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Yuki,
(This is just as true of rule-based systems as it is of
discretionary trading; there is no difference at all in this respect between
the two types of trading. None. Zero. The system without drawdowns has yet
to be designed. And system traders don't also need discipline, and just as
much, if not more? C'mon. ![]() )
I wasn't saying that rule based didn't have
drawdowns, I was saying that for some people it is easier to follow rules when
things are going bad than to rely on their own judgment or feelings.
(I can't
believe I'm reading this. You are going to sit there and
type to the world
that 'thoroughly tested ... rules' are equivalent
to a mathematical edge? You
have to be joking, right? Mathematical
edges don't go on tilt and *stay* on
tilt forever. Trading systems
(which are NOT mathematical edges, but
assumptions about what might
prove to be edges -- and almost surely edges
with expiration dates --
based on historical research) do just
that)
I don't believe that system trading is the same as
a mathematical edge, just that a rules based program that has been tested
completely gives you a foundation which is like relying on a mathematical
edge.
(As an aside, the only game in the casino that I know of that can
be
tilted in favor of the player is Blackjack, and I sure wouldn't want
to
try and make a living at it for quite a few reasons that should be
obvious to
the casual observer.)
You must not be aware that there are video poker
machines that have a positive mathematical edge some as high as 2%. Of course,
the 2% machines are almost all gone. Look for books written by Bob Dancer.There
are so many people making a living playing video poker that the casinos have
been blackballing some video poker players. They also change the payouts on the
video poker machines to below 100% return or increase the dollar per point on
the cash back.
(When you lead with "the problem with discretionary trading is ... "
it
negates your disclaimer in the paragraph above. Certainly you are
saying that
rules are superior, because you claim that discretionary
traders will have
bad 'cycles' (as if rule-based traders will not,
certainly what you are
implying). And you are entitled to that
opinion. You're just not entitled to
say that it isn't your opinion
when you very clearly state what you have
stated.)
You are correct. I shouldn't have lead with that
statement. I should have said that "the problem for me was that with
discretionary trading........"
Thanks for your reply,
Tom
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