On Jun 29, 2008, at 11:12 AM, bilbo0211 wrote:
> Hi Dennis,
>
>> First of all the right hand (starting) example you posted did not
>> look
> to be drawn from the correct lower right hand point. <
>
> Your assuming there is a correct set of pivots to use, that is not the
> case. Every triad of pivots is correct ( i.e., 2 pivot lows with the
> intervening high and vice versa) in the sense that they can point to
> significant pivot points; however, they don't all lead to significant
> reversal points.
> There are a lot of them (also remember some CIT points are pointed to
> by more than 1 triangle) which is why I need to do a detailed analysis
> to see how useful they can be. Duffy says significant pivot points and
> trend lines that touch more than 2 pivots yield better results but I
> cannot confirm that (yet).
>
>> I took a one minute ES chart and plotted as many as I could for the
> last couple of days. I found just one that hit a CIT bar. I would
> not bet a dime on these odds.<
>
> Not really a good choice. If you recall, I mentioned that some times
> the reversal only lasts for as little as 1 bar. A 1 bar (or few)
> reversal on a 1 minute chart is not likely to be significant; however,
> trading off 10 minute bar CIT points on a 1 minute chart could work
> out. Also remember that the precision with which the lines are drawn
> is critical.
>
> Wavemechanic is right on target when he says this is not a trading
> method, it is just another trading tool to be used in combination with
> others.
>
> Wavemechanic also referred to Reversal Magic in his post and it does
> appear to be partly based on the square and angle construction in
> Duffy's book.
>
> The RM vendor posted some projected Forex currency hourly CIT points
> in this forum message thread:
>
>
http://www.forex-tsd.com/suggestions-trading-systems/4252-reversal-magic-trading-system-4.html#post194232
>
> In the specific post that link points to, he demonstrates how you
> could have traded traded NZD/USD on 2/29/08. The results were 7
> trades, 4 wins, 3 losses, 131 pips profit (over $1000 per lot traded,
> I don't know the exact NZD/USD conversion rate, he also is likely to
> have chosen this day because of the good results).
>
> This is an interesting post because ot gives some insight into how you
> can interpret the CIT points for trading purposes.
>
> Bill
>
>
> --- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Dennis Brown <see3d@xxx> wrote:
>>
>> Hi Bill,
>>
>> You are right I did not understand that you were only talking about
>> time axis.
>>
>> I have no theory that says it is a study with an edge. I can only
>> come up with why you might be fooled into thinking it is.
>>
>> First of all the right hand (starting) example you posted did not
>> look
>> to be drawn from the correct lower right hand point. These are daily
>> bars (I usually work in minute bars), but if you mark every bar that
>> could be considered a CIT bar, you will find that there are a lot of
>> them. If you plot every possible 3 point setup, you will also find
>> that there are a lot of them, of which you only picked 3. Now if you
>> look at the probabilities of pointing to a CIT bar, you might find
>> that any random selection has about a 25% chance of hitting one
>> (eyeball guess). The eye/brain has the wonderful capacity to filter
>> out all the choices that don't fit the desired pattern.
>>
>> I took a one minute ES chart and plotted as many as I could for the
>> last couple of days. I found just one that hit a CIT bar. I would
>> not bet a dime on these odds.
>>
>> The theory I previously outlined to you has some logic to it, and it
>> does have a statistical bias based on human behavior.
>>
>> However, I encourage you to test it out for your self. There may be
>> something I am missing.
>> No need for an AFL, just hand draw 20, then pick what price you would
>> propose buying (like the open) and selling (like the close 2 or 3
>> bars
>> later) at and see how it works. Fill out every case, without seeing
>> into the future where they cross and then see how many are right. If
>> you can not get about 75% right, you will have a hard time making
>> money with this setup.
>>
>> Best regards,
>> Dennis
>>
>> On Jun 28, 2008, at 10:21 PM, bilbo0211 wrote:
>>
>>> Hi Dennis,
>>>
>>> I think you missed the point of the CIT indicators. This is
>>> strictly a
>>> time based indicator it is not a S/R point. It points to a specific
>>> bar on which the trend should change direction.
>>>
>>> The point where the 'trend' lines cross is usually not very close to
>>> the price. It usually points to the exact bar where price changes
>>> trend.
>>>
>>> That is why I said "it must be tapping into some underlying market
>>> symmetry or cycle".
>>>
>>> Look at the 3 examples drawn on the current NDX daily chart pointing
>>> exactly to 3 pivot high bars (black lines) on the file I just posted
>>> in the files section (changeInTrend1.png).
>>>
>>> Bill
>>>
>>>
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>>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>
> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> SUPPORT {at}
amibroker.com
>
> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
>
http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
>
> For other support material please check also:
>
http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>