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Take my words for it, Brian, you gave all the elements to believe in the
system...
To be trusteful in politics and financial people we should be mad or a
philosophe, no ?
Best regards
brian_z111 a écrit :
>
> LEVERAGING BANKRUPTCY!
>
> A few more articles on CreditDefaultSwaps (CDS) ... old news now to
> insiders and those in the industry.
>
> Opinions vary on how much risk is still out there, what it totals up
> to and who, exactly, is holding the parcel.
>
> How much of the perceived risk is fear and how much is real the
> markets are yet to show us... last weeks selldown in the US majors
> that hold most of the CDS exposure may be the discounted value... the
> problem is that they can't actually be valued at anytime ... further
> declines in the market, and economic prospects, could trigger more
> defaults.
>
> Curious how JPM hasn't been hammered as much as C and BAC ...
> haven't figure that one out yet.
>
> Anyway... a couple of pessimistic reviews, an optimistic denouncement
> and a factual report from the US regulator, amongst other things.
>
> a) Credit Default Swaps: The Next Crisis?
> Times.
> Monday, Mar. 17, 2008
>
> http://www.time. com/time/ business/ article/0, 8599,1723152, 00.html
> <http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1723152,00.html>
>
> b) The Next Banking Bomb?
> CBS News Investigates: Credit Derivatives Comprise $54.6 Trillion Of
> Risk Among Few Banks Left Standing
>
> "Today, the same commercial banking heavyweights thought to be the
> most safe, JPMorgan, Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America, hold 92
> percent of all the disclosed credit derivative contracts, according
> to the OCC".
>
> http://www.cbsnews. com/stories/ 2008/10/10/ cbsnews_investig
> ates/main451
> <http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/10/cbsnews_investigates/main451>
> 4163.shtml
>
> c) Lehmans CDS's obligations. ..auction… .
> Obligated parties may have hedged already…. WaMu and others yet to
> unwind.
>
> http://www.washingt onpost.com/ wp- <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp->
> dyn/content/ article/2008/ 10/10/AR20081010 03050.html
>
> d) Depository Trust Clearing Corporation debunks speculation on
> CreditDefaultSwaps market and claims "Lehman Credit Default Swap
> Worries Overblown".
>
> http://www.marketwa tch.com/news/ story/dtcc- addresses-
> misconceptions-
> <http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dtcc-addresses-misconceptions->
> about-credit/ story.aspx? guid=%7B7B5C1B13 -9F34-44C0- 971B-16EEF9FC0D6 4%
> 7D&dist=hppr
>
> e) The official position … from the Office of the Comptroller of the
> Currency (OCC)
>
> June30 – scroll down for tables/charts on CDS exposure
>
> http://www.occ. treas.gov/ ftp/release/ 2008-115a. pdf
> <http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2008-115a.pdf>
>
> f) Archeological footprints in the sand???
>
> http://globaleconom icanalysis. blogspot. com/2008/ 09/thoughts-
> on-credit-
> <http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/09/thoughts-on-credit->
> default-swaps. html
>
> (there wasn't anything on TV)
>
> brian_z
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx ps.com
> <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@ ...>
> wrote:
> >
> > Hello Ken,
> >
> > I agree that the community is a pool of trading experience if
> people
> > do want to share it..... the difficulty is confining it to trade
> talk
> > and not politics.
> >
> > > How has the turmoil in your local
> > > economy/exchange/ country influenced how you trade and what your
> > >more recent
> > > performance is? What are you doing or do you think you will
> doing
> > >in the
> > > next days and weeks
> >
> > I have already flagged my opinion and some of what I consider to be
> > appropriate strategies in previous posts, some going back quite a
> way.
> >
> > a) value investing ... not my strategy ... another brilliant
> > exposition by Buffet in the last two weeks ... right now some
> stocks
> > are at incredible value PROVIDED you really are buying FOREVER and
> > you do have the stomach for the ride i.e. you really don't care
> what
> > the 'price' is doing because you are happy with the yield.
> >
> >
> > I also posted some indications of the relative value of the
> > Australian market ... this is fundamentally a US problem that Aus
> was
> > partly isolated from ... except for the longer term affects on
> global
> > economies ... refer to the following link (take the link, at the
> top
> > of the page, to the full PDF review to see detailed comment and
> > graphs on why Aus financials are not going down the gurgler ...
> small
> > % of Aus mortgae market is in US equivalent to sub-primes ...
> > delinquincy rates are low etc)
> >
> >
> http://www.rba. gov.au/Publicati onsAndResearch/ FinancialStabili
> tyReview
> <http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/FinancialStabilityReview>
> > /Sep2008/Html/ financial_ stability_ review_0908. html
> >
> > The current crisis crystallised my view that investors should buy
> > yield at the bottom and anticipate growth as the cycle matures to a
> > new bull run.
> >
> > Note that in Australia payout ratios are high and earnings yield is
> > often delivered as dividend yield along with tax breaks for high
> > earners.
