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Jim
It's about 2/3 of the way up mine. About 40 S&P points to go to hit the
peak this week.
I would be surprised to see it end as I don't see any funnymentals that
would support this. Of course I didn't see how Greenspan's comments would
have triggered such a rally on Monday, either. FWIW, IMHO an interest rate
hike is only of value if there is demand for the money. It appears that
there is substantially more money than demand for it, and that some
fundamental changes need to occur for this to have a lasting impact. My
feeling is that any cut in rates is just to bring the Fed rate in line with
market rates. Oh yeah, it'll have a psychological value for a while, but
until business starts to turn around, profits start swinging up, and demand
builds, we're in for either a side trending market, a gradual declining
market or a sharp decline, ala 1987. I think we're going to have the side
trending market for a bit and then something will set off a sharp decline,
FWIW.
Guy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
> Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 5:16 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> Guy,
> Even with today's great move, the DJIA is only at the mid point
> of my down trend channel. This could get interesting - correction
> over or bear trap <G>.
>
> Jim
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Monday, September 07, 1998 8:25 PM
> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> >Jim
> >
> >While I haven't seen a bottoming out of the market, it did hit one of
> my
> >support points and bounce up. Basis S&P futures, we could get a
> sizable
> >move up and still be in a downward trending market.
> >
> >That's what makes this fun, trying to figure out where we're really
> going.
> >I'm sort of looking for a correction back up to unload the rest of my
> dogs
> >at this time and watch for an opportunity to buy some OTM Puts.
> >
> >Regards
> >
> >Guy
> >
> >
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
> >> Sent: Monday, September 07, 1998 9:59 AM
> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >>
> >>
> >> Guy,
> >> I certainly agree that the current trend is down. What I'm
> >> uncertain about is whether it is bottoming or just gathering steam.
> I
> >> guess only time will tell and the smart thing to do is to be ready
> to
> >> take advantage of either.
> >> I think my basic problem is that I just get itchy sitting on a
> large
> >> cash position <G>.
> >>
> >> Jim
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 6:59 PM
> >> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >>
> >>
> >> >Jim
> >> >
> >> >I don't think that the Fed will so anything with rates until past
> the
> >> time
> >> >when the cut would be helpful, if the past has anything to offer
> <G>.
> >> >
> >> >My thought is that we have entered a downward trending market for
> a
> >> time and
> >> >until some of the basic economics change, I don't see much hope
> for a
> >> >resumption of the bull move, at this time.
> >> >
> >> >Now this doesn't mean that I'm calling for the bear of all
> markets,
> >> etc.,
> >> >just that we are going to be in for a very rough ride, both up and
> >> down. We
> >> >are normally able to call the major market turning points, however
> >> our
> >> >system missed this one. Actually, since we are contrarians, what
> I
> >> should
> >> >be saying is that most markets have an upside (or downside) move
> that
> >> lets
> >> >us get short or long. In this market, our indicator told us the
> move
> >> up was
> >> >'too powerful' to implement our sales and we needed to wait.
> Wrong
> >> answer
> >> ><ggg>.
> >> >
> >> >While we're not funnymentalists, I do think that some of the
> >> underpinnings
> >> >of the market have changed. I am in the process of modifying our
> >> trading
> >> >rules, from ones that assumed an upward trend, to one that assumes
> a
> >> >downward trend.
> >> >
> >> >Right now, the floor traders must be raking it in with these
> 300/400
> >> point
> >> >swing days.
> >> >
> >> >Regards
> >> >
> >> >Guy
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
> >> >> Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 9:24 AM
> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> Guy,
> >> >> I think a Fed rate cut would goose the market for at least
> a
> >> week
> >> >> or two. However, I don't think we will get one unless the
> market
> >> goes
> >> >> into free fall next week and I don't really expect that to
> happen.
> >> >>
> >> >> Jim
> >> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> >> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> >> Date: Saturday, September 05, 1998 9:33 PM
> >> >> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> >Steve
> >> >> >
> >> >> >And I was impressed when my 8 year old learned to spell
> >> echolocation
> >> >> when
> >> >> >studying whales <G>.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >I'm still waiting for this market to settle down and my system
> to
> >> get
> >> >> back
> >> >> >on track. We haven't been out of the market this long for
> years.
