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Jim, do you expect a testing of July highs any time soon, or do you see
continued retracement on the DJIA to 7400 or even lower?
Al Stephens
astephen@xxxxxxxx
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
> Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 12:24 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> Guy,
> I think a Fed rate cut would goose the market for at least a week
> or two. However, I don't think we will get one unless the market goes
> into free fall next week and I don't really expect that to happen.
>
> Jim
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Saturday, September 05, 1998 9:33 PM
> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> >Steve
> >
> >And I was impressed when my 8 year old learned to spell echolocation
> when
> >studying whales <G>.
> >
> >I'm still waiting for this market to settle down and my system to get
> back
> >on track. We haven't been out of the market this long for years. In
> fact,
> >we're going to add some more capital to play this from the downside
> as
> >opposed to buying on dips. I want to shovel it to them on rallies.
> >
> >Did you save the article from the Thursday (?) Journal regarding all
> the
> >'bear' markets for the last umpteen years, how long to the trough and
> number
> >of years to regain the market position and price when they took a
> dump?
> >
> >We're still looking for 6000 on the DOW, but I'm really hoping for a
> rally
> >to get in. Maybe Greenspan will cut interest rates by a quarter
> point.
> >WOW! Like it matters...
> >
> >Regards
> >
> >Guy
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> >> Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >>
> >>
> >> Guy,
> >>
> >> I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he said:
> >> "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> >>
> >> If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big stretch of
> >> the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
> >> invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> >> withdrawals...how will that affect the market? Duhhhhhhhh.
> >>
> >> Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have never
> >> seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not traders)
> >> all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they have
> >> refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey man, we
> >> can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy my
> >> year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
> >>
> >> Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid July
> >> are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for the
> >> long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds in
> >> record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8 year
> >> Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share and vow
> >> "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu all
> >> over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22 month
> >> bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I know
> >> you were there, and please do keep supplying us with neighborly
> >> stories).
> >>
> >> For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your arguments.
> >> Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled a
> >> stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this week.
> >> Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long the Can
> >> $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows Monday or
> >> Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on Friday and
> >> then again on Monday.
> >>
> >> So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home. Two
> >> weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we even get
> >> to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> >> Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps for
> >> $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your heart (and
> >> steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick, tick,
> >> tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> >>
> >> Steve Karnish
> >> CCT
> >> ----------
> >> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> >> >
> >> > This is a personal note about the market and various investor
> >> thoughts.
> >> > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> <G>.
> >> >
> >> > Background..
> >> >
> >> > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy for the
> >> bull market.
> >> > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For those of
> >> you who don't
> >> > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his youth,
> >> but he managed
> >> > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By the
> >> time he was 40,
> >> > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view even).
> >> Married a cute
> >> > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend (or
> >> second best, if
> >> > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally met
> >> Stan. Through
> >> > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So I've
> >> known Stan for
> >> > 6 1/2 years.
> >> >
> >> > Stan's Market Philosophy
> >> >
> >> > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His wife is
> >> perfect for
> >> > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
> >> Anyway, Stan is a
> >> > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told. He
> >> currently makes
> >> > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't ask me
> >> how? We make
> >> > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> >> >
> >> > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all excess
> >> cash into
> >> > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> >> international exposures,
> >> > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we discussed
> >> the various
> >> > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on different
> >> planets. His
> >> > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in it for
> >> the long pull
> >> > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt that
> >> the last few
> >> > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able to
> >> maintain a 10% per
> >> > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern investor
> >> with their
> >> > 401k investments.
> >> >
> >> > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to forgo
> >> putting any more
> >> > money into his various funds. He has started investing all of
> >> his new
> >> > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand that
> >> he is not
> >> > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not adding
> >> anything new.
> >> > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
> >> refuses to look at
> >> > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> >> substantially less
> >> > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect himself
> >> and not keep all
> >> > of his eggs in one basket.
> >> >
> >> > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents the
> >> average American,
> >> > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond funds
> >> and banks
> >> > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money available
> >> for lending and
> >> > no where to go.
> >> >
> >> > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of his
> >> current fund
> >> > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year ago,
> >> that the
> >> > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out they're
> >> in a bear
> >> > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> >> >
> >> > Regards
> >> >
> >> > Guy
> >>
> >
>
>
>
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