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> To be trusteful in politics and financial people we should be mad
>or a
> philosophe, no ?
Being a mad philosopher is not such a bad thing mes ami!.
I like to study the market, to learn it's habits..... like a hunter.
Interposing value judgements will only get in the way of that
understanding e.g.
- if we believe up is good and down is bad we won't trade the short
side so well (reference the mad philosopher, Dynamite Doll, who turns
her charts upside down).
- if we believe investing is good and trading is bad then we won't
find it easy to sell when the long term bull run ends etc.
If we believe in anything we are only setting ourselves up for
disappointment.... the only challenge left thereafter is to remain
optimistic and charitable, even though there is no good reason.....
for that task one has to be totally mad (refer Carlos Castaneda
and "controlled folly").
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, reinsley <reinsley@xxx> wrote:
>
>
> Take my words for it, Brian, you gave all the elements to believe
in the
> system...
>
> To be trusteful in politics and financial people we should be mad
or a
> philosophe, no ?
>
> Best regards
>
>
>
> brian_z111 a écrit :
> >
> > LEVERAGING BANKRUPTCY!
> >
> > A few more articles on CreditDefaultSwaps (CDS) ... old news now
to
> > insiders and those in the industry.
> >
> > Opinions vary on how much risk is still out there, what it totals
up
> > to and who, exactly, is holding the parcel.
> >
> > How much of the perceived risk is fear and how much is real the
> > markets are yet to show us... last weeks selldown in the US majors
> > that hold most of the CDS exposure may be the discounted value...
the
> > problem is that they can't actually be valued at anytime ...
further
> > declines in the market, and economic prospects, could trigger more
> > defaults.
> >
> > Curious how JPM hasn't been hammered as much as C and BAC ...
> > haven't figure that one out yet.
> >
> > Anyway... a couple of pessimistic reviews, an optimistic
denouncement
> > and a factual report from the US regulator, amongst other things.
> >
> > a) Credit Default Swaps: The Next Crisis?
> > Times.
> > Monday, Mar. 17, 2008
> >
> > http://www.time. com/time/ business/ article/0, 8599,1723152,
00.html
> > <http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1723152,00.html>
> >
> > b) The Next Banking Bomb?
> > CBS News Investigates: Credit Derivatives Comprise $54.6 Trillion
Of
> > Risk Among Few Banks Left Standing
> >
> > "Today, the same commercial banking heavyweights thought to be the
> > most safe, JPMorgan, Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America, hold 92
> > percent of all the disclosed credit derivative contracts,
according
> > to the OCC".
> >
> > http://www.cbsnews. com/stories/ 2008/10/10/ cbsnews_investig
> > ates/main451
> >
<http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/10/cbsnews_investigates/main45
1>
> > 4163.shtml
> >
> > c) Lehmans CDS's obligations. ..auction? .
> > Obligated parties may have hedged already?. WaMu and others yet to
> > unwind.
> >
> > http://www.washingt onpost.com/ wp-
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp->
> > dyn/content/ article/2008/ 10/10/AR20081010 03050.html
> >
> > d) Depository Trust Clearing Corporation debunks speculation on
> > CreditDefaultSwaps market and claims "Lehman Credit Default Swap
> > Worries Overblown".
> >
> > http://www.marketwa tch.com/news/ story/dtcc- addresses-
> > misconceptions-
> > <http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dtcc-addresses-
misconceptions->
> > about-credit/ story.aspx? guid=%7B7B5C1B13 -9F34-44C0- 971B-
16EEF9FC0D6 4%
> > 7D&dist=hppr
> >
> > e) The official position ? from the Office of the Comptroller of
the
> > Currency (OCC)
> >
> > June30 ? scroll down for tables/charts on CDS exposure
> >
> > http://www.occ. treas.gov/ ftp/release/ 2008-115a. pdf
> > <http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2008-115a.pdf>
> >
> > f) Archeological footprints in the sand???
> >
> > http://globaleconom icanalysis. blogspot. com/2008/ 09/thoughts-
> > on-credit-
> > <http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/09/thoughts-on-
credit->
> > default-swaps. html
> >
> > (there wasn't anything on TV)
> >
> > brian_z
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx ps.com
> > <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>, "brian_z111"
<brian_z111@ ...>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > Hello Ken,
> > >
> > > I agree that the community is a pool of trading experience if
> > people
> > > do want to share it..... the difficulty is confining it to trade
> > talk
> > > and not politics.
> > >
> > > > How has the turmoil in your local
> > > > economy/exchange/ country influenced how you trade and what
your
> > > >more recent
> > > > performance is? What are you doing or do you think you will
> > doing
> > > >in the
> > > > next days and weeks
> > >
> > > I have already flagged my opinion and some of what I consider
to be
> > > appropriate strategies in previous posts, some going back quite
a
> > way.
> > >
> > > a) value investing ... not my strategy ... another brilliant
> > > exposition by Buffet in the last two weeks ... right now some
> > stocks
> > > are at incredible value PROVIDED you really are buying FOREVER
and
> > > you do have the stomach for the ride i.e. you really don't care
> > what
> > > the 'price' is doing because you are happy with the yield.
> > >
> > >
> > > I also posted some indications of the relative value of the
> > > Australian market ... this is fundamentally a US problem that
Aus
> > was
> > > partly isolated from ... except for the longer term affects on
> > global
> > > economies ... refer to the following link (take the link, at the
> > top
> > > of the page, to the full PDF review to see detailed comment and
> > > graphs on why Aus financials are not going down the gurgler ...
> > small
> > > % of Aus mortgae market is in US equivalent to sub-primes ...
