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OK Steve
Now I'm confused. What's the date???? October 5 or the third week of
September???
The market held our support price, basis S&P futures of 936. The upside
channel resistance is 1076 (approx.). If we get anywhere near there, I plan
on buying a bunch of Out of the Money Puts and hold on.
I see a possible range for the S&P of 140 points and this translates to 1260
Dow points (approx.), I think. If we do get a run up to anywhere that
level, it might be worth it to 'take a shot'. This weeks S&P support
(again, I'm talking futures prices here) is 941 (approx.). Any breakout
below that number, even interday, could mean a target of 867 (approx.).
That would be the equivalent of 981 Dow points down from the close Friday.
These are just some of the numbers I'm reading from my charts. I haven't
looked at calculating a 'bottom'.
Guy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> Guy,
>
> I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he said:
> "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
>
> If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big stretch of
> the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
> invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> withdrawals...how will that affect the market? Duhhhhhhhh.
>
> Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have never
> seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not traders)
> all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they have
> refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey man, we
> can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy my
> year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
>
> Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid July
> are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for the
> long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds in
> record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8 year
> Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share and vow
> "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu all
> over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22 month
> bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I know
> you were there, and please do keep supplying us with neighborly
> stories).
>
> For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your arguments.
> Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled a
> stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this week.
> Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long the Can
> $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows Monday or
> Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on Friday and
> then again on Monday.
>
> So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home. Two
> weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we even get
> to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps for
> $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your heart (and
> steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick, tick,
> tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
>
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
> ----------
> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> >
> > This is a personal note about the market and various investor
> thoughts.
> > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> <G>.
> >
> > Background..
> >
> > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy for the
> bull market.
> > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For those of
> you who don't
> > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his youth,
> but he managed
> > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By the
> time he was 40,
> > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view even).
> Married a cute
> > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend (or
> second best, if
> > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally met
> Stan. Through
> > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So I've
> known Stan for
> > 6 1/2 years.
> >
> > Stan's Market Philosophy
> >
> > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His wife is
> perfect for
> > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
> Anyway, Stan is a
> > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told. He
> currently makes
> > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't ask me
> how? We make
> > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> >
> > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all excess
> cash into
> > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> international exposures,
> > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we discussed
> the various
> > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on different
> planets. His
> > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in it for
> the long pull
> > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt that
> the last few
> > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able to
> maintain a 10% per
> > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern investor
> with their
> > 401k investments.
> >
> > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to forgo
> putting any more
> > money into his various funds. He has started investing all of
> his new
> > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand that
> he is not
> > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not adding
> anything new.
> > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
> refuses to look at
> > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> substantially less
> > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect himself
> and not keep all
> > of his eggs in one basket.
> >
> > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents the
> average American,
> > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond funds
> and banks
> > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money available
> for lending and
> > no where to go.
> >
> > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of his
> current fund
> > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year ago,
> that the
> > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out they're
> in a bear
> > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> >
> > Regards
> >
> > Guy
>
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