Philosophy
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His
wife
>> is
>> >> >> >> perfect for
>> >> >> >> > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
>> >> >> >> Anyway, Stan is a
>> >> >> >> > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told.
He
>> >> >> >> currently makes
>> >> >> >> > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't
ask
>> me
>> >> >> >> how? We make
>> >> >> >> > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
>> excess
>> >> >> >> cash into
>> >> >> >> > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
>> >> >> >> international exposures,
>> >> >> >> > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
>> discussed
>> >> >> >> the various
>> >> >> >> > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
>> different
>> >> >> >> planets. His
>> >> >> >> > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in
it
>> for
>> >> >> >> the long pull
>> >> >> >> > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt
that
>> >> >> >> the last few
>> >> >> >> > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able
to
>> >> >> >> maintain a 10% per
>> >> >> >> > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
>> investor
>> >> >> >> with their
>> >> >> >> > 401k investments.
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to
forgo
>> >> >> >> putting any more
>> >> >> >> > money into his various funds. He has started investing
all
>> of
>> >> >> >> his new
>> >> >> >> > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand
>> that
>> >> >> >> he is not
>> >> >> >> > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not
adding
>> >> >> >> anything new.
>> >> >> >> > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
>> >> >> >> refuses to look at
>> >> >> >> > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
>> >> >> >> substantially less
>> >> >> >> > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect
himself
>> >> >> >> and not keep all
>> >> >> >> > of his eggs in one basket.
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents
the
>> >> >> >> average American,
>> >> >> >> > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond
>> funds
>> >> >> >> and banks
>> >> >> >> > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
>> available
>> >> >> >> for lending and
>> >> >> >> > no where to go.
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of
>> his
>> >> >> >> current fund
>> >> >> >> > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year
>> ago,
>> >> >> >> that the
>> >> >> >> > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
>> they're
>> >> >> >> in a bear
>> >> >> >> > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> > Regards
>> >> >> >> >
>> >> >> >> > Guy
>> >> >> >>
>> >> >> >
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >
>>
>>
>>
>
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