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Steve
You're right about that long term definition. Short term is when we get out
on the close, medium term is when we exit the next morning and long term is
EOD the next day, or maybe later :).
I once took an unbelievable bath in Wheat in the 1950s, I think. Maybe the
early 60s. Wheat was right at its support level (government support price),
so I rationalized that here was a price the government would pay for the
stuff, why would it drop below that number. Looked like limited risk to me
:) . Bought 50,000 bushels and watched it drop like a stone right through
the support price. Costly lesson for either a teenager or someone in his
early 20s.
That reminds me of the 8 limit days down against me in Bellies. That one
taught me never to trade thin markets :) .
Why do these lessons have to be so expensive???
Regards
Guy
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
Sent: Friday, August 14, 1998 6:07 PM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Market discussion
Guy,
I agree with your European negative fundamentals. Every day we
gather more evidence. Today, the markets seemed to be
anticipating some very negative news over the weekend. Buy the
rumor (bonds and dollars) and sell the rumor (currencies and
equities). Those individuals holding short positions in the
D-Mark and DJU/SPU could benefit during the next 48 hours.
International Monetary Socialism is failing.
I still like corn and wheat for the long term (although my
technical approach alternates from long to short and back
again...I've traded wheat 45 times this year). I usually get in
trouble when I analyze things long term. As a commodity trader,
I've always told people that long term is overnight.
Steve Karnish
CCT
----------
> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: Market discussion
> Date: Friday, August 14, 1998 3:21 PM
>
> Steve
>
> I guess I'm not the only one who remembers 1955 in Michigan.
The year I
> graduated High School and started at the Univ. of Michigan.
>
> And while I agree with a lot of your comments, there are a
couple of
> negative fundamentals that might enter the equation. With the
Asian flu,
> Russia taking a dump, the potential for this to push Europe
into a
> recession, your one missing element is demand. Granted people
have to eat,
> but do they have the money to buy corn to feed to animals and
then eat meat
> or do they stay with basic food stuffs in bad times?
>
> Guy
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> Sent: Friday, August 14, 1998 9:29 AM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Market discussion
>
> Dick,
>
> Since I started something and you offered an opinion on
> grains...I'd like to make a case for a bottom in corn:
>
> 1. "Funky-mentals": big crop, crummy exports, limited
storage,
> large carry over, and my mother-in-law saying it's going to
> $1.65.
> Analysis: When your inlaws say go short...bet the farm.
>
> 2. "Cycles": We don't ever discuss cycles in this forum.
(If
> people want some interesting reading they can contact the
> Institute for Cyclical Research in Pittsburgh, PA.) Corn has
a
> dominate 63 month cycle and a secondary 50 month cycle. The
> last time these two cycles coincided was in 1977. Check out
the
> charts and note the 3+ year rally that corn put together after
> the cycle low. The next time these two cycles "come together"
> is September 1998.
> Analysis: Earthquakes and high tides are more abundant when
the
> planets line up in conjunction (just a bunch of big old
cycles).
> Always be aware of cycles and take notice when amplitudes
pile
> up on one another.
>
> 2a. "Sunspots": Boy, I'm going to catch some flack for
> bringing in the weather into this discussion. But......., In
> 1976, I was conducting hedging seminars with Michigan State
> University and one of the professors (Black) had just
completed
> a correlation of sunspots to corn price/production report.
The
> given is that every 22 years there is a peak in sunspot
> activity. The last two times this occurred was 1977 and 1955.
> I'm old enough to have lived through and remember both
summers.
> 1955 is still the hottest summer I recall during my 30 years
in
> Michigan and in 1977, I was living in Denver and they had over
> 50 days of 90+ degrees (unheard of for the area). 1999 is
> another peak year.
> Analysis: Mama told me not to look into the sun, but I said:
> Mama, that's where the fun is. Rain makes grain, drought
makes
> money (if you're long).
>
> 3. "The techs": Near term: MFI hooking down and seeking
> another bottom; Chande MO setting up for additional
divergence;
> RSI seeking support; Fast Sto headed down for another bottom;
%
> of R on support; MACD(dema) is low, but posted a "nasty" down
> hook Long term: When the "near term" indicators turn on
> support, (one or two weeks) this could be one of those "buys
of
> the millenium".
> Analysis: When different indicators, (founded in different
> math), make a coincidental bottoms ...you have a powerful buy
> signal.
>
> Opportunities to participate in absolute tops and absolute
> bottoms only roll in every couple of years. This just happens
> to be a time in history when there are multiple choices among
> basic raw materials that are making 'bargain basement" lows.
> Crude oil, certain currencies, the grains, and the metals will
> all be higher when inflation visits us again (remember
> inflation?). Take advantage of these bottoms to position long
> positions.
>
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
> ----------
> > From: Dick Simmons <simmons@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: Market discussion
> > Date: Sunday, August 09, 1998 6:39 PM
> >
> > Hi all,
> > There should be more posts like this. I am sure that we
would
> get more out
> > of this subject than some of the other discussions - lets
keep
> this one
> > going.
> > Grains I feel have some way to go both in price and time
> before bottoming
> > out.
> > The Indexes are doing a counter trend move at the moment
> before falling a
> > lot further - you can only be short in this market.
> > Regards,
> > Dick.
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Al Taglavore <altag@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Saturday, 8 August 1998 3:48
> > Subject: Re: WAG THE DOG
> >
> >
> > >
> > >
> > >----------
> > >> From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >> To: MetaStock-List <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >> Subject: WAG THE DOG
> > >> Date: Friday, August 07, 1998 10:23 AM
> > >>
> > >> Steve wrote ".......snip-snip
> > >
> > >> Now, is anyone willing to discuss a possible bottom in
> grains, a
> > >> possible top in the indices, the great volatility in
cotton
> and
> > >> cocoa??
> > >>
> > >> Steve Karnish
> > >> CCT
> > >No, I do not have any comments as to the bottom in grains,
> but I would sure
> > >like to read some comments about the DMark and upcoming
Euro
> and the 30Y
> > >TBond. Like, if the market is coming down as it has, where
> is the money
> > >going? Bonds are not rising, gold is stagnant, the CRB is
> falling, so
> > >where, in anyone's opinion is the money going? Sure would
be
> great to see
> > >some posts concerning markets, trading, and making money.
> > >
> > >Al Taglavore
> > >
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