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Chris,
Your 50 point zig zag study is flawed if i am not mistaken. You need
to redo your calculations on a % basis. Of course the swings will be
bigger now than in 1982...the index has increased five fold. I would
be interested to see if your conlcusion still remains the same..I
would hazard a guess that it will not.
Adrian Pitt
>
>This is, I think, reflected in equities too. At least from where I am
>trading (in outback Australia), there has been a marked increase in
>volatility in the market recently - no doubt because of a sense that the
>bull market is ending. But in fact the volatility change goes back to about
>1986.
>
>A while ago I did a study of the Australian All Ordinaries trends. Using
>the ZigZag indicator to pick out relatively short term trends, and then
>differentiating the result to show the rate of price change I found that
>from about 1986 onwards there has been increasing 'noise' in the market. I
>am attaching a chart of this which is quite interesting.
>
>Does this mean that the older TA indicators and trading methods have become
>less useful?
>
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** FOR SUPERIOR ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS ON THE ALL ORDINARIES INDEX **
5
/ http://www.macquarie.com.au/menu/mnu32.htm \
/ \ b
3 / Adrian Pitt Phone(work) (612) 9237-3877 \ /\
/\ / GPO Box 3252, Fax (612) 9237-6882 \/ \
1 / \/ Sydney, N.S.W., email apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx a \
/\ / 4 1043, Australia. c
/ \/
/ 2 "Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health. If
you are not worried, you are not risking enough."
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