|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Dan
Writing a system to take advantage of the current account deficit might
be easier than getting all the past data for it. The Economist magazine
lists current account deficits for many countries in the last several
pages of each issue. I guess you could look at outflows of countries
versus inflows into the U.S. Also Barons each week has a listing in
their Market Laboratory section that lists Federal Reserve Data Bank
data and Federal Reserve Key Assets & Liabilities. I don't pretend to
understand all the data they give but one figure is Foreign Holdings of
US Debt which might be interesting to track. Let me know if you can make
anything of this.
John Manasco
HARELSDB@xxxxxxx wrote:
>
> The USA has been running a substantial trade deficit since the early 1980s.
> Trade deficits, or more precisely, current account deficits, must be balanced
> by capital account surpluses. That is, the dollars that foriegn companies
> earn in the US must be converted into the foriegn currency by banks and the
> banks must turn around and invest those dollars. The US stock market has been
> a good place to invest dollars over the last few years. Steve K. mentioned an
> absent minded professor that thought the baby boomer's 401k money was going to
> save the bull market. I am wondering about significance of the trade deficit
> with regard to to the stock market in general and the baby boomer's 401k money
> in particular.
>
> 1. Qualitatively or quantitatively speaking, how much of the bull market in
> U.S. equities from essentially 1982 to the present can be attributed to the
> U.S. current account deficit?
> 2. How does the U.S. current account deficit (capital account surplus)
> compare with the capital being saved by baby boomers? I have information that
> indicates that NET foreign purchases of U.S. stocks were 29 billion dollars in
> the first quarter of 1998. I don't have comparable information for purchases
> of U.S. stocks by domestic capital, but, I am guessing they are dwarfed by the
> foreign purchases.
> 3. How can I write a simple Metastock system to take advantage of the U.S.
> current account deficit as a global, macroeconomic phenomena?
>
> Thanks for your thoughts,
>
> Dan
> Pocatello, ID USA
|