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[amibroker] Re: OT: A mathematicians guide to the news



PureBytes Links

Trading Reference Links

Anyone who is interested in the economic theories behind the current 
Financial Management crisis might be interested in Roubini's work.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html?
pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=business

Ed - the cultural influence I was referring to is the generational 
change that occurs when the children of self made men/women are born 
into affluence, which is the inevitable outcome of older developed 
economies..... something that Aus has in common with the USA.

brian_z


--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> I am mainly referencing trading and saying I anticipate that market 
> volatility is the norm, in older developed economies, say, nations 
> in, or around, the G20 (I believe the nations in that group have a 
> commonality of culture).
> 
> IMO the volatility will continue on, irrespective of what changes 
are 
> made to Financial Regulations etc, although the catalysts that 
> trigger market implosions will vary and hopefully it will not be 
> attended by Financial Management crises and a 'run on the bank' 
again.
> 
> It may well be the norm, rather than the exception, in developing 
> markets too ... you might be right on that score .... I am not well 
> informed on the 'Asian Tiger' economies. 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Re the Anglo economies:
> 
> I was referencing an IMF report, for the decade 95-2005, in which 
the 
> UK, USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand where the developed 
> nations that continually ran with a current account deficit.
> 
> In that period Japan and the Euros ran surpluses.
> 
> Since then things might have changed a little - I think Canada has 
> moved into surplus.
> 
> 
> 
> brian_z
> 
> 
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ed Hoopes" <reefbreak_sd@> 
> wrote:
> >
> > I think the group of countries call "Asian Tigers" that suffered a
> > similar bubble-then-collapse in the '80s & '90s would be offended 
by
> > you calling them 'anglos'.  
> > 
> > This is a problem with free market capitalism - not race and 
> culture.
> > 
> > ReefBreak
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> 
wrote:
> > >
> > > Good call Tomasz..... and it is worth a post to caution traders 
> that 
> > > it seems unlikely the root causes will be acknowledged or 
> fixed... in 
> > > fact I doubt some contributing factors can be eliminated 
> (cultural 
> > > and individual/corporate rights issues etc) ... 5-10 years from 
> now 
> > > we will do it all again, with a new crew on board.... be aware 
> that 
> > > after a sustained bull run markets won't just fall they will 
> undergo 
> > > leveraged deficit implosions.
> > > 
> > > Some relevant factors:
> > > 
> > > - anglo countries tendency to run current account deficits (big 
> ones 
> > > in fact)
> > > - incorrect and unimaginative Federal fiscal policies (I am not 
> > > picking on the US because it is not confined to the US)
> > > - modern cultures tendency to run on credit as normal (in the 
> anglo 
> > > countries acceptance of credit is a generational change ... 
> perhaps 
> > > on all modern economies)
> > > - the theory that interest rates and property/stockmarket booms 
> run 
> > > in opposed cycles is incorrect ... leveraged property booms and 
> > > leveraged market cycles feed off each other
> > > - democracy delivers us freedom from civil war but not 
> necessarily 
> > > great leadership
> > > - statistically speaking, brilliant people only comprise a 
small 
> % of 
> > > our community and they are unlikely to ever hold power in any 
> field 
> > > of endeavour (they are always outweighed by popular opinion).
> > > 
> > > Traders need to adapt their methods to the dominant financial 
> > > paradigm.
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > Predictions?
> > > 
> > > Currently 'new' Asian economies are cash based but they will 
> emulate 
> > > the modern western economies along with growing maturity and 
> > > generational change.
> > > 
> > > Perhaps Japan is the example in that they learnt the lesson of 
> > > copying western economic excesses in the 90's and have returned 
> to 
> > > their cultural roots of being a thrifty society....but can that 
> > > culturesurvive the new generation IT?
> > > 
> > > 
> > > Still nothing that the 'mother of all sales' of kids, boys and 
> girls 
> > > toys won't fix.
> > > 
> > > brian_z
> > > 
> > > 
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@> 
> > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > It was known since 'the beginning of the universe' that there 
> is no 
> > > profit without risk
> > > > but there are always new generations of "experts" that say 
> > > that "this time is different".
> > > > And the market proves they are wrong, and the history repeats 
> over 
> > > and over again.
> > > > The problem is that the leverage goes up and up and 
subsequent 
> > > disasters getting stronger. 
> > > > 
> > > > Best regards,
> > > > Tomasz Janeczko
> > > > amibroker.com
> > > > ----- Original Message ----- 
> > > > From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@>
> > > > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Friday, October 03, 2008 1:50 PM
> > > > Subject: [amibroker] OT: A mathematicians guide to the news
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > > > http://www.slate.com/id/2201428/
> > > > > 
> > > > > Yuki
> > > > > 
> > > > > 
> > > > > ------------------------------------
> > > > > 
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> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
>



------------------------------------

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