PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
The USA has been running a substantial trade deficit since the early 1980s.
Trade deficits, or more precisely, current account deficits, must be balanced
by capital account surpluses. That is, the dollars that foriegn companies
earn in the US must be converted into the foriegn currency by banks and the
banks must turn around and invest those dollars. The US stock market has been
a good place to invest dollars over the last few years. Steve K. mentioned an
absent minded professor that thought the baby boomer's 401k money was going to
save the bull market. I am wondering about significance of the trade deficit
with regard to to the stock market in general and the baby boomer's 401k money
in particular.
1. Qualitatively or quantitatively speaking, how much of the bull market in
U.S. equities from essentially 1982 to the present can be attributed to the
U.S. current account deficit?
2. How does the U.S. current account deficit (capital account surplus)
compare with the capital being saved by baby boomers? I have information that
indicates that NET foreign purchases of U.S. stocks were 29 billion dollars in
the first quarter of 1998. I don't have comparable information for purchases
of U.S. stocks by domestic capital, but, I am guessing they are dwarfed by the
foreign purchases.
3. How can I write a simple Metastock system to take advantage of the U.S.
current account deficit as a global, macroeconomic phenomena?
Thanks for your thoughts,
Dan
Pocatello, ID USA
|