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Hello Jim
Could you please send me a chart of your view of the DJIA ?
Thanks
JCarlos
-----Mensagem original-----
De: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Para: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Data: Domingo, 6 de Setembro de 1998 20:23
Assunto: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>Al,
> At this point I don't know what to expect, that's why I'm going
>both ways <G>. My DJIA trend channel says the DJIA should continue to
>fall to just under 7200 before there is any support. However, the
>other indices except for the RUT look like they are trying to bottom
>here.
>
>Jim
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Alton Stephens <astephen@xxxxxxxx>
>To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 2:21 PM
>Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
>>Jim, do you expect a testing of July highs any time soon, or do you
>see
>>continued retracement on the DJIA to 7400 or even lower?
>>
>>
>>Al Stephens
>>astephen@xxxxxxxx
>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
>>> Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 12:24 PM
>>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>>>
>>>
>>> Guy,
>>> I think a Fed rate cut would goose the market for at least a
>week
>>> or two. However, I don't think we will get one unless the market
>goes
>>> into free fall next week and I don't really expect that to happen.
>>>
>>> Jim
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> Date: Saturday, September 05, 1998 9:33 PM
>>> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>>>
>>>
>>> >Steve
>>> >
>>> >And I was impressed when my 8 year old learned to spell
>echolocation
>>> when
>>> >studying whales <G>.
>>> >
>>> >I'm still waiting for this market to settle down and my system to
>get
>>> back
>>> >on track. We haven't been out of the market this long for years.
>In
>>> fact,
>>> >we're going to add some more capital to play this from the
>downside
>>> as
>>> >opposed to buying on dips. I want to shovel it to them on
>rallies.
>>> >
>>> >Did you save the article from the Thursday (?) Journal regarding
>all
>>> the
>>> >'bear' markets for the last umpteen years, how long to the trough
>and
>>> number
>>> >of years to regain the market position and price when they took a
>>> dump?
>>> >
>>> >We're still looking for 6000 on the DOW, but I'm really hoping for
>a
>>> rally
>>> >to get in. Maybe Greenspan will cut interest rates by a quarter
>>> point.
>>> >WOW! Like it matters...
>>> >
>>> >Regards
>>> >
>>> >Guy
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >> -----Original Message-----
>>> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
>>> >> Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
>>> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>>> >>
>>> >>
>>> >> Guy,
>>> >>
>>> >> I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he said:
>>> >> "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
>>> >>
>>> >> If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big stretch of
>>> >> the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
>>> >> invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
>>> >> withdrawals...how will that affect the market? Duhhhhhhhh.
>>> >>
>>> >> Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have never
>>> >> seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not traders)
>>> >> all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they have
>>> >> refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey man, we
>>> >> can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy my
>>> >> year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
>>> >>
>>> >> Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid July
>>> >> are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for the
>>> >> long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds in
>>> >> record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8 year
>>> >> Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share and vow
>>> >> "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu all
>>> >> over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22 month
>>> >> bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I know
>>> >> you were there, and please do keep supplying us with neighborly
>>> >> stories).
>>> >>
>>> >> For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your arguments.
>>> >> Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled a
>>> >> stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this week.
>>> >> Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long the Can
>>> >> $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows Monday or
>>> >> Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on Friday and
>>> >> then again on Monday.
>>> >>
>>> >> So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home. Two
>>> >> weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we even get
>>> >> to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
>>> >> Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps for
>>> >> $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your heart (and
>>> >> steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick, tick,
>>> >> tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
>>> >>
>>> >> Steve Karnish
>>> >> CCT
>>> >> ----------
>>> >> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> >> > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> >> > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>>> >> > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
>>> >> >
>>> >> > This is a personal note about the market and various investor
>>> >> thoughts.
>>> >> > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>>> >> <G>.
>>> >> >
>>> >> > Background..
>>> >> >
>>> >> > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy for the
>>> >> bull market.
>>> >> > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For those of
>>> >> you who don't
>>> >> > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his youth,
>>> >> but he managed
>>> >> > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By the
>>> >> time he was 40,
>>> >> > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view even).
>>> >> Married a cute
>>> >> > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend (or
>>> >> second best, if
>>> >> > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally met
>>> >> Stan. Through
>>> >> > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So I've
>>> >> known Stan for
>>> >> > 6 1/2 years.
>>> >> >
>>> >> > Stan's Market Philosophy
>>> >> >
>>> >> > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His wife is
>>> >> perfect for
>>> >> > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
>>> >> Anyway, Stan is a
>>> >> > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told. He
>>> >> currently makes
>>> >> > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't ask me
>>> >> how? We make
>>> >> > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
>>> >> >
>>> >> > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all excess
>>> >> cash into
>>> >> > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
>>> >> international exposures,
>>> >> > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we discussed
>>> >> the various
>>> >> > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on different
>>> >> planets. His
>>> >> > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in it for
>>> >> the long pull
>>> >> > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt that
>>> >> the last few
>>> >> > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able to
>>> >> maintain a 10% per
>>> >> > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern investor
>>> >> with their
>>> >> > 401k investments.
>>> >> >
>>> >> > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to forgo
>>> >> putting any more
>>> >> > money into his various funds. He has started investing all of
>>> >> his new
>>> >> > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand that
>>> >> he is not
>>> >> > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not adding
>>> >> anything new.
>>> >> > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
>>> >> refuses to look at
>>> >> > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
>>> >> substantially less
>>> >> > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect himself
>>> >> and not keep all
>>> >> > of his eggs in one basket.
>>> >> >
>>> >> > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents the
>>> >> average American,
>>> >> > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond funds
>>> >> and banks
>>> >> > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money available
>>> >> for lending and
>>> >> > no where to go.
>>> >> >
>>> >> > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of his
>>> >> current fund
>>> >> > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year ago,
>>> >> that the
>>> >> > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out they're
>>> >> in a bear
>>> >> > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
>>> >> >
>>> >> > Regards
>>> >> >
>>> >> > Guy
>>> >>
>>> >
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>
>
>
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