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Jim
I don't think that the Fed will so anything with rates until past the time
when the cut would be helpful, if the past has anything to offer <G>.
My thought is that we have entered a downward trending market for a time and
until some of the basic economics change, I don't see much hope for a
resumption of the bull move, at this time.
Now this doesn't mean that I'm calling for the bear of all markets, etc.,
just that we are going to be in for a very rough ride, both up and down. We
are normally able to call the major market turning points, however our
system missed this one. Actually, since we are contrarians, what I should
be saying is that most markets have an upside (or downside) move that lets
us get short or long. In this market, our indicator told us the move up was
'too powerful' to implement our sales and we needed to wait. Wrong answer
<ggg>.
While we're not funnymentalists, I do think that some of the underpinnings
of the market have changed. I am in the process of modifying our trading
rules, from ones that assumed an upward trend, to one that assumes a
downward trend.
Right now, the floor traders must be raking it in with these 300/400 point
swing days.
Regards
Guy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
> Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 9:24 AM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> Guy,
> I think a Fed rate cut would goose the market for at least a week
> or two. However, I don't think we will get one unless the market goes
> into free fall next week and I don't really expect that to happen.
>
> Jim
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Saturday, September 05, 1998 9:33 PM
> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> >Steve
> >
> >And I was impressed when my 8 year old learned to spell echolocation
> when
> >studying whales <G>.
> >
> >I'm still waiting for this market to settle down and my system to get
> back
> >on track. We haven't been out of the market this long for years. In
> fact,
> >we're going to add some more capital to play this from the downside
> as
> >opposed to buying on dips. I want to shovel it to them on rallies.
> >
> >Did you save the article from the Thursday (?) Journal regarding all
> the
> >'bear' markets for the last umpteen years, how long to the trough and
> number
> >of years to regain the market position and price when they took a
> dump?
> >
> >We're still looking for 6000 on the DOW, but I'm really hoping for a
> rally
> >to get in. Maybe Greenspan will cut interest rates by a quarter
> point.
> >WOW! Like it matters...
> >
> >Regards
> >
> >Guy
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> >> Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >>
> >>
> >> Guy,
> >>
> >> I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he said:
> >> "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> >>
> >> If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big stretch of
> >> the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
> >> invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> >> withdrawals...how will that affect the market? Duhhhhhhhh.
> >>
> >> Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have never
> >> seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not traders)
> >> all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they have
> >> refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey man, we
> >> can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy my
> >> year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
> >>
> >> Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid July
> >> are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for the
> >> long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds in
> >> record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8 year
> >> Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share and vow
> >> "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu all
> >> over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22 month
> >> bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I know
> >> you were there, and please do keep supplying us with neighborly
> >> stories).
> >>
> >> For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your arguments.
> >> Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled a
> >> stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this week.
> >> Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long the Can
> >> $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows Monday or
> >> Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on Friday and
> >> then again on Monday.
> >>
> >> So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home. Two
> >> weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we even get
> >> to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> >> Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps for
> >> $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your heart (and
> >> steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick, tick,
> >> tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> >>
> >> Steve Karnish
> >> CCT
> >> ----------
> >> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> >> >
> >> > This is a personal note about the market and various investor
> >> thoughts.
> >> > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> <G>.
> >> >
> >> > Background..
> >> >
> >> > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy for the
> >> bull market.
> >> > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For those of
> >> you who don't
> >> > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his youth,
> >> but he managed
> >> > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By the
> >> time he was 40,
> >> > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view even).
> >> Married a cute
> >> > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend (or
> >> second best, if
> >> > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally met
> >> Stan. Through
> >> > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So I've
> >> known Stan for
> >> > 6 1/2 years.
> >> >
> >> > Stan's Market Philosophy
> >> >
> >> > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His wife is
> >> perfect for
> >> > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
> >> Anyway, Stan is a
> >> > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told. He
> >> currently makes
> >> > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't ask me
> >> how? We make
> >> > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> >> >
> >> > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all excess
> >> cash into
> >> > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> >> international exposures,
> >> > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we discussed
> >> the various
> >> > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on different
> >> planets. His
> >> > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in it for
> >> the long pull
> >> > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt that
> >> the last few
> >> > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able to
> >> maintain a 10% per
> >> > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern investor
> >> with their
> >> > 401k investments.
> >> >
> >> > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to forgo
> >> putting any more
> >> > money into his various funds. He has started investing all of
> >> his new
> >> > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand that
> >> he is not
> >> > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not adding
> >> anything new.
> >> > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
> >> refuses to look at
> >> > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> >> substantially less
> >> > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect himself
> >> and not keep all
> >> > of his eggs in one basket.
> >> >
> >> > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents the
> >> average American,
> >> > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond funds
> >> and banks
> >> > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money available
> >> for lending and
> >> > no where to go.
> >> >
> >> > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of his
> >> current fund
> >> > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year ago,
> >> that the
> >> > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out they're
> >> in a bear
> >> > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> >> >
> >> > Regards
> >> >
> >> > Guy
> >>
> >
>
>
>
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