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Guy,
When I first started trading, I developed a little moving
average oscillator and applied it to the cocoa market. I
watched as it posted 10 or 11 profitable trades in a row and
jumped in thinking I'd soon make "a pile" and retire. It
chugged along for about a week or so executing it's stop and
reverse signals. About two weeks had passed and my $3,000
investment had grown to over $18,000. I thought I was God's
gift to technical analysis. I was in a long position when the
market went limit against me and continued posting limit moves
for days afterwards. I escaped with a small loss and a big
lesson on "thin markets" and "large egos".
As Al alluded to in an earlier post: "we need to learn that we
will never know" (I think that's what he said). When I stopped
thinking I had all the answers (during young and dumb "daze")
and realized I hardly knew anything (and still don't), things
got a lot easier. I'm still trying to figure out how the grains
are going to go up with world currencies going in the toilet.
Being an ex Motor City boy, I hope you noticed that giant move
off the bottom that the Canadian dollar posted last week. I
hear that Windsor casinos have been giving $150 Canadian in
exchange to $100 US for months. Looks like the market caught up
with their promotional idea since last April.
Steve Karnish
CCT
----------
> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: Market discussion
> Date: Saturday, August 15, 1998 5:00 PM
>
> Steve
>
> You're right about that long term definition. Short term is
when we get out
> on the close, medium term is when we exit the next morning and
long term is
> EOD the next day, or maybe later :).
>
> I once took an unbelievable bath in Wheat in the 1950s, I
think. Maybe the
> early 60s. Wheat was right at its support level (government
support price),
> so I rationalized that here was a price the government would
pay for the
> stuff, why would it drop below that number. Looked like
limited risk to me
> :) . Bought 50,000 bushels and watched it drop like a stone
right through
> the support price. Costly lesson for either a teenager or
someone in his
> early 20s.
>
> That reminds me of the 8 limit days down against me in
Bellies. That one
> taught me never to trade thin markets :) .
>
> Why do these lessons have to be so expensive???
>
> Regards
>
> Guy
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> Sent: Friday, August 14, 1998 6:07 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Market discussion
>
> Guy,
>
> I agree with your European negative fundamentals. Every day
we
> gather more evidence. Today, the markets seemed to be
> anticipating some very negative news over the weekend. Buy
the
> rumor (bonds and dollars) and sell the rumor (currencies and
> equities). Those individuals holding short positions in the
> D-Mark and DJU/SPU could benefit during the next 48 hours.
> International Monetary Socialism is failing.
>
> I still like corn and wheat for the long term (although my
> technical approach alternates from long to short and back
> again...I've traded wheat 45 times this year). I usually get
in
> trouble when I analyze things long term. As a commodity
trader,
> I've always told people that long term is overnight.
>
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
> ----------
> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: Market discussion
> > Date: Friday, August 14, 1998 3:21 PM
> >
> > Steve
> >
> > I guess I'm not the only one who remembers 1955 in Michigan.
> The year I
> > graduated High School and started at the Univ. of Michigan.
> >
> > And while I agree with a lot of your comments, there are a
> couple of
> > negative fundamentals that might enter the equation. With
the
> Asian flu,
> > Russia taking a dump, the potential for this to push Europe
> into a
> > recession, your one missing element is demand. Granted
people
> have to eat,
> > but do they have the money to buy corn to feed to animals
and
> then eat meat
> > or do they stay with basic food stuffs in bad times?
> >
> > Guy
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> > Sent: Friday, August 14, 1998 9:29 AM
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: Market discussion
> >
> > Dick,
> >
> > Since I started something and you offered an opinion on
> > grains...I'd like to make a case for a bottom in corn:
> >
> > 1. "Funky-mentals": big crop, crummy exports, limited
> storage,
> > large carry over, and my mother-in-law saying it's going to
> > $1.65.
> > Analysis: When your inlaws say go short...bet the farm.
> >
> > 2. "Cycles": We don't ever discuss cycles in this forum.
