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20 - (- 9.3_ == approx delta 30% PA in my books.
Thanks Yuki for confirming this.
Now I don't have to post a 30% system (as I promised Louis) to prove
my benchmark is correct.
Actually I agree with both you and Steve (the real problem is
semantics since IMO close analysis would show that most of us are
moementum traders and also that most of us are using a kind of S/R in
some way - the difference is how we perceive and define these things).
I will stick to my prediction that around 30%PA EOD trading is a
limit for indicators that use lookback periods and that to achieve
more than this requires a different approach (as I say you are both
correct except I believe that Steve is talking about >30%PA returns).
(Steve - care to confirm?)
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxx> wrote:
>
> Gee, then I guess I should give back my ~20 percent a year that is
> largely based on short-term momentum swings, yes? (I'm sitting plus
> 13 percent YTD this year already, as of yesterday, versus -9.3
> percent for my Nikkei 225 benchmark.)
>
> You do have to be agile however. And you cannot overstay your
> welcome. But the money is there for momentum systems if designed
> and tested properly.
>
> "Support" exists, but everyone knows where it is. Exactly where it
> is. And somebody (I'll leave it to you to guess who) is going to
> ring the bell and tell you that (resistance failed) or (support
> failed). What are you going to do, then? You're going to stop
> yourself out of course. With a loser.
>
> Which is likely to be more profitable, and for a longer period of
> time? Systems that compel you to do the psychologically difficult,
> or systems that suggest that you do the patently obvious?
>
> Is there anyone beyond 7th grade that doesn't know where support and
> resistance is? Are there great systems that rely on widely known
> community knowledge?
>
> Look for a system that has good metrics, but a system that also
> suggests that what you need to do will be psychologically difficult
> for you to do, in spite of having back-tested results indicating
that
> you are foolish if you *don't* do it. Then you are good to go, as
> they say. Good to go as long as you do it, of course.
>
> If your system is easy to follow (by that, I mean that it's
> psychologically easy for you to make the trades), it's probably a
> loser. And vice-versa. The best systems have good metrics, yet
> despite that they almost defy the trader (psychologically) to make
> the trades. There is no free lunch.
>
> Yuki
>
> Thursday, May 8, 2008, 11:50:01 AM, you wrote:
>
>
> s> Anthony,
>
> s> Do yourself a big favor. Don't waste your precious time on this
> s> earth with this kind of drivel. Chasing price with momentum
> s> indicators is not going to get you where you want to be.
>
> s> Coming up with a support/resistance system is all you need to
make
> s> whatever you want from the markets.
>
> s> I've seen hundreds of traders get wiped out trying to go on the
path
> s> you're following and all of the successful traders I've been
around
> s> in the e-mini futures have used S/R as the foundation of their
> s> trading methodology.
>
> s> And, above all, embrace your emotions in trading because they
teach
> s> you what you should and shouldn't do going forward. Computers
learn
> s> nothing while you learn from every win and loss you make.
>
> s> Finding an edge in trading is easy. It's only hard if you're
using a
> s> computer to find a needle in a haystack because you didn't make
a
> s> good enough investment in real-time observations of the markets
while
> s> researching an edge you'd like to trade.. That makes all the
> s> difference in the world for knowing what works and what doesn't.
>
> s> You'll come up with 10 edges to trade if you put the time in to
> s> experience a live market on a regular basis without trying so
hard.
> s> It will bring out your imagination and creativity to find what
you're
> s> looking for.
>
> s> I wish someone had told me that 4.5 years ago when I started
trading
> s> the ER2 e-mini. It would have saved me a lot of time chasing
> s> nonsense.
>
>
> s> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "ihsaham" <ihsaham@> wrote:
> >>
> >> Hai Tomasz,
> >>
> >> This is simple Jake Bernstein Momentum Formula for chart and
> s> scanner.
> >> Please help me give arrow buy and sell. Buy arrow is Green
colour
> s> and
> >> Sell Arrow is Red Colour.
> >>
> >> I really appreciate and thanks for you in advance.
> >>
> >> Best Regards,
> >> Anthony Idic
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> _SECTION_BEGIN(" $ Momentum ");
> >>
> >>
> >> /* Bernstein Momentum Indicator */
> >> /* Set Scaling to Automatic, Show dates On, Percent On, Middle
On */
> >>
> >> Title = "Bernstein MOM Close - Ref(Close,-7)";
> >> GraphXSpace = 5;
> >> Graph0 = MA(Close - Ref(Close,-7),1);
> >> Graph0Style = 5;
> >> Graph0Color = 29;
> >> Graph1 = MA(Graph0,5);
> >> Graph1Style = 1;
> >> Graph1Color = 32;
> >>
> >>
> >> DaysAgo =Optimize("DaysAgo",-28,-40,-16,4);
> >> Fast = Optimize("Fast", 1, 1,5,1);
> >> Slow = Optimize("Slow",28,16,40,4);
> >> /* Note: It is merely a coincidence that DaysAgo and Slow use
the
> >> same parameter set. */
> >>
> >> Buy = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast),
> >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow) );
> >>
> >> Sell = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow),
> >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast) );
> >>
> >>
> >> Short = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow),
> >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast) );
> >>
> >> Cover = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast),
> >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow) );
> >> _SECTION_END();
> >>
>
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