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Guy,
Skip the details of your software...just send me a large check
and then we can cut out the middle step.
Steve Karnish
CCT
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> From: {USER_FIRSTNAME} {USER_LASTNAME}
<robertbennet@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick
> Date: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 2:55 PM
>
> Please send details on your software.
> Bob
>
> Guy Tann wrote:
>
>
> >
> >
> > DickOn the contrary, our system is definitely not a trend
type
> > system. Our worst years in the last 16 years was 1995, I
think (would
> > have to look it up), where it was up 100%. We are
contrarian
> > traders. Strictly short term. This is the first time we've
been out
> > of a market this long in 16 years. If a move goes against
us, we get
> > stopped out and never trade in that same direction again.
We wait for
> > the opposite signal. The reason is that we play
probabilities. We
> > know that we're going to be right 75% of the time (at least
over the
> > last 16 years).If we get stopped out because the market has
gone x
> > points against us, we know that the odds are that we will
lose money
> > on that trade and not to chase it. Since we were wrong on
the
> > direction of that trade, we assume that all following
signals in that
> > same direction will be wrong. We were stopped out of a long
position
> > in one of the giant market swings on 7/23. We did have a
sell signal,
> > however our system requires something we call a contrary.
That's a
> > measure of the strength of the price move that day. So for
us to go
> > short (remember we're contrarians), we need an up day,
either the day
> > of the signal or the previous day. The contrary we got was
too high
> > and therefore we couldn't go short and needed to wait.
We're still
> > waiting <G>.Just didn't want to leave the impression that we
have a
> > bull or trend following system. Our system is based upon
daily price
> > movement.Emotionally, I am probably more comfortable as a
bear. But
> > that's my personality. Regardless, we just trade our
signals and
> > don't really care about the direction, just that we get a
certain
> > amount of activity. RegardsGuy
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Dick
> > Simmons
> > Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 1:09 AM
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: Weekly Pick
> >
> > Hi John, The only indicator that will work in bull
trends,
> > bear trends and consolidations is that of cycles. Look
at
> > poor old Guy, has a great system for bull markets but
it is
> > not working at present. Cycles go on and on.
Regards,Dick.
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: John Hunter <jhunter@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Tuesday, 8 September 1998 1:31
> > Subject: Re: Weekly Pick
> > Jim,Your confusion is shared by many I believe,
> > certainly by myself. I have tried to address it
> > in the past on this forum with no positive
> > outcome and you have prompted me to try once
> > again. To me the answer to this question is the
> > most important reason why anyone would use
> > Metastock. Take your own system, as I have come to
> > understand it from your many very informative
> > postings. When you see a breakout from a tend
> > occurring what indicator or combination of
> > indicators could be used to reliably predictive
> > that the trend has ended and the stock/commodity
> > price will move in a new direction. I have noted
> > you say in a number of postings that you are
> > forced to wait for sufficient information (ie days
> > of trading) to come in before you can redraw the
> > new price direction.I have played around with a
> > number of indicators, and different combinations
> > of indicators, with the object of finding a system
> > that will reliably signal that and end to the
> > current trend is about to come to an end. For
> > example the daily DOW chart had a stochastic
> > crossover, indicating a sell, in late July and
> > this was confirmed by a moving average crossover
> > shortly after this. (These can be viewed from the
> > http://www.barchart.com page.) Now I know it is
> > not going to be that easy and so your confusion
> > and my question to the group. What indicators are
> > useful in predicting the end of a
> > trend?JH -----Original Message-----
> > From: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Sunday, 6 September 1998 4:42
> > Subject: Weekly Pick
> >
> >
> > All, We got the drop that I was
> > expecting this week, but now I'm
> > confused. Are we in the process of
> > completing a typical four month bull
> > market 20% correction or is this the
> > start of a bear market? I was
> > definitely bearish last week as all the
> > indices were breaking intermediate and
> > long term up trends which confirmed a
> > down trend was in process. That's still
> > the same this week, but I'm getting
> > mixed
> >
signals.......snip..........snip..........snip............snip...
. The
> > internet stocks patterns would support
> > the bear market theory. Since I'm
> > uncertain, my options at this point are
> > to either do nothing or since I'm all
> > cash except for my WCOM put options, I
> > could nibble in both directions.
> > Nibbling is more fun and I have the
> > large cash position for a cushion, so
> > that's what I'm going to do
> >
<G>.......snip..........snip...........snip..........snip......
To
> > me this looks like a typical long term
> > trend reversal pattern. I constructed a
> > standard deviation Short Term Down Trend
> > Channel (STDTC) with the deviation set
> > at 2 from the 8/19/98 high to the 9/1/98
> > low and extended it to the right. The
> > top of the STDTC is at 30 1/2 and the
> > bottom of the channel can't be reached
> > since it is below zero. The
> > fundamentals are what you would expect
> > of an internet stock, 229% sales growth,
> > but negative earnings. It could do
> > great in a bull market, but should get
> > killed in a bear market.
> >
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