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Guy,
Even with today's great move, the DJIA is only at the mid point
of my down trend channel. This could get interesting - correction
over or bear trap <G>.
Jim
-----Original Message-----
From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, September 07, 1998 8:25 PM
Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>Jim
>
>While I haven't seen a bottoming out of the market, it did hit one of
my
>support points and bounce up. Basis S&P futures, we could get a
sizable
>move up and still be in a downward trending market.
>
>That's what makes this fun, trying to figure out where we're really
going.
>I'm sort of looking for a correction back up to unload the rest of my
dogs
>at this time and watch for an opportunity to buy some OTM Puts.
>
>Regards
>
>Guy
>
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
>> Sent: Monday, September 07, 1998 9:59 AM
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>>
>>
>> Guy,
>> I certainly agree that the current trend is down. What I'm
>> uncertain about is whether it is bottoming or just gathering steam.
I
>> guess only time will tell and the smart thing to do is to be ready
to
>> take advantage of either.
>> I think my basic problem is that I just get itchy sitting on a
large
>> cash position <G>.
>>
>> Jim
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 6:59 PM
>> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>>
>>
>> >Jim
>> >
>> >I don't think that the Fed will so anything with rates until past
the
>> time
>> >when the cut would be helpful, if the past has anything to offer
<G>.
>> >
>> >My thought is that we have entered a downward trending market for
a
>> time and
>> >until some of the basic economics change, I don't see much hope
for a
>> >resumption of the bull move, at this time.
>> >
>> >Now this doesn't mean that I'm calling for the bear of all
markets,
>> etc.,
>> >just that we are going to be in for a very rough ride, both up and
>> down. We
>> >are normally able to call the major market turning points, however
>> our
>> >system missed this one. Actually, since we are contrarians, what
I
>> should
>> >be saying is that most markets have an upside (or downside) move
that
>> lets
>> >us get short or long. In this market, our indicator told us the
move
>> up was
>> >'too powerful' to implement our sales and we needed to wait.
Wrong
>> answer
>> ><ggg>.
>> >
>> >While we're not funnymentalists, I do think that some of the
>> underpinnings
>> >of the market have changed. I am in the process of modifying our
>> trading
>> >rules, from ones that assumed an upward trend, to one that assumes
a
>> >downward trend.
>> >
>> >Right now, the floor traders must be raking it in with these
300/400
>> point
>> >swing days.
>> >
>> >Regards
>> >
>> >Guy
>> >
>> >
>> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
>> >> Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 9:24 AM
>> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Guy,
>> >> I think a Fed rate cut would goose the market for at least
a
>> week
>> >> or two. However, I don't think we will get one unless the
market
>> goes
>> >> into free fall next week and I don't really expect that to
happen.
>> >>
>> >> Jim
>> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> Date: Saturday, September 05, 1998 9:33 PM
>> >> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> >Steve
>> >> >
>> >> >And I was impressed when my 8 year old learned to spell
>> echolocation
>> >> when
>> >> >studying whales <G>.
>> >> >
>> >> >I'm still waiting for this market to settle down and my system
to
>> get
>> >> back
>> >> >on track. We haven't been out of the market this long for
years.
>> In
>> >> fact,
>> >> >we're going to add some more capital to play this from the
>> downside
>> >> as
>> >> >opposed to buying on dips. I want to shovel it to them on
>> rallies.
>> >> >
>> >> >Did you save the article from the Thursday (?) Journal
regarding
>> all
>> >> the
>> >> >'bear' markets for the last umpteen years, how long to the
trough
>> and
>> >> number
>> >> >of years to regain the market position and price when they took
a
>> >> dump?
>> >> >
>> >> >We're still looking for 6000 on the DOW, but I'm really hoping
for
>> a
>> >> rally
>> >> >to get in. Maybe Greenspan will cut interest rates by a
quarter
>> >> point.
>> >> >WOW! Like it matters...
>> >> >
>> >> >Regards
>> >> >
>> >> >Guy
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
Karnish
>> >> >> Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
>> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Guy,
>> >> >>
>> >> >> I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he said:
>> >> >> "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
>> >> >>
>> >> >> If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big stretch
of
>> >> >> the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
>> >> >> invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
>> >> >> withdrawals...how will that affect the market? Duhhhhhhhh.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have
never
>> >> >> seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
traders)
>> >> >> all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they
have
>> >> >> refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey man,
we
>> >> >> can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy my
>> >> >> year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid
July
>> >> >> are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for the
>> >> >> long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds in
>> >> >> record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8 year
>> >> >> Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share and
vow
>> >> >> "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu all
>> >> >> over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22
month
>> >> >> bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I know
>> >> >> you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
neighborly
>> >> >> stories).
>> >> >>
>> >> >> For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your arguments.
>> >> >> Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled a
>> >> >> stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this week.
>> >> >> Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long the
Can
>> >> >> $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows Monday
or
>> >> >> Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on Friday
and
>> >> >> then again on Monday.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home. Two
>> >> >> weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we even
get
>> >> >> to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
>> >> >> Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps for
>> >> >> $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your heart
(and
>> >> >> steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick, tick,
>> >> >> tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Steve Karnish
>> >> >> CCT
>> >> >> ----------
>> >> >> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> >> > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> >> > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >> >> > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > This is a personal note about the market and various
investor
>> >> >> thoughts.
>> >> >> > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
SIMS
>> >> >> <G>.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > Background..
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy for
the
>> >> >> bull market.
>> >> >> > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For those
of
>> >> >> you who don't
>> >> >> > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
youth,
>> >> >> but he managed
>> >> >> > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By the
>> >> >> time he was 40,
>> >> >> > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view even).
>> >> >> Married a cute
>> >> >> > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend
(or
>> >> >> second best, if
>> >> >> > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally met
>> >> >> Stan. Through
>> >> >> > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So
I've
>> >> >> known Stan for
>> >> >> > 6 1/2 years.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > Stan's Market Philosophy
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His wife
is
>> >> >> perfect for
>> >> >> > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
>> >> >> Anyway, Stan is a
>> >> >> > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told. He
>> >> >> currently makes
>> >> >> > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't ask
me
>> >> >> how? We make
>> >> >> > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
excess
>> >> >> cash into
>> >> >> > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
>> >> >> international exposures,
>> >> >> > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
discussed
>> >> >> the various
>> >> >> > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
different
>> >> >> planets. His
>> >> >> > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in it
for
>> >> >> the long pull
>> >> >> > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt that
>> >> >> the last few
>> >> >> > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able to
>> >> >> maintain a 10% per
>> >> >> > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
investor
>> >> >> with their
>> >> >> > 401k investments.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to forgo
>> >> >> putting any more
>> >> >> > money into his various funds. He has started investing all
of
>> >> >> his new
>> >> >> > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand
that
>> >> >> he is not
>> >> >> > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not adding
>> >> >> anything new.
>> >> >> > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
>> >> >> refuses to look at
>> >> >> > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
>> >> >> substantially less
>> >> >> > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect himself
>> >> >> and not keep all
>> >> >> > of his eggs in one basket.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents the
>> >> >> average American,
>> >> >> > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond
funds
>> >> >> and banks
>> >> >> > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
available
>> >> >> for lending and
>> >> >> > no where to go.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of
his
>> >> >> current fund
>> >> >> > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year
ago,
>> >> >> that the
>> >> >> > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
they're
>> >> >> in a bear
>> >> >> > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > Regards
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > Guy
>> >> >>
>> >> >
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >
>>
>>
>>
>
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