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Al,
I trade intraday, so please take my comments lightly
(light-hearted). If you looking at a monthly chart, why not a
yearly? We really have a dandy bull market going this century.
I email an opening comment to a few people, every morning. This
practice keeps me honest (with myself). I think we all have a
ego-twisting habit of looking at yesterday's price movement and
rationalizing by saying: "I thought that was going to happen".
Anyway, here's a mix of Fridays email and thoughts forming for
Monday (for SPU):
"Friday's close (102.30), moved below the critical daily area of
1067.75 yet did not violate 1060.00. A break of 1060.00 should
trigger an accelerated selloff to earlier targeted levels of
1043.5 - 1039.20. Bear are in control."
I know the above is a secular and myopic view of the big
picture, but if you are going to use that great technical tool:
"stairsteps", why not apply some slightly more reliable
technical indicators on that monthly chart. Viewing the S&P
monthly with stochastics, RSIs, and other momentum oscillators,
I believe you are going to see the same kind of divergence that
the daily charts "painted" prior to 7/20. The DJIA is even a
"sicker puppy" than the "500". If the indices close on monthly
lows on the 31st, they put in place "doji gravestones". I
suggest if that happens, you should dig on hole for your TV and
another for the averages.
Keep on posting Al, your comments are always a breath of fresh
air. Your "suits" comment, a few days ago, is still the high
water mark for this forum.
Steve Karnish
CCT
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> From: Al Taglavore <altag@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: MetaStock List Group <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Death of the Bull?
> Date: Saturday, August 15, 1998 1:24 PM
>
> In my attempts to develop a methodology for trading the S&P
and as a result
> of looking at different time frames, I offer these
observations:
>
> If anyone will look at the S&P on a monthly MS chart from Jan
of 1994, one
> will see a fabulous chart that almost looks like a stairstep.
>
> Since the end of Jan 98 to July 98 there has only been one
month that the
> S&P traded below the previous months low, and that was only by
2.31 points
>
> This is the first month that we have traded significantly
below the
> previous month.
>
> If a trendline is drawn from the Oct 97 low, we have YET to
touch that
> line. It is a sign of strength for a trendline to be touched
and therefore
> tested, and we have yet to touch the line.
>
> To all that study channels, I ask, are we not now approaching
the bottom of
> a short term {based on monthly data} channel?
>
> Unless 896.75 on a closing basis is violated, are we not in a
bull market
> still?
>
> If we do not listen to T V and read newspapers, but trade off
of charts,
> could we find a more profitable chart pattern?
>
> To all chartist, please give an evaluation.
>
> Al Taglavore
>
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