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Thanks Adam, for sharing you trading ideas with us!
Are you able and willing... to share your trading system
more in detail with us?
Thanks,
Onno
At 13:20 22-8-98 -0500, you wrote:
> Thanks John and Steve for your valuable insight!
>My system is also mechanical and I mostly deal in the Futures market,
>so I will post my system test using Lumber also. First I decided
>to use a mechanical system to help remove the "emotions" from
>my trade decisions. Also this system is new (I am also a little green.....to
>trading) so I am still testing this on different markets.
> This system simply uses a crossing oscillator of PEAK and TROUGH to
>trigger buy and sell signals, so far there seem to be little fitting needed
>to
>apply to other markets, but my testing is not yet exhaustive. It could
>easily be
>modified for different trading styles such as "The Trend Is Your Friend"
>and other rules.
> PLEASE feel free to critique, suggest, comment or "warn of impending
>danger".
>I value the experience thats in this group!
> Adam Hefner
> VonHef@xxxxxxxxxx
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Friday, August 21, 1998 4:49 PM
>Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long), ...picking weakly
>
>
>>John,
>>
>>Thanks for "laying it out" for us. Jim and Al continually
>>contribute and have always been forthright with their
>>approaches. The "equity selections", (for me), are more of an
>>amusing hobby (I invest a small % of my speculative portfolio in
>>these traditionally slow moving markets). I've explained my
>>approach for stock selection (and yes, it's rather subjective).
>>Although I was a stockbroker for over 15 years, my focus remains
>>the futures market.
>>
>>I agree 100% that:
>>
>>a.) There should be more systems posted in this forum (people
>>that have contacted me directly have found that I hold nothing
>>as "proprietary"; I can have give people the "holy grail" and
>>few would use it as intended)
>>b.) Somehow there should be a way to "track" daily and weekly
>>recommendations (Jim is especially good at "going public" with
>>his weekly picks). Is this forum interested in the 5 -15 equity
>>positions that I hold and the fact that I might "flip" half
>>these positions tomorrow? If so, it would seem that some kind
>>of subdivision of postings would be appropriate.
>>
>>Maybe the solution would be for interested parties to sign up
>>with marketplayer.com and "go public" with their
>>recommendations. The sign up is free and we can all monitor
>>each others positions; then in a short period of time we can all
>>see who's entitled to "bragging rights". Personally, I
>>participate with the list to get and give help, not to "brag"
>>about returns (please, disregard my crass, braggadocios 10% a
>>month remark).
>>
>>Your approach to trading is a nice combination of sound
>>technical "puzzle pieces". I did detect that your '"system"
>>becomes somewhat subjective when you say: "Selling is the hard
>>part. I tend to stick with some stocks long after they should
>>have been sold. I'm not comfortable with my exit strategy. It's
>>too discretionary."
>>
>>I've attached an approach to the lumber market that is totally
>>objective. I trade it daily. I've also included the system
>>that everyone can program in their own computer. I not
>>interested and reading future posts that say: "he posted his
>>best market"; or "that's for commodities, not securities"; or
>>"this is a best fit situation"; etc. Save the negative comments
>>until you "bare your own souls" or can find something inherently
>>wrong with this mechanical approach.
>>
>>The "system" is a linear regression approach that buys and sells
>>when the price strays from the 4 day linear regression. Yes,
>>Virginia, it does use an opening price to calculate the linear
>>regression (it's really not unAmerikan to do that). There is
>>"zero" subjectivity involved in the mechanics...all one needs is
>>the guts to put the trades on. This approach works with many
>>different commodities, but with different variables for the
>>length of linear regressions and entry and exit "trigger" points
>>(I'm offering up one of the middle of the road performers).
>>Remember: 1 point in lumber = $80 and I programmed in an $80
>>commission to allow for slippage).
>>
>>So, I challenge the list (as John did to me): lay it on me! I'm
>>willing to exchange (profitable) formulas ....are you?
>>
>>Specifically yours, but still generally commenting,
>>
>>Steve Karnish
>>CCT
>>
>>
>>----------
>>> From: John Manasco <manasco@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long)
>>> Date: Friday, August 21, 1998 8:34 AM
>>>
>>> Steve Karnish
>>>
>>> Thanks for your post on how to gain 10%/month. Now I'm going
>>to pick on
>>> you. I see many posts like this and read many articles in a
>>similar
>>> vein. Your general comments are very good but most people on
>>this list
>>> are looking for specifics. I think most people are in a
>>constant
>>> learning mode and benefit from seeing what systems and
>>indicators work
>>> for other people. Jim Greening lays his system out for
>>everybody to
>>> learn from and criticize. Al Taglavore put out a recent system
>>for all
>>> to see.
>>>
>>> O.K. I'll quit picking on you. You have had many good posts.
>>I'd like to
>>> see a thread started where people lay out their systems and
>>indicators.
>>> Lets discuss the merits of each in a positive way so that
>>others and
>>> ourselves may learn from them. Maybe we'll all end up trading
>>more
>>> profitably.
>>>
>>> So here's my system. I screen every day for stocks making new
>>250 day
>>> highs using the hhv function, C>hhv(C,250). I look for stocks
>>whose
>>> closing price is greater than 5 and less than 100. I screen
>>for stocks
>>> whose 50 day moving average of volume is greater than 50000
>>shares.
>>> Mov(V,50,S)>500. I look for stocks whose ADXR is greater than
>>30,
>>> ADXR(14)>30 and whose ADXR is rising, ADXR(14) >
>>Ref(ADXR(14),-5). I
>>> also screen for stocks being accumulated using the Chaikin A/D
>>> Oscillator, CO() > 0 and CO()>Ref(CO(),-3). This give me a
>>rising
>>> accumulation line.
>>>
>>> I also look at the daily advance/decline line, the McClellan
>>oscillator
>>> and the summation index, the daily new highs/new lows, and the
>>VIX. I
>>> pay attention to the S&P500 index as well as the NYSE and NASD
>>and the
>>> T-Bond. When the A/D line and the McClellan oscillator and
>>summation
>>> index are all pointing down as well as the trend of the S&P
>>and NYSE I
>>> stand aside, even if my screens give me buy signals. I go with
>>the
>>> trend.
>>>
>>> Selling is the hard part. I tend to stick with some stocks
>>long after
>>> they should have been sold. I'm not comfortable with my exit
>>strategy.
>>> It's too discretionary. I take profits when I have a 10%
>>retracement or
>>> when a stock closes 8% below my purchase price. I don't always
>>follow my
>>> rules.
>>>
>>> I'm in the process of creating and testing channel breakout
>>systems and
>>> will switch if they prove themselves.
>>>
>>> So bring on the flames folks, what's your system like?
>>>
>>> John Manasco
>
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