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D. M.
You're more on top of it than I am. I really just noticed it in May. Now,
we hadn't started trading again until this last February as the docs wanted
me to take the year off following my heart attack and subsequent open heart
surgery. I'm now going to go back to February, to see if I can see a
difference. Following that, I'll go back and check to October to try to
identify any impact there,
I agree that the Asian 'problems' are the probable cause, but I worry about
whether this is temporary or the leading edge of a more fundamental change
in the market. Deflation, devaluation of currencies, other basic changes in
the marketplace. FWIW, we're having what I consider hyperinflation in real
estate where I live. People are paying just about anything to buy a house
here. Builder sold a spec home across the street from me (3,200 sq. ft. -
low quality construction) for $1.2mm. He's asking $1.4mm for the one next
to it and just bought the lot next to that one (a tear down) for $550,000
and thought he stole it . Give me a break. Even with the property boom in
1989-90, prices never got this high.
Regards
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of D. Mohr
Sent: Friday, June 19, 1998 9:08 PM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Times are a changing? Bonds&Equities
Guy,
The decoupling of T bonds and stocks started affecting my system last
October, when stocks tanked and the 30 year T bond hiccupped for a
couple of weeks, then continued up. In hind sight, I attribute the
strong bond to buying from Asia.
The closest that I can come to approximating the signals that I used to
get with bonds is to use the Russell 3000. My time frame is 3 - 6
months. Surely the decoupling is just temporary, isn't it???? I will
have to see my bond system work for 2 more correct calls before I will
rely on it again.
D. M.
----------
Has anybody else noticed a decoupling of the T Bonds and equities? Our
trading system has used the Bonds to confirm our S&Ps trades for the
last
twelve years with great success. In the last month or two, I've
noticed
that Bonds seemed to have decoupled from the equities market and that
we are
better off trading our basic S&P system without Bonds confirming.
Is this a temporary decoupling of Bonds and equities caused by the
Asian
economic crisis or is it more permanent in nature?
Is this the beginning of the end of the bull move???
<snip>
Any ideas or thoughts would be appreciated.
Regards
Guy
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