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Hi Steve,
I also tend to tweak, but my buy and sell
signals are generated when the formula
"price Oscillator" crosses the value of 0.
If you can improve this, PLEASE let me
know. I listed that formula on a reply to
John. What I have found so far, is the testing
results seems to be (somewhat)
consistent from one market to the next.
Let me know what you think.....good or bad.
Sorry about the HyperSnap disclaimer,
I had just downloaded and used it for the
first time, when I sent those .GIF's.
The formula that was covered up is
written:
BLong :=If(Cross(Fml( "Price Oscillator" ),0)
AND (Ref(Fml("Price Oscillator"),-2)<
Fml("Price Oscillator")),1,0);
Blong =1;
C-ya,
Adam Hefner
-----Original Message-----
From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, August 22, 1998 5:11 PM
Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long), ...picking weakly
>Adam,
>Now we're cooking! The next thing you know we'll have 5 lumber
>systems to compare. That annoying little HyperSnap disclaimer
>has blocked out a portion of the first line of your
>formula...would you mind supplying that line again? I hate to
>assume anything when it comes to trading. You can eliminate that
>box by signing up for the free trial. I like the shareware so
>much I actually think I might buy it. John makes a very good
>point: did you try optimizing the formula variables or the
>actual trigger points. There is a tendency to over "tweak"
>these things, but given the choice of tweaking or not tweaking,
>I definitely a tweaker.
>
>Steve Karnish
>CCT
>
>----------
>> From: Von Hef <VonHef@xxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long), ...picking weakly
>> Date: Saturday, August 22, 1998 11:20 AM
>>
>> Thanks John and Steve for your valuable insight!
>> My system is also mechanical and I mostly deal in the Futures
>market,
>> so I will post my system test using Lumber also. First I
>decided
>> to use a mechanical system to help remove the "emotions" from
>> my trade decisions. Also this system is new (I am also a
>little green.....to
>> trading) so I am still testing this on different markets.
>> This system simply uses a crossing oscillator of PEAK and
>TROUGH to
>> trigger buy and sell signals, so far there seem to be little
>fitting needed
>> to
>> apply to other markets, but my testing is not yet exhaustive.
>It could
>> easily be
>> modified for different trading styles such as "The Trend Is
>Your Friend"
>> and other rules.
>> PLEASE feel free to critique, suggest, comment or "warn of
>impending
>> danger".
>> I value the experience thats in this group!
>> Adam Hefner
>> VonHef@xxxxxxxxxx
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Friday, August 21, 1998 4:49 PM
>> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long), ...picking weakly
>>
>>
>> >John,
>> >
>> >Thanks for "laying it out" for us. Jim and Al continually
>> >contribute and have always been forthright with their
>> >approaches. The "equity selections", (for me), are more of
>an
>> >amusing hobby (I invest a small % of my speculative portfolio
>in
>> >these traditionally slow moving markets). I've explained my
>> >approach for stock selection (and yes, it's rather
>subjective).
>> >Although I was a stockbroker for over 15 years, my focus
>remains
>> >the futures market.
>> >
>> >I agree 100% that:
>> >
>> >a.) There should be more systems posted in this forum (people
>> >that have contacted me directly have found that I hold
>nothing
>> >as "proprietary"; I can have give people the "holy grail" and
>> >few would use it as intended)
>> >b.) Somehow there should be a way to "track" daily and weekly
>> >recommendations (Jim is especially good at "going public"
>with
>> >his weekly picks). Is this forum interested in the 5 -15
>equity
>> >positions that I hold and the fact that I might "flip" half
>> >these positions tomorrow? If so, it would seem that some
>kind
>> >of subdivision of postings would be appropriate.
>> >
>> >Maybe the solution would be for interested parties to sign up
>> >with marketplayer.com and "go public" with their
>> >recommendations. The sign up is free and we can all monitor
>> >each others positions; then in a short period of time we can
>all
>> >see who's entitled to "bragging rights". Personally, I
>> >participate with the list to get and give help, not to "brag"
>> >about returns (please, disregard my crass, braggadocios 10% a
>> >month remark).
>> >
>> >Your approach to trading is a nice combination of sound
>> >technical "puzzle pieces". I did detect that your '"system"
>> >becomes somewhat subjective when you say: "Selling is the
>hard
>> >part. I tend to stick with some stocks long after they should
>> >have been sold. I'm not comfortable with my exit strategy.
>It's
>> >too discretionary."
