|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
John,
Thanks for "laying it out" for us. Jim and Al continually
contribute and have always been forthright with their
approaches. The "equity selections", (for me), are more of an
amusing hobby (I invest a small % of my speculative portfolio in
these traditionally slow moving markets). I've explained my
approach for stock selection (and yes, it's rather subjective).
Although I was a stockbroker for over 15 years, my focus remains
the futures market.
I agree 100% that:
a.) There should be more systems posted in this forum (people
that have contacted me directly have found that I hold nothing
as "proprietary"; I can have give people the "holy grail" and
few would use it as intended)
b.) Somehow there should be a way to "track" daily and weekly
recommendations (Jim is especially good at "going public" with
his weekly picks). Is this forum interested in the 5 -15 equity
positions that I hold and the fact that I might "flip" half
these positions tomorrow? If so, it would seem that some kind
of subdivision of postings would be appropriate.
Maybe the solution would be for interested parties to sign up
with marketplayer.com and "go public" with their
recommendations. The sign up is free and we can all monitor
each others positions; then in a short period of time we can all
see who's entitled to "bragging rights". Personally, I
participate with the list to get and give help, not to "brag"
about returns (please, disregard my crass, braggadocios 10% a
month remark).
Your approach to trading is a nice combination of sound
technical "puzzle pieces". I did detect that your '"system"
becomes somewhat subjective when you say: "Selling is the hard
part. I tend to stick with some stocks long after they should
have been sold. I'm not comfortable with my exit strategy. It's
too discretionary."
I've attached an approach to the lumber market that is totally
objective. I trade it daily. I've also included the system
that everyone can program in their own computer. I not
interested and reading future posts that say: "he posted his
best market"; or "that's for commodities, not securities"; or
"this is a best fit situation"; etc. Save the negative comments
until you "bare your own souls" or can find something inherently
wrong with this mechanical approach.
The "system" is a linear regression approach that buys and sells
when the price strays from the 4 day linear regression. Yes,
Virginia, it does use an opening price to calculate the linear
regression (it's really not unAmerikan to do that). There is
"zero" subjectivity involved in the mechanics...all one needs is
the guts to put the trades on. This approach works with many
different commodities, but with different variables for the
length of linear regressions and entry and exit "trigger" points
(I'm offering up one of the middle of the road performers).
Remember: 1 point in lumber = $80 and I programmed in an $80
commission to allow for slippage).
So, I challenge the list (as John did to me): lay it on me! I'm
willing to exchange (profitable) formulas ....are you?
Specifically yours, but still generally commenting,
Steve Karnish
CCT
----------
> From: John Manasco <manasco@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long)
> Date: Friday, August 21, 1998 8:34 AM
>
> Steve Karnish
>
> Thanks for your post on how to gain 10%/month. Now I'm going
to pick on
> you. I see many posts like this and read many articles in a
similar
> vein. Your general comments are very good but most people on
this list
> are looking for specifics. I think most people are in a
constant
> learning mode and benefit from seeing what systems and
indicators work
> for other people. Jim Greening lays his system out for
everybody to
> learn from and criticize. Al Taglavore put out a recent system
for all
> to see.
>
> O.K. I'll quit picking on you. You have had many good posts.
I'd like to
> see a thread started where people lay out their systems and
indicators.
> Lets discuss the merits of each in a positive way so that
others and
> ourselves may learn from them. Maybe we'll all end up trading
more
> profitably.
>
> So here's my system. I screen every day for stocks making new
250 day
> highs using the hhv function, C>hhv(C,250). I look for stocks
whose
> closing price is greater than 5 and less than 100. I screen
for stocks
> whose 50 day moving average of volume is greater than 50000
shares.
> Mov(V,50,S)>500. I look for stocks whose ADXR is greater than
30,
> ADXR(14)>30 and whose ADXR is rising, ADXR(14) >
Ref(ADXR(14),-5). I
> also screen for stocks being accumulated using the Chaikin A/D
> Oscillator, CO() > 0 and CO()>Ref(CO(),-3). This give me a
rising
> accumulation line.
>
> I also look at the daily advance/decline line, the McClellan
oscillator
> and the summation index, the daily new highs/new lows, and the
VIX. I
> pay attention to the S&P500 index as well as the NYSE and NASD
and the
> T-Bond. When the A/D line and the McClellan oscillator and
summation
> index are all pointing down as well as the trend of the S&P
and NYSE I
> stand aside, even if my screens give me buy signals. I go with
the
> trend.
>
> Selling is the hard part. I tend to stick with some stocks
long after
> they should have been sold. I'm not comfortable with my exit
strategy.
> It's too discretionary. I take profits when I have a 10%
retracement or
> when a stock closes 8% below my purchase price. I don't always
follow my
> rules.
>
> I'm in the process of creating and testing channel breakout
systems and
> will switch if they prove themselves.
>
> So bring on the flames folks, what's your system like?
>
> John Manasco
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\821lumber.gif"
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\lumsysnotes.gif"
|