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Guy,
I think a Fed rate cut would goose the market for at least a week
or two. However, I don't think we will get one unless the market goes
into free fall next week and I don't really expect that to happen.
Jim
-----Original Message-----
From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, September 05, 1998 9:33 PM
Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>Steve
>
>And I was impressed when my 8 year old learned to spell echolocation
when
>studying whales <G>.
>
>I'm still waiting for this market to settle down and my system to get
back
>on track. We haven't been out of the market this long for years. In
fact,
>we're going to add some more capital to play this from the downside
as
>opposed to buying on dips. I want to shovel it to them on rallies.
>
>Did you save the article from the Thursday (?) Journal regarding all
the
>'bear' markets for the last umpteen years, how long to the trough and
number
>of years to regain the market position and price when they took a
dump?
>
>We're still looking for 6000 on the DOW, but I'm really hoping for a
rally
>to get in. Maybe Greenspan will cut interest rates by a quarter
point.
>WOW! Like it matters...
>
>Regards
>
>Guy
>
>
>
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
>> Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>>
>>
>> Guy,
>>
>> I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he said:
>> "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
>>
>> If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big stretch of
>> the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
>> invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
>> withdrawals...how will that affect the market? Duhhhhhhhh.
>>
>> Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have never
>> seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not traders)
>> all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they have
>> refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey man, we
>> can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy my
>> year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
>>
>> Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid July
>> are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for the
>> long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds in
>> record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8 year
>> Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share and vow
>> "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu all
>> over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22 month
>> bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I know
>> you were there, and please do keep supplying us with neighborly
>> stories).
>>
>> For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your arguments.
>> Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled a
>> stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this week.
>> Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long the Can
>> $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows Monday or
>> Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on Friday and
>> then again on Monday.
>>
>> So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home. Two
>> weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we even get
>> to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
>> Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps for
>> $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your heart (and
>> steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick, tick,
>> tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
>>
>> Steve Karnish
>> CCT
>> ----------
>> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
>> >
>> > This is a personal note about the market and various investor
>> thoughts.
>> > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> <G>.
>> >
>> > Background..
>> >
>> > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy for the
>> bull market.
>> > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For those of
>> you who don't
>> > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his youth,
>> but he managed
>> > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By the
>> time he was 40,
>> > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view even).
>> Married a cute
>> > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend (or
>> second best, if
>> > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally met
>> Stan. Through
>> > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So I've
>> known Stan for
>> > 6 1/2 years.
>> >
>> > Stan's Market Philosophy
>> >
>> > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His wife is
>> perfect for
>> > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
>> Anyway, Stan is a
>> > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told. He
>> currently makes
>> > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't ask me
>> how? We make
>> > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
>> >
>> > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all excess
>> cash into
>> > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
>> international exposures,
>> > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we discussed
>> the various
>> > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on different
>> planets. His
>> > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in it for
>> the long pull
>> > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt that
>> the last few
>> > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able to
>> maintain a 10% per
>> > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern investor
>> with their
>> > 401k investments.
>> >
>> > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to forgo
>> putting any more
>> > money into his various funds. He has started investing all of
>> his new
>> > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand that
>> he is not
>> > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not adding
>> anything new.
>> > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
>> refuses to look at
>> > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
>> substantially less
>> > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect himself
>> and not keep all
>> > of his eggs in one basket.
>> >
>> > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents the
>> average American,
>> > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond funds
>> and banks
>> > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money available
>> for lending and
>> > no where to go.
>> >
>> > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of his
>> current fund
>> > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year ago,
>> that the
>> > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out they're
>> in a bear
>> > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
>> >
>> > Regards
>> >
>> > Guy
>>
>
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