> >
> > Another difference is that in Australia superannuation saving is
> > compulsory, in the form of payroll deductions ... large amounts of
> > money are still flowing into Aus retirement funds ... it is sitting
> > on the sidelines in the form of cash so when the market is deemed
> to
> > have hit the bottom their is sufficient cash in reserve to sustain
> a
> > good start to a new bull cycle.
> >
> > On top of that Aus interest rates are at 6% and have room to move
> > plus the economy is basically sound.
> >
> > Against this is the fact that right now we have gone past
> nervousness
> > to 'rabbit in the headlight' fear ... no one can predict what can
> > happen in that environment or what people will do.
> >
> >
> > So there are some great long term opportunities for very brave
> > investors but you have to do the analysis on the earning streams of
> > companies to estimate their stability into the future.
> >
> >
> >
> > My own response:
> >
> > I made these decisions a long way back .... not to hold foreign
> > accounts .... not to be an 'investor' .... not to rely entirely on
> > mechanical trading .... not to be a long term trader ... to trade
> > short as naturally as I trade long ... not to impose my theories on
> > the market but to let the market dicate trades to me (based on the
> > charts)... not to have an inflexible attitude about what my trading
> > style should be .... to take into account the news of the day, both
> > in general and specifically with reference to sectors or companies
> of
> > interest.
> >
> > In the short term the only adjustment I have made to strategy is to
> > move away from short term trades (a few days) and move towards
> > intraday ..... I was aleady biased to intraday trading anyway but
> > more than ever at the moment....
> >
> > DO NOT HOLD OVERNIGHT OR WEEKEND POSTIONS
> >
> > ... an afterhours political decision can kill you.
> >
> > I am in cash every night.
> >
> > Gold and oil are extremely volatile so that makes for a good
> intraday
> > payday ... the negative there is that volatility can kill you if
> you
> > are on the wrong side of it..... once again prices can leap over
> > stops.
> >
> >
> >
> > The state of the markets:
> >
> > What I am watching now is the situation in Europe ... it seems to
> > have peaked around Iceland ... Iceland can't afford to buy its way
> > out of trouble but it looks like other nations are helping out ...
> > Russia lent a few billion Euros ... Holland lent them the money to
> > guarantee the retail deposits of Dutch accounts with Icelandic
> > banks ... UK about to do the same.
> >
> > So, unless there is anymore shocking Euro news there may be an end
> in
> > sight for Europe.
> >
> > Unfortunately all roads lead to Wall Street.
> >
> > I find the view of economist Jubak credible i.e. that the sticking
> > point is the carry forward debt of Lehman's ... unknown owners at
> > this stage ... refer to the link below for a video discussion ...
> > Lehmans CreditDefaultSwaps auctioned last friday establishes debt,
> > for holders of approx 91 cents/$ ... to be cleared by the end of
> > October ... the companies holding that debt should be known before
> > then.
> >
> > [scroll down to "Is It The End OF Financial World?" video]
> >
> > http://moneycentral .msn.com/ investor/ home.asp
> <http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/home.asp>
> >
> > I also agree with Noriel Roubini's recent comments (I posted a link
> > to his RGE Monitor site before) ... IMO Govt's didn't act radically
> > enough, or with enough haste, but it is easy to be an armchair
> critic.
> >
> > All the best with your trading.
> >
> > brian_z
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx ps.com
> <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>, "Ken Close" <ken45140@> wrote:
> > >
> > > I realize that this is off topic, but this list has two
> > characteristics that
> > > make this post potentially interesting as well as relevant.
> > >
> > > We have members from all over the world, representing
> participants
> > and
> > > citizens in many, many countries.
> > >
> > > We also have members who trade differently using different
> > securities and
> > > different approaches.
> > >
> > > My question is: are you making money in the current volatile
> > economic
> > > climate and if so how? How has the turmoil in your local
> > > economy/exchange/ country influenced how you trade and what your
> > more recent
> > > performance is? What are you doing or do you think you will
> doing
> > in the
> > > next days and weeks (as it changes so frequently, who knows what
> > months will
> > > bring)?
> > >
> > > I realize we seldom talk about anything but coding and user
> issues
> > with the
> > > AB program, but could we have a departure for a moment, at least
> in
> > this
> > > thread, to comment on how you see the near term future in your
> neck
> > of the
> > > (woods) world, and what you are doing about your trading and/or
> > investing.
> > >
> > > I personally am heavily hedged, ie, own high percentage of
> inverse
> > funds,
> > > along with one position in a top performing and so far, slower
> > losing mutual
> > > fund (OAKBX) as well as a few stocks that are truly buy and
> hold.
> > Down
> > > about 3% year to date and would have been positive if I had
> > unloaded other
> > > long (hedged) positions sooner.
> > >
> > > Any comments?
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > >
> > > Ken
> > >
> >
>
>
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