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I am mainly referencing trading and saying I anticipate that market
volatility is the norm, in older developed economies, say, nations
in, or around, the G20 (I believe the nations in that group have a
commonality of culture).
IMO the volatility will continue on, irrespective of what changes are
made to Financial Regulations etc, although the catalysts that
trigger market implosions will vary and hopefully it will not be
attended by Financial Management crises and a 'run on the bank' again.
It may well be the norm, rather than the exception, in developing
markets too ... you might be right on that score .... I am not well
informed on the 'Asian Tiger' economies.
Re the Anglo economies:
I was referencing an IMF report, for the decade 95-2005, in which the
UK, USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand where the developed
nations that continually ran with a current account deficit.
In that period Japan and the Euros ran surpluses.
Since then things might have changed a little - I think Canada has
moved into surplus.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ed Hoopes" <reefbreak_sd@xxx>
wrote:
>
> I think the group of countries call "Asian Tigers" that suffered a
> similar bubble-then-collapse in the '80s & '90s would be offended by
> you calling them 'anglos'.
>
> This is a problem with free market capitalism - not race and
culture.
>
> ReefBreak
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
> >
> > Good call Tomasz..... and it is worth a post to caution traders
that
> > it seems unlikely the root causes will be acknowledged or
fixed... in
> > fact I doubt some contributing factors can be eliminated
(cultural
> > and individual/corporate rights issues etc) ... 5-10 years from
now
> > we will do it all again, with a new crew on board.... be aware
that
> > after a sustained bull run markets won't just fall they will
undergo
> > leveraged deficit implosions.
> >
> > Some relevant factors:
> >
> > - anglo countries tendency to run current account deficits (big
ones
> > in fact)
> > - incorrect and unimaginative Federal fiscal policies (I am not
> > picking on the US because it is not confined to the US)
> > - modern cultures tendency to run on credit as normal (in the
anglo
> > countries acceptance of credit is a generational change ...
perhaps
> > on all modern economies)
> > - the theory that interest rates and property/stockmarket booms
run
> > in opposed cycles is incorrect ... leveraged property booms and
> > leveraged market cycles feed off each other
> > - democracy delivers us freedom from civil war but not
necessarily
> > great leadership
> > - statistically speaking, brilliant people only comprise a small
% of
> > our community and they are unlikely to ever hold power in any
field
> > of endeavour (they are always outweighed by popular opinion).
> >
> > Traders need to adapt their methods to the dominant financial
> > paradigm.
> >
> >
> >
> > Predictions?
> >
> > Currently 'new' Asian economies are cash based but they will
emulate
> > the modern western economies along with growing maturity and
> > generational change.
> >
> > Perhaps Japan is the example in that they learnt the lesson of
> > copying western economic excesses in the 90's and have returned
to
> > their cultural roots of being a thrifty society....but can that
> > culturesurvive the new generation IT?
> >
> >
> > Still nothing that the 'mother of all sales' of kids, boys and
girls
> > toys won't fix.
> >
> > brian_z
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > It was known since 'the beginning of the universe' that there
is no
> > profit without risk
> > > but there are always new generations of "experts" that say
> > that "this time is different".
> > > And the market proves they are wrong, and the history repeats
over
> > and over again.
> > > The problem is that the leverage goes up and up and subsequent
> > disasters getting stronger.
> > >
> > > Best regards,
> > > Tomasz Janeczko
> > > amibroker.com
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@>
> > > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Friday, October 03, 2008 1:50 PM
> > > Subject: [amibroker] OT: A mathematicians guide to the news
> > >
> > >
> > > > http://www.slate.com/id/2201428/
> > > >
> > > > Yuki
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ------------------------------------
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> >
>
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