> >> In
> >> >> fact,
> >> >> >we're going to add some more capital to play this from the
> >> downside
> >> >> as
> >> >> >opposed to buying on dips. I want to shovel it to them on
> >> rallies.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Did you save the article from the Thursday (?) Journal
> regarding
> >> all
> >> >> the
> >> >> >'bear' markets for the last umpteen years, how long to the
> trough
> >> and
> >> >> number
> >> >> >of years to regain the market position and price when they took
> a
> >> >> dump?
> >> >> >
> >> >> >We're still looking for 6000 on the DOW, but I'm really hoping
> for
> >> a
> >> >> rally
> >> >> >to get in. Maybe Greenspan will cut interest rates by a
> quarter
> >> >> point.
> >> >> >WOW! Like it matters...
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Regards
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Guy
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> >> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> Karnish
> >> >> >> Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> >> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Guy,
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he said:
> >> >> >> "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big stretch
> of
> >> >> >> the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
> >> >> >> invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> >> >> >> withdrawals...how will that affect the market? Duhhhhhhhh.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have
> never
> >> >> >> seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
> traders)
> >> >> >> all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they
> have
> >> >> >> refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey man,
> we
> >> >> >> can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy my
> >> >> >> year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid
> July
> >> >> >> are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for the
> >> >> >> long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds in
> >> >> >> record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8 year
> >> >> >> Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share and
> vow
> >> >> >> "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu all
> >> >> >> over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22
> month
> >> >> >> bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I know
> >> >> >> you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
> neighborly
> >> >> >> stories).
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your arguments.
> >> >> >> Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled a
> >> >> >> stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this week.
> >> >> >> Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long the
> Can
> >> >> >> $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows Monday
> or
> >> >> >> Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on Friday
> and
> >> >> >> then again on Monday.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home. Two
> >> >> >> weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we even
> get
> >> >> >> to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> >> >> >> Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps for
> >> >> >> $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your heart
> (and
> >> >> >> steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick, tick,
> >> >> >> tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Steve Karnish
> >> >> >> CCT
> >> >> >> ----------
> >> >> >> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> >> >> > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> >> >> > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> >> >> > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > This is a personal note about the market and various
> investor
> >> >> >> thoughts.
> >> >> >> > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
> SIMS
> >> >> >> <G>.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Background..
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy for
> the
> >> >> >> bull market.
> >> >> >> > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For those
> of
> >> >> >> you who don't
> >> >> >> > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
> youth,
> >> >> >> but he managed
> >> >> >> > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By the
> >> >> >> time he was 40,
> >> >> >> > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view even).
> >> >> >> Married a cute
> >> >> >> > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend
> (or
> >> >> >> second best, if
> >> >> >> > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally met
> >> >> >> Stan. Through
> >> >> >> > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So
> I've
> >> >> >> known Stan for
> >> >> >> > 6 1/2 years.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Stan's Market Philosophy
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His wife
> is
> >> >> >> perfect for
> >> >> >> > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
> >> >> >> Anyway, Stan is a
> >> >> >> > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told. He
> >> >> >> currently makes
> >> >> >> > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't ask
> me
> >> >> >> how? We make
> >> >> >> > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
> excess
> >> >> >> cash into
> >> >> >> > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> >> >> >> international exposures,
> >> >> >> > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
> discussed
> >> >> >> the various
> >> >> >> > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
> different
> >> >> >> planets. His
> >> >> >> > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in it
> for
> >> >> >> the long pull
> >> >> >> > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt that
> >> >> >> the last few
> >> >> >> > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able to
> >> >> >> maintain a 10% per
> >> >> >> > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
> investor
> >> >> >> with their
> >> >> >> > 401k investments.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to forgo
> >> >> >> putting any more
> >> >> >> > money into his various funds. He has started investing all
> of
> >> >> >> his new
> >> >> >> > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand
> that
> >> >> >> he is not
> >> >> >> > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not adding
> >> >> >> anything new.
> >> >> >> > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
> >> >> >> refuses to look at
> >> >> >> > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> >> >> >> substantially less
> >> >> >> > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect himself
> >> >> >> and not keep all
> >> >> >> > of his eggs in one basket.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents the
> >> >> >> average American,
> >> >> >> > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond
> funds
> >> >> >> and banks
> >> >> >> > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
> available
> >> >> >> for lending and
> >> >> >> > no where to go.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of
> his
> >> >> >> current fund
> >> >> >> > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year
> ago,
> >> >> >> that the
> >> >> >> > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
> they're
> >> >> >> in a bear
> >> >> >> > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Regards
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Guy
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >
>
>
>
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