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Hi Onno,
I have given more detail in other postings to John
and Steve, but if you have missed them or have
other questions, I would be glad to share with you
more info. What would you like to know?
Adam.
-----Original Message-----
From: Onno Goedknegt <goedkneg@xxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, August 22, 1998 9:04 PM
Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long), ...picking weakly
>Thanks Adam, for sharing you trading ideas with us!
>
>Are you able and willing... to share your trading system
>more in detail with us?
>
>Thanks,
>Onno
>
>At 13:20 22-8-98 -0500, you wrote:
>> Thanks John and Steve for your valuable insight!
>>My system is also mechanical and I mostly deal in the Futures market,
>>so I will post my system test using Lumber also. First I decided
>>to use a mechanical system to help remove the "emotions" from
>>my trade decisions. Also this system is new (I am also a little
green.....to
>>trading) so I am still testing this on different markets.
>> This system simply uses a crossing oscillator of PEAK and TROUGH to
>>trigger buy and sell signals, so far there seem to be little fitting
needed
>>to
>>apply to other markets, but my testing is not yet exhaustive. It could
>>easily be
>>modified for different trading styles such as "The Trend Is Your Friend"
>>and other rules.
>> PLEASE feel free to critique, suggest, comment or "warn of impending
>>danger".
>>I value the experience thats in this group!
>> Adam Hefner
>> VonHef@xxxxxxxxxx
>>
>>-----Original Message-----
>>From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>Date: Friday, August 21, 1998 4:49 PM
>>Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long), ...picking weakly
>>
>>
>>>John,
>>>
>>>Thanks for "laying it out" for us. Jim and Al continually
>>>contribute and have always been forthright with their
>>>approaches. The "equity selections", (for me), are more of an
>>>amusing hobby (I invest a small % of my speculative portfolio in
>>>these traditionally slow moving markets). I've explained my
>>>approach for stock selection (and yes, it's rather subjective).
>>>Although I was a stockbroker for over 15 years, my focus remains
>>>the futures market.
>>>
>>>I agree 100% that:
>>>
>>>a.) There should be more systems posted in this forum (people
>>>that have contacted me directly have found that I hold nothing
>>>as "proprietary"; I can have give people the "holy grail" and
>>>few would use it as intended)
>>>b.) Somehow there should be a way to "track" daily and weekly
>>>recommendations (Jim is especially good at "going public" with
>>>his weekly picks). Is this forum interested in the 5 -15 equity
>>>positions that I hold and the fact that I might "flip" half
>>>these positions tomorrow? If so, it would seem that some kind
>>>of subdivision of postings would be appropriate.
>>>
>>>Maybe the solution would be for interested parties to sign up
>>>with marketplayer.com and "go public" with their
>>>recommendations. The sign up is free and we can all monitor
>>>each others positions; then in a short period of time we can all
>>>see who's entitled to "bragging rights". Personally, I
>>>participate with the list to get and give help, not to "brag"
>>>about returns (please, disregard my crass, braggadocios 10% a
>>>month remark).
>>>
>>>Your approach to trading is a nice combination of sound
>>>technical "puzzle pieces". I did detect that your '"system"
>>>becomes somewhat subjective when you say: "Selling is the hard
>>>part. I tend to stick with some stocks long after they should
>>>have been sold. I'm not comfortable with my exit strategy. It's
>>>too discretionary."
>>>
>>>I've attached an approach to the lumber market that is totally
>>>objective. I trade it daily. I've also included the system
>>>that everyone can program in their own computer. I not
>>>interested and reading future posts that say: "he posted his
>>>best market"; or "that's for commodities, not securities"; or
>>>"this is a best fit situation"; etc. Save the negative comments
>>>until you "bare your own souls" or can find something inherently
>>>wrong with this mechanical approach.
