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Steve
Some people will claim the latest bull market started in 1865 at the end
of the civil war. Therefore as the talking heads still see a "correction
in a bull market."
John
Steve Karnish wrote:
>
> Tom,
> I'll reply to most of your questions privately, but I thought
> the list might enjoy an "intraday peek" (basis the September
> Dow), using MS6.51 & candlesticks. File attachment "candles"
> illustrates the classic "evening star" pattern that kicked off
> the selling this morning. "Candles2" shows the market forming
> three "shooting stars" prior to accelerating the decline this
> afternoon. Maybe I'm just seeing things. You be the judge.
> The TV talking heads are still talking about this being a
> "correction in a bull market".
>
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
> ----------
> > From: Tom Strickland <tstrickland@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: commodity traders
> > Date: Monday, August 31, 1998 9:42 AM
> >
> > Steve,
> >
> > I've been reading your postings on this mail list, and I find
> them to be
> > very interesting. I've got a few questions based on your
> recent comments.
> >
> > In this posting you cite "consensus numbers." Could you tell
> me what types
> > of traders are represented in this consensus? Also, do you get
> these
> > numbers from the net? If so, could you provide an address? Do
> you have any
> > consensus numbers for wheat?
> >
> > Larry Williams touts "commercial net buying" statistics as
> indicators of
> > futures market directions. Do you use this information, and
> what is your
> > opinion of it? Is "commercial net buying" available on the
> net?
> >
> > You have noted quite correctly that wheat is in a bear market.
> However, the
> > price is so low that I have been reluctant to go with the
> trend. I wonder
> > how much lower the wheat price can go, and is there enough
> downside
> > potential there to justify the risk. What is your view?
> >
> > Back on August 22 you stated that candlesticks are the most
> important
> > technical tool available. However, your comments in that
> message mentioned
> > that you also used a number of other technical indicators such
> as
> > stochastics, Bollinger bands, etc. Do you incorporate all or
> several of
> > these various indicators into a system, or do you examine them
> and draw
> > subjective conclusions?
> >
> > Well, that's enough questions to keep you busy for a while.
> Thanks for
> > considering them.
> >
> > Tom Strickland
> >
> >
> >
> > At 09:22 PM 8/30/98 -0700, you wrote:
> > >List,
> > >
> > >Corn and beans came in with the year's lowest consensus
> numbers:
> > >Corn=25.0 & Beans=22.2. In fact, I scanned back through 1997
> > >and 1996 also and there's nothing that comes close to these
> > >numbers on the downside. This type of bearish sentiment
> > >inevitably sparks a rally. Anybody notice the dollar
> "tanking"
> > >on Friday? The $ index gave back every stinking penny it
> gained
> > >since June 19th. Boy, I just hate to talk these
> funkymentals,
> > >but our grain just got a little easier to buy after Friday's
> > >action in the dollar. When bullish consensus falls to these
> > >levels, the interpretation is that there is no one left to
> sell.
> > > The stock market is stealing all the headlines, but the
> > >commodity index made new 21 year lows on Thursday and Friday.
>
> > >
> > >We sure live in exciting times...I think in the morning: I'll
> > >have a bowl of $4/box Wheaties, that have less than a pound
> of
> > >wheat in them, and then I'll talk to some local producers,
> who
> > >are getting paid less that 2 bucks, at the local elevator for
> a
> > >bushel (60 lbs.), and we can chat about how much Michael
> Jordan
> > >and Tiger Woods get for being on those boxes and then try to
> > >understand why Kellogg's reported disappointing third quarter
> > >earnings. I just peaked and the grains are up in Project
> > >A...maybe Cargills buying, maybe Tiger and Michael are going
> > >long this evening, maybe it's time to go to bed.
> > >
> > >Steve Karnish
> > >CCT
> > >
> > >
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Name: candles.gif
> candles.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> Encoding: base64
> Description: candles (GIF Image)
>
> Name: candles2.gif
> candles2.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> Encoding: base64
> Description: candles2 (GIF Image)
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