> > > delinquincy rates are low etc)
> > >
> > >
> > http://www.rba. gov.au/Publicati onsAndResearch/ FinancialStabili
> > tyReview
> >
<http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/FinancialStabilityRevie
w>
> > > /Sep2008/Html/ financial_ stability_ review_0908. html
> > >
> > > The current crisis crystallised my view that investors should
buy
> > > yield at the bottom and anticipate growth as the cycle matures
to a
> > > new bull run.
> > >
> > > Note that in Australia payout ratios are high and earnings
yield is
> > > often delivered as dividend yield along with tax breaks for high
> > > earners.
> > >
> > > Another difference is that in Australia superannuation saving is
> > > compulsory, in the form of payroll deductions ... large amounts
of
> > > money are still flowing into Aus retirement funds ... it is
sitting
> > > on the sidelines in the form of cash so when the market is
deemed
> > to
> > > have hit the bottom their is sufficient cash in reserve to
sustain
> > a
> > > good start to a new bull cycle.
> > >
> > > On top of that Aus interest rates are at 6% and have room to
move
> > > plus the economy is basically sound.
> > >
> > > Against this is the fact that right now we have gone past
> > nervousness
> > > to 'rabbit in the headlight' fear ... no one can predict what
can
> > > happen in that environment or what people will do.
> > >
> > >
> > > So there are some great long term opportunities for very brave
> > > investors but you have to do the analysis on the earning
streams of
> > > companies to estimate their stability into the future.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > My own response:
> > >
> > > I made these decisions a long way back .... not to hold foreign
> > > accounts .... not to be an 'investor' .... not to rely entirely
on
> > > mechanical trading .... not to be a long term trader ... to
trade
> > > short as naturally as I trade long ... not to impose my
theories on
> > > the market but to let the market dicate trades to me (based on
the
> > > charts)... not to have an inflexible attitude about what my
trading
> > > style should be .... to take into account the news of the day,
both
> > > in general and specifically with reference to sectors or
companies
> > of
> > > interest.
> > >
> > > In the short term the only adjustment I have made to strategy
is to
> > > move away from short term trades (a few days) and move towards
> > > intraday ..... I was aleady biased to intraday trading anyway
but
> > > more than ever at the moment....
> > >
> > > DO NOT HOLD OVERNIGHT OR WEEKEND POSTIONS
> > >
> > > ... an afterhours political decision can kill you.
> > >
> > > I am in cash every night.
> > >
> > > Gold and oil are extremely volatile so that makes for a good
> > intraday
> > > payday ... the negative there is that volatility can kill you if
> > you
> > > are on the wrong side of it..... once again prices can leap over
> > > stops.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > The state of the markets:
> > >
> > > What I am watching now is the situation in Europe ... it seems
to
> > > have peaked around Iceland ... Iceland can't afford to buy its
way
> > > out of trouble but it looks like other nations are helping
out ...
> > > Russia lent a few billion Euros ... Holland lent them the money
to
> > > guarantee the retail deposits of Dutch accounts with Icelandic
> > > banks ... UK about to do the same.
> > >
> > > So, unless there is anymore shocking Euro news there may be an
end
> > in
> > > sight for Europe.
> > >
> > > Unfortunately all roads lead to Wall Street.
> > >
> > > I find the view of economist Jubak credible i.e. that the
sticking
> > > point is the carry forward debt of Lehman's ... unknown owners
at
> > > this stage ... refer to the link below for a video
discussion ...
> > > Lehmans CreditDefaultSwaps auctioned last friday establishes
debt,
> > > for holders of approx 91 cents/$ ... to be cleared by the end of
> > > October ... the companies holding that debt should be known
before
> > > then.
> > >
> > > [scroll down to "Is It The End OF Financial World?" video]
> > >
> > > http://moneycentral .msn.com/ investor/ home.asp
> > <http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/home.asp>
> > >
> > > I also agree with Noriel Roubini's recent comments (I posted a
link
> > > to his RGE Monitor site before) ... IMO Govt's didn't act
radically
> > > enough, or with enough haste, but it is easy to be an armchair
> > critic.
> > >
> > > All the best with your trading.
> > >
> > > brian_z
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx ps.com
> > <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>, "Ken Close" <ken45140@>
wrote:
> > > >
> > > > I realize that this is off topic, but this list has two
> > > characteristics that
> > > > make this post potentially interesting as well as relevant.
> > > >
> > > > We have members from all over the world, representing
> > participants
> > > and
> > > > citizens in many, many countries.
> > > >
> > > > We also have members who trade differently using different
> > > securities and
> > > > different approaches.
> > > >
> > > > My question is: are you making money in the current volatile
> > > economic
> > > > climate and if so how? How has the turmoil in your local
> > > > economy/exchange/ country influenced how you trade and what
your
> > > more recent
> > > > performance is? What are you doing or do you think you will
> > doing
> > > in the
> > > > next days and weeks (as it changes so frequently, who knows
what
> > > months will
> > > > bring)?
> > > >
> > > > I realize we seldom talk about anything but coding and user
> > issues
> > > with the
> > > > AB program, but could we have a departure for a moment, at
least
> > in
> > > this
> > > > thread, to comment on how you see the near term future in your
> > neck
> > > of the
> > > > (woods) world, and what you are doing about your trading
and/or
> > > investing.
> > > >
> > > > I personally am heavily hedged, ie, own high percentage of
> > inverse
> > > funds,
> > > > along with one position in a top performing and so far, slower
> > > losing mutual
> > > > fund (OAKBX) as well as a few stocks that are truly buy and
> > hold.
> > > Down
> > > > about 3% year to date and would have been positive if I had
> > > unloaded other
> > > > long (hedged) positions sooner.
> > > >
> > > > Any comments?
> > > >
> > > > Thanks,
> > > >
> > > > Ken
> > > >
> > >
> >
> >
>
------------------------------------
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