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Anyone who is interested in the economic theories behind the current
Financial Management crisis might be interested in Roubini's work.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html?
pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=business
Ed - the cultural influence I was referring to is the generational
change that occurs when the children of self made men/women are born
into affluence, which is the inevitable outcome of older developed
economies..... something that Aus has in common with the USA.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> I am mainly referencing trading and saying I anticipate that market
> volatility is the norm, in older developed economies, say, nations
> in, or around, the G20 (I believe the nations in that group have a
> commonality of culture).
>
> IMO the volatility will continue on, irrespective of what changes
are
> made to Financial Regulations etc, although the catalysts that
> trigger market implosions will vary and hopefully it will not be
> attended by Financial Management crises and a 'run on the bank'
again.
>
> It may well be the norm, rather than the exception, in developing
> markets too ... you might be right on that score .... I am not well
> informed on the 'Asian Tiger' economies.
>
>
>
>
> Re the Anglo economies:
>
> I was referencing an IMF report, for the decade 95-2005, in which
the
> UK, USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand where the developed
> nations that continually ran with a current account deficit.
>
> In that period Japan and the Euros ran surpluses.
>
> Since then things might have changed a little - I think Canada has
> moved into surplus.
>
>
>
> brian_z
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ed Hoopes" <reefbreak_sd@>
> wrote:
> >
> > I think the group of countries call "Asian Tigers" that suffered a
> > similar bubble-then-collapse in the '80s & '90s would be offended
by
> > you calling them 'anglos'.
> >
> > This is a problem with free market capitalism - not race and
> culture.
> >
> > ReefBreak
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
wrote:
> > >
> > > Good call Tomasz..... and it is worth a post to caution traders
> that
> > > it seems unlikely the root causes will be acknowledged or
> fixed... in
> > > fact I doubt some contributing factors can be eliminated
> (cultural
> > > and individual/corporate rights issues etc) ... 5-10 years from
> now
> > > we will do it all again, with a new crew on board.... be aware
> that
> > > after a sustained bull run markets won't just fall they will
> undergo
> > > leveraged deficit implosions.
> > >
> > > Some relevant factors:
> > >
> > > - anglo countries tendency to run current account deficits (big
> ones
> > > in fact)
> > > - incorrect and unimaginative Federal fiscal policies (I am not
> > > picking on the US because it is not confined to the US)
> > > - modern cultures tendency to run on credit as normal (in the
> anglo
> > > countries acceptance of credit is a generational change ...
> perhaps
> > > on all modern economies)
> > > - the theory that interest rates and property/stockmarket booms
> run
> > > in opposed cycles is incorrect ... leveraged property booms and
> > > leveraged market cycles feed off each other
> > > - democracy delivers us freedom from civil war but not
> necessarily
> > > great leadership
> > > - statistically speaking, brilliant people only comprise a
small
> % of
> > > our community and they are unlikely to ever hold power in any
> field
> > > of endeavour (they are always outweighed by popular opinion).
> > >
> > > Traders need to adapt their methods to the dominant financial
> > > paradigm.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Predictions?
> > >
> > > Currently 'new' Asian economies are cash based but they will
> emulate
> > > the modern western economies along with growing maturity and
> > > generational change.
> > >
> > > Perhaps Japan is the example in that they learnt the lesson of
> > > copying western economic excesses in the 90's and have returned
> to
> > > their cultural roots of being a thrifty society....but can that
> > > culturesurvive the new generation IT?
> > >
> > >
> > > Still nothing that the 'mother of all sales' of kids, boys and
> girls
> > > toys won't fix.
> > >
> > > brian_z
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@>
> > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > It was known since 'the beginning of the universe' that there
> is no
> > > profit without risk
> > > > but there are always new generations of "experts" that say
> > > that "this time is different".
> > > > And the market proves they are wrong, and the history repeats
> over
> > > and over again.
> > > > The problem is that the leverage goes up and up and
subsequent
> > > disasters getting stronger.
> > > >
> > > > Best regards,
> > > > Tomasz Janeczko
> > > > amibroker.com
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@>
> > > > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Friday, October 03, 2008 1:50 PM
> > > > Subject: [amibroker] OT: A mathematicians guide to the news
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > http://www.slate.com/id/2201428/
> > > > >
> > > > > Yuki
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > ------------------------------------
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> > >
> >
>
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