> (If
> > people want some interesting reading they can contact the
> > Institute for Cyclical Research in Pittsburgh, PA.) Corn
has
> a
> > dominate 63 month cycle and a secondary 50 month cycle. The
> > last time these two cycles coincided was in 1977. Check out
> the
> > charts and note the 3+ year rally that corn put together
after
> > the cycle low. The next time these two cycles "come
together"
> > is September 1998.
> > Analysis: Earthquakes and high tides are more abundant when
> the
> > planets line up in conjunction (just a bunch of big old
> cycles).
> > Always be aware of cycles and take notice when amplitudes
> pile
> > up on one another.
> >
> > 2a. "Sunspots": Boy, I'm going to catch some flack for
> > bringing in the weather into this discussion. But.......,
In
> > 1976, I was conducting hedging seminars with Michigan State
> > University and one of the professors (Black) had just
> completed
> > a correlation of sunspots to corn price/production report.
> The
> > given is that every 22 years there is a peak in sunspot
> > activity. The last two times this occurred was 1977 and
1955.
> > I'm old enough to have lived through and remember both
> summers.
> > 1955 is still the hottest summer I recall during my 30 years
> in
> > Michigan and in 1977, I was living in Denver and they had
over
> > 50 days of 90+ degrees (unheard of for the area). 1999 is
> > another peak year.
> > Analysis: Mama told me not to look into the sun, but I
said:
> > Mama, that's where the fun is. Rain makes grain, drought
> makes
> > money (if you're long).
> >
> > 3. "The techs": Near term: MFI hooking down and seeking
> > another bottom; Chande MO setting up for additional
> divergence;
> > RSI seeking support; Fast Sto headed down for another
bottom;
> %
> > of R on support; MACD(dema) is low, but posted a "nasty"
down
> > hook Long term: When the "near term" indicators turn on
> > support, (one or two weeks) this could be one of those "buys
> of
> > the millenium".
> > Analysis: When different indicators, (founded in different
> > math), make a coincidental bottoms ...you have a powerful
buy
> > signal.
> >
> > Opportunities to participate in absolute tops and absolute
> > bottoms only roll in every couple of years. This just
happens
> > to be a time in history when there are multiple choices
among
> > basic raw materials that are making 'bargain basement" lows.
> > Crude oil, certain currencies, the grains, and the metals
will
> > all be higher when inflation visits us again (remember
> > inflation?). Take advantage of these bottoms to position
long
> > positions.
> >
> > Steve Karnish
> > CCT
> >
> > ----------
> > > From: Dick Simmons <simmons@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: Market discussion
> > > Date: Sunday, August 09, 1998 6:39 PM
> > >
> > > Hi all,
> > > There should be more posts like this. I am sure that we
> would
> > get more out
> > > of this subject than some of the other discussions - lets
> keep
> > this one
> > > going.
> > > Grains I feel have some way to go both in price and time
> > before bottoming
> > > out.
> > > The Indexes are doing a counter trend move at the moment
> > before falling a
> > > lot further - you can only be short in this market.
> > > Regards,
> > > Dick.
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Al Taglavore <altag@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Date: Saturday, 8 August 1998 3:48
> > > Subject: Re: WAG THE DOG
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >----------
> > > >> From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >> To: MetaStock-List <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >> Subject: WAG THE DOG
> > > >> Date: Friday, August 07, 1998 10:23 AM
> > > >>
> > > >> Steve wrote ".......snip-snip
> > > >
> > > >> Now, is anyone willing to discuss a possible bottom in
> > grains, a
> > > >> possible top in the indices, the great volatility in
> cotton
> > and
> > > >> cocoa??
> > > >>
> > > >> Steve Karnish
> > > >> CCT
> > > >No, I do not have any comments as to the bottom in
grains,
> > but I would sure
> > > >like to read some comments about the DMark and upcoming
> Euro
> > and the 30Y
> > > >TBond. Like, if the market is coming down as it has,
where
> > is the money
> > > >going? Bonds are not rising, gold is stagnant, the CRB
is
> > falling, so
> > > >where, in anyone's opinion is the money going? Sure
would
> be
> > great to see
> > > >some posts concerning markets, trading, and making money.
> > > >
> > > >Al Taglavore
> > > >
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