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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Hi Steve,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>You will get shot mentioning Astro,sunspots and
weather on this site.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>I find your corn cycles
interesting.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>I work on the CRB index and we are at double
bottom levels with the 1992 low, so this level is critical. I have strong
probable turning points on the monthly chart for September and October with
October being 30 months from the last high ( I will not mention the Big Astro
influences for October here). August is also 72 months from low.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Observations based on pattern still show extreme
weakness and the down trendline was broken last week (maybe a capitulation
low???). We need to see a divergent low before we can think of any change around
the corner.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Any other comments from anyone?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Dick.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR>From: Steve Karnish
<kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx><BR>To: <A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>Date:
Saturday, 15 August 1998 3:06<BR>Subject: Re: Market
discussion<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>>Dick,<BR>><BR>>Since I started
something and you offered an opinion on<BR>>grains...I'd like to make a case
for a bottom in corn:<BR>><BR>>1. "Funky-mentals":
big crop, crummy exports, limited storage,<BR>>large carry over, and my
mother-in-law saying it's going to<BR>>$1.65.<BR>>Analysis: When
your inlaws say go short...bet the farm.<BR>><BR>>2.
"Cycles": We don't ever discuss cycles in this forum.
(If<BR>>people want some interesting reading they can contact
the<BR>>Institute for Cyclical Research in Pittsburgh, PA.) Corn has
a<BR>>dominate 63 month cycle and a secondary 50 month cycle.
The<BR>>last time these two cycles coincided was in 1977. Check out
the<BR>>charts and note the 3+ year rally that corn put together
after<BR>>the cycle low. The next time these two cycles "come
together"<BR>>is September 1998. <BR>>Analysis:
Earthquakes and high tides are more abundant when the<BR>>planets line up in
conjunction (just a bunch of big old cycles).<BR>> Always be aware of cycles
and take notice when amplitudes pile<BR>>up on one
another.<BR>><BR>>2a. "Sunspots": Boy, I'm going to
catch some flack for<BR>>bringing in the weather into this discussion.
But......., In<BR>>1976, I was conducting hedging seminars with Michigan
State<BR>>University and one of the professors (Black) had just
completed<BR>>a correlation of sunspots to corn price/production
report. The<BR>>given is that every 22 years there is a peak in
sunspot<BR>>activity. The last two times this occurred was 1977 and
1955. <BR>>I'm old enough to have lived through and remember both summers.
<BR>>1955 is still the hottest summer I recall during my 30 years
in<BR>>Michigan and in 1977, I was living in Denver and they had
over<BR>>50 days of 90+ degrees (unheard of for the area). 1999
is<BR>>another peak year.<BR>>Analysis: Mama told me not to look
into the sun, but I said:<BR>>Mama, that's where the fun is. Rain makes
grain, drought makes<BR>>money (if you're long).<BR>><BR>>3.
"The techs": Near term: MFI hooking down and
seeking<BR>>another bottom; Chande MO setting up for additional
divergence;<BR>>RSI seeking support; Fast Sto headed down for another bottom;
%<BR>>of R on support; MACD(dema) is low, but posted a "nasty"
down<BR>>hook Long term: When the "near term"
indicators turn on<BR>>support, (one or two weeks) this could be one of those
"buys of<BR>>the millenium". <BR>>Analysis: When different
indicators, (founded in different<BR>>math), make a coincidental bottoms
...you have a powerful buy<BR>>signal. <BR>><BR>>Opportunities to
participate in absolute tops and absolute<BR>>bottoms only roll in every
couple of years. This just happens<BR>>to be a time in history when
there are multiple choices among<BR>>basic raw materials that are making
'bargain basement" lows. <BR>>Crude oil, certain currencies, the grains,
and the metals will<BR>>all be higher when inflation visits us again
(remember<BR>>inflation?). Take advantage of these bottoms to position
long<BR>>positions. <BR>><BR>>Steve
Karnish<BR>>CCT<BR>><BR></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sat Aug 15 20:03:39 1998
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From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Redcayj
Date: Sat, 15 Aug 1998 17:43:35 -0700
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----------
> From: redcayj <redcayj@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Redcayj
> Date: Saturday, August 15, 1998 4:02 PM
>
>
>
> Al Taglavore wrote:
>
> > Would the person "Redcayj" please re-send the chart. It is
very large and
> > I can only read thru the 1990 fourth quarter.
Intestestingly, I have never
> > looked at quarterly charts. Also, please expand on your
brief message.
> >
> > Thank you,
> >
> > Al Taglavore
>
> Hi Al:
>
> Sorry about the .Gif picture, am resending with this message.
Supposedly Gann
> relied on the Quarterly chart for some of his long term
analysis. Jerry Favor,
> a
> gann newsletter writter, also mentioned it quite frequently.
>
> Actually a monthly or yearly chart is just as useful. I just
felt that with an
> uptrend so long in duration, that before we panic we should
give the long term
> view a chance to confirm our "new" bear trend.
>
> Jeff Redcay
>
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