Re: [amibroker] Re: Futures or stocks?, AmiBroker Email List Archive

Hi Brian,

When you talk about a mentor, do you mean someone on the forum? I am open to your idea; however I wonder how a mentor could help me if I don't know yet what exactly I am trying to do... Hmm, or to put it as TomC said, why would someone who know how to write a great code doing mentorate or selling his system while he could just sit and watch his bank account grow?

That been said, of course I'd like some help. I know nobody using Amibroker except for this group.

You are right about impulsiveness; this is a major problem for me. And as trading is concerned, to me having a system is the only way I can go around this, as I have no problem to follow guidelines in which I have full confidence. (It reminds me about chess; I knew automatic moves of some opening up to move 21 and I amazed everyone playing those moves automatically. I never feared to do it because I was 100% sure they were the best moves. The only thing I had to do was to keep them in my memory. Now, it is the opposite. I must find the moves and AB will keep them in its memory!) But I need to be able to build that system.

Maybe my problem is that I have too good an example. As I said, I know someone who made a consistant 35%/year in the last 10 years (and over 50% in the last 2-3 years) so my goal is to improve over his discretionaty technique as this would allow me to sell my ideas or to work with him to implement them. Maybe this is asking too much. I don't know. I just know that I probably wouldn't be able (or would want to) to do discretionary trading as he does. To me discretionary trading looks like a dinosaur trying to use a IPhone. (Sorry for those who use it; that's just how I feel with it).

Thanks,

Louis

2008/8/1 brian_z111 <brian_z111@xxxxxxxxx>

Louis,

Gee you are a good sport.

> Brian is right when he says I am sipping the soup on a
> lot of tables but never stay for the meal.

I was mulling over your situation last evening (my time) and came to
a conclusion.

I wasn't going to say anything but since you brought it up again.

You have had a bad exeperience in the markets before - BAD
EXPERIENCES make strong lasting impressions on us.

Basically you have 'fear of failure' - you don't sit down to the meal
because you don't want the experience of a bad meal - you just cant
face up to that.

Possibly temperament or other life experiences are amplifying this.

The anTidote is quite simple - PREPARATION (practise, paper trading
etc).

Pick something, anything, and go all the way with it - right up to
paper trading at your brokers.
If it fails pick something else, and repeat, until you get a good one.
Then when you are sure keep practising a bit more, then practise some
more again until you are so over prepared that it is a joke - then if
it is still a good 'system' go ahead and trade with small amounts of
money only (if it has a bad turn it will only be a small negative
experience and you can cope with that).

Grit your teeth and learn to eat a lot of bad meals gracefully (in
trading over 90% of what we do never pays a dime).

For example, when I started trading I read books like "The Market
Wizards" that recounted the anecdotal trading stories of super
succesful traders and I noticed that a lot of the 'famous' traders
went boom and bust early in their careers - some of them more than
once - before they learnt not to do that anymore (pretty dumb huh).

I promised myself I would NEVER have a strong negative market
experience, as in 'get smashed' (I accpet my share of controlled
losses, yes, but getting smashed, no).

Why?

... because I don't need NEGATIVE experiences to learn to trade.
POSITIVE experience is a much better teacher.

MAKE YOUR NEGATIVE EXPERIENCES VIRTUAL EXPERIENCES UNTIL YOU DON'T
HAVE THEM ANY MORE - THEN START TRADING.

Impulsiveness is your weakness - if you don't control it, it will
control you.

I still think you should consider buying a system or getting a mentor
to help you get started but then you want if for free, right?

brian_z

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Louis P." <rockprog80@xxx> wrote:
>
> Hi group,
>
> The last thread which I started really helped me to realize a lot
of things,
> one of them is that Brian is right when he says I am sipping the
soup on a
> lot of tables but never stay for the meal.
>
> I'd like change that.
>
> I would like to concentrate on a particular kind of market (actions
or
> futures) and a particular timeframe (1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute,
1-hour,
> daily,etc).
>
> I know I may get zillions of different responses, but what do you
consider
> to be the more promising?
>
> I've read that more and more people consider futures are the future
(haha!)
> because of the high volatility and trading opportunities. Is this
true? If
> yes, how much money do I need to trade them? I've heard you need a
lot!
> And do I need to be there watching for 24 hours a day? And what
about
> stocks and ETF? I'd like to read some people opinion about what
they
> consider to be the most promising way...
>
> Of course, I won't start threads like this every two days! ;-)
I'm just
> really thinking about this all and am tired to switch markets,
timeframe,
> strategies, plans, all the time. I'd like to choose something and
stay with
> it. But I want to choose what's most promising!
>
> Thanks!
>
> Louis
>