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John,
Good systems that track commodities should be able to cross over
and do well in equities. The futures game is "zero sum" (if
John Manasco "wins" a dollar...Steve Karnish "loses" a dollar).
Most folks believe that this makes it a tougher game. I thought
just for fun I'd post the exact same linear regression
oscillator systematic approach that I posted for lumber, but
this time for a stock (DELL, one of Jim's current favorites).
The approach is the same for lumber or DELL...but, the variables
change to adapt to the rhythm. The chart represents the first
six months of the year.
Steve Karnish
CCT
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> From: John Manasco <manasco@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re:System development
> Date: Saturday, August 22, 1998 11:56 AM
>
> Steve Karnish
>
> Thanks for the reply. You're right about my exit strategy.
This is
> something I'm working on to improve. I'd like to come up with
something
> that takes the decision out of my greedy little hands. I'm at
my worst
> when I try to outguess myself.
>
> I've never traded commodities, never even new what they were
until about
> five years ago. Someday I'll venture into that arena but for
now I'll
> stick to equities and options.
>
> Your forcast oscillator system is concise and to the point. I
like
> systems that have a minimum of indicators much more than
systems that
> use a myriad of indicators overlapping each other. Do you also
use other
> money management rules in case your system fails?
>
> Do you find some systems work better on futures that equities?
I'm
> comming to believe that there is no one system that will work
on
> everything but I need to tailor my systems for different
industry
> groups and different individual equities. This is hard to
accomplish
> without curve fitting but I'm finding that stocks do have
their
> individual personalities and respond better to some indicators
than
> others.
>
> Do you use candlesticks exclusively? Could you say something
about why
> you like them?
>
> Anyone else want to jump in please do so. I'd like to hear
from new
> investors and users of Metastock. How are you going about
deciding which
> indicators to study? Are there any trends developing which may
be
> helpful to more seasoned investors who also need help? When I
first
> started using Metastock I looked at the usual RSI, MACD,
Stochastics
> etc. Then everyone started exploring statistical based system.
What's
> new now? Any using fibonacci studies? How about cycle analysis
and fast
> fourier transforms? A Gann discussion group just started. I
hope they
> report back to the list on regular occasions on their
progress.
>
> Anyway it's a nice afternoon and I'm going outdoors to enjoy
it.
>
> Good trading
>
> John Manasco
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