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[amibroker] Re: Expectancy - and related--specifically K-rato



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> I think Pardo's WFE is questionable. How can you compare IS CAR with OOS CAR 
> if the concatenated IS and OOS periods are completely different?

Why not use the same periods for both?  AMI doesn't do this for you automatically, but you can optimize over the period covered by your OOS walk forward data to see how the system would perform if it was in sample and compare that to the OOS walk forward results.

What we are looking for is to see how vulnerable to over fitting your system is.

For example, it is not hard to double the IS performance of a system by adding just one more tweakable parameter.  But doing so will likely hurt out of sample results, and greatly hurt WFE.  

The problem is that the designer will reject the change unless the OOS results also improve and keep searching until it does.  So the OOS data is no longer really OOS.  

The WFE can warn the designer that he has too many degrees of freedom.






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