>>>
>>>The "system" is a linear regression approach that buys and sells
>>>when the price strays from the 4 day linear regression. Yes,
>>>Virginia, it does use an opening price to calculate the linear
>>>regression (it's really not unAmerikan to do that). There is
>>>"zero" subjectivity involved in the mechanics...all one needs is
>>>the guts to put the trades on. This approach works with many
>>>different commodities, but with different variables for the
>>>length of linear regressions and entry and exit "trigger" points
>>>(I'm offering up one of the middle of the road performers).
>>>Remember: 1 point in lumber = $80 and I programmed in an $80
>>>commission to allow for slippage).
>>>
>>>So, I challenge the list (as John did to me): lay it on me! I'm
>>>willing to exchange (profitable) formulas ....are you?
>>>
>>>Specifically yours, but still generally commenting,
>>>
>>>Steve Karnish
>>>CCT
>>>
>>>
>>>----------
>>>> From: John Manasco <manasco@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long)
>>>> Date: Friday, August 21, 1998 8:34 AM
>>>>
>>>> Steve Karnish
>>>>
>>>> Thanks for your post on how to gain 10%/month. Now I'm going
>>>to pick on
>>>> you. I see many posts like this and read many articles in a
>>>similar
>>>> vein. Your general comments are very good but most people on
>>>this list
>>>> are looking for specifics. I think most people are in a
>>>constant
>>>> learning mode and benefit from seeing what systems and
>>>indicators work
>>>> for other people. Jim Greening lays his system out for
>>>everybody to
>>>> learn from and criticize. Al Taglavore put out a recent system
>>>for all
>>>> to see.
>>>>
>>>> O.K. I'll quit picking on you. You have had many good posts.
>>>I'd like to
>>>> see a thread started where people lay out their systems and
>>>indicators.
>>>> Lets discuss the merits of each in a positive way so that
>>>others and
>>>> ourselves may learn from them. Maybe we'll all end up trading
>>>more
>>>> profitably.
>>>>
>>>> So here's my system. I screen every day for stocks making new
>>>250 day
>>>> highs using the hhv function, C>hhv(C,250). I look for stocks
>>>whose
>>>> closing price is greater than 5 and less than 100. I screen
>>>for stocks
>>>> whose 50 day moving average of volume is greater than 50000
>>>shares.
>>>> Mov(V,50,S)>500. I look for stocks whose ADXR is greater than
>>>30,
>>>> ADXR(14)>30 and whose ADXR is rising, ADXR(14) >
>>>Ref(ADXR(14),-5). I
>>>> also screen for stocks being accumulated using the Chaikin A/D
>>>> Oscillator, CO() > 0 and CO()>Ref(CO(),-3). This give me a
>>>rising
>>>> accumulation line.
>>>>
>>>> I also look at the daily advance/decline line, the McClellan
>>>oscillator
>>>> and the summation index, the daily new highs/new lows, and the
>>>VIX. I
>>>> pay attention to the S&P500 index as well as the NYSE and NASD
>>>and the
>>>> T-Bond. When the A/D line and the McClellan oscillator and
>>>summation
>>>> index are all pointing down as well as the trend of the S&P
>>>and NYSE I
>>>> stand aside, even if my screens give me buy signals. I go with
>>>the
>>>> trend.
>>>>
>>>> Selling is the hard part. I tend to stick with some stocks
>>>long after
>>>> they should have been sold. I'm not comfortable with my exit
>>>strategy.
>>>> It's too discretionary. I take profits when I have a 10%
>>>retracement or
>>>> when a stock closes 8% below my purchase price. I don't always
>>>follow my
>>>> rules.
>>>>
>>>> I'm in the process of creating and testing channel breakout
>>>systems and
>>>> will switch if they prove themselves.
>>>>
>>>> So bring on the flames folks, what's your system like?
>>>>
>>>> John Manasco
>>
>>Attachment Converted: C:\DOWNLOAD\Lumber.gif
>>
>>Attachment Converted: C:\DOWNLOAD\notes.gif
>>
>
>
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