>> >
>> >I've attached an approach to the lumber market that is
>totally
>> >objective. I trade it daily. I've also included the system
>> >that everyone can program in their own computer. I not
>> >interested and reading future posts that say: "he posted his
>> >best market"; or "that's for commodities, not securities"; or
>> >"this is a best fit situation"; etc. Save the negative
>comments
>> >until you "bare your own souls" or can find something
>inherently
>> >wrong with this mechanical approach.
>> >
>> >The "system" is a linear regression approach that buys and
>sells
>> >when the price strays from the 4 day linear regression. Yes,
>> >Virginia, it does use an opening price to calculate the
>linear
>> >regression (it's really not unAmerikan to do that). There is
>> >"zero" subjectivity involved in the mechanics...all one needs
>is
>> >the guts to put the trades on. This approach works with many
>> >different commodities, but with different variables for the
>> >length of linear regressions and entry and exit "trigger"
>points
>> >(I'm offering up one of the middle of the road performers).
>> >Remember: 1 point in lumber = $80 and I programmed in an $80
>> >commission to allow for slippage).
>> >
>> >So, I challenge the list (as John did to me): lay it on me!
>I'm
>> >willing to exchange (profitable) formulas ....are you?
>> >
>> >Specifically yours, but still generally commenting,
>> >
>> >Steve Karnish
>> >CCT
>> >
>> >
>> >----------
>> >> From: John Manasco <manasco@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long)
>> >> Date: Friday, August 21, 1998 8:34 AM
>> >>
>> >> Steve Karnish
>> >>
>> >> Thanks for your post on how to gain 10%/month. Now I'm
>going
>> >to pick on
>> >> you. I see many posts like this and read many articles in a
>> >similar
>> >> vein. Your general comments are very good but most people
>on
>> >this list
>> >> are looking for specifics. I think most people are in a
>> >constant
>> >> learning mode and benefit from seeing what systems and
>> >indicators work
>> >> for other people. Jim Greening lays his system out for
>> >everybody to
>> >> learn from and criticize. Al Taglavore put out a recent
>system
>> >for all
>> >> to see.
>> >>
>> >> O.K. I'll quit picking on you. You have had many good
>posts.
>> >I'd like to
>> >> see a thread started where people lay out their systems and
>> >indicators.
>> >> Lets discuss the merits of each in a positive way so that
>> >others and
>> >> ourselves may learn from them. Maybe we'll all end up
>trading
>> >more
>> >> profitably.
>> >>
>> >> So here's my system. I screen every day for stocks making
>new
>> >250 day
>> >> highs using the hhv function, C>hhv(C,250). I look for
>stocks
>> >whose
>> >> closing price is greater than 5 and less than 100. I screen
>> >for stocks
>> >> whose 50 day moving average of volume is greater than 50000
>> >shares.
>> >> Mov(V,50,S)>500. I look for stocks whose ADXR is greater
>than
>> >30,
>> >> ADXR(14)>30 and whose ADXR is rising, ADXR(14) >
>> >Ref(ADXR(14),-5). I
>> >> also screen for stocks being accumulated using the Chaikin
>A/D
>> >> Oscillator, CO() > 0 and CO()>Ref(CO(),-3). This give me a
>> >rising
>> >> accumulation line.
>> >>
>> >> I also look at the daily advance/decline line, the
>McClellan
>> >oscillator
>> >> and the summation index, the daily new highs/new lows, and
>the
>> >VIX. I
>> >> pay attention to the S&P500 index as well as the NYSE and
>NASD
>> >and the
>> >> T-Bond. When the A/D line and the McClellan oscillator and
>> >summation
>> >> index are all pointing down as well as the trend of the S&P
>> >and NYSE I
>> >> stand aside, even if my screens give me buy signals. I go
>with
>> >the
>> >> trend.
>> >>
>> >> Selling is the hard part. I tend to stick with some stocks
>> >long after
>> >> they should have been sold. I'm not comfortable with my
>exit
>> >strategy.
>> >> It's too discretionary. I take profits when I have a 10%
>> >retracement or
>> >> when a stock closes 8% below my purchase price. I don't
>always
>> >follow my
>> >> rules.
>> >>
>> >> I'm in the process of creating and testing channel breakout
>> >systems and
>> >> will switch if they prove themselves.
>> >>
>> >> So bring on the flames folks, what's your system like?
>> >>
>> >> John Manasco
>>
>
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