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Gee, then I guess I should give back my ~20 percent a year that is
largely based on short-term momentum swings, yes? (I'm sitting plus
13 percent YTD this year already, as of yesterday, versus -9.3
percent for my Nikkei 225 benchmark.)
You do have to be agile however. And you cannot overstay your
welcome. But the money is there for momentum systems if designed
and tested properly.
"Support" exists, but everyone knows where it is. Exactly where it
is. And somebody (I'll leave it to you to guess who) is going to
ring the bell and tell you that (resistance failed) or (support
failed). What are you going to do, then? You're going to stop
yourself out of course. With a loser.
Which is likely to be more profitable, and for a longer period of
time? Systems that compel you to do the psychologically difficult,
or systems that suggest that you do the patently obvious?
Is there anyone beyond 7th grade that doesn't know where support and
resistance is? Are there great systems that rely on widely known
community knowledge?
Look for a system that has good metrics, but a system that also
suggests that what you need to do will be psychologically difficult
for you to do, in spite of having back-tested results indicating that
you are foolish if you *don't* do it. Then you are good to go, as
they say. Good to go as long as you do it, of course.
If your system is easy to follow (by that, I mean that it's
psychologically easy for you to make the trades), it's probably a
loser. And vice-versa. The best systems have good metrics, yet
despite that they almost defy the trader (psychologically) to make
the trades. There is no free lunch.
Yuki
Thursday, May 8, 2008, 11:50:01 AM, you wrote:
s> Anthony,
s> Do yourself a big favor. Don't waste your precious time on this
s> earth with this kind of drivel. Chasing price with momentum
s> indicators is not going to get you where you want to be.
s> Coming up with a support/resistance system is all you need to make
s> whatever you want from the markets.
s> I've seen hundreds of traders get wiped out trying to go on the path
s> you're following and all of the successful traders I've been around
s> in the e-mini futures have used S/R as the foundation of their
s> trading methodology.
s> And, above all, embrace your emotions in trading because they teach
s> you what you should and shouldn't do going forward. Computers learn
s> nothing while you learn from every win and loss you make.
s> Finding an edge in trading is easy. It's only hard if you're using a
s> computer to find a needle in a haystack because you didn't make a
s> good enough investment in real-time observations of the markets while
s> researching an edge you'd like to trade.. That makes all the
s> difference in the world for knowing what works and what doesn't.
s> You'll come up with 10 edges to trade if you put the time in to
s> experience a live market on a regular basis without trying so hard.
s> It will bring out your imagination and creativity to find what you're
s> looking for.
s> I wish someone had told me that 4.5 years ago when I started trading
s> the ER2 e-mini. It would have saved me a lot of time chasing
s> nonsense.
s> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "ihsaham" <ihsaham@xxx> wrote:
>>
>> Hai Tomasz,
>>
>> This is simple Jake Bernstein Momentum Formula for chart and
s> scanner.
>> Please help me give arrow buy and sell. Buy arrow is Green colour
s> and
>> Sell Arrow is Red Colour.
>>
>> I really appreciate and thanks for you in advance.
>>
>> Best Regards,
>> Anthony Idic
>>
>>
>>
>> _SECTION_BEGIN(" $ Momentum ");
>>
>>
>> /* Bernstein Momentum Indicator */
>> /* Set Scaling to Automatic, Show dates On, Percent On, Middle On */
>>
>> Title = "Bernstein MOM Close - Ref(Close,-7)";
>> GraphXSpace = 5;
>> Graph0 = MA(Close - Ref(Close,-7),1);
>> Graph0Style = 5;
>> Graph0Color = 29;
>> Graph1 = MA(Graph0,5);
>> Graph1Style = 1;
>> Graph1Color = 32;
>>
>>
>> DaysAgo =Optimize("DaysAgo",-28,-40,-16,4);
>> Fast = Optimize("Fast", 1, 1,5,1);
>> Slow = Optimize("Slow",28,16,40,4);
>> /* Note: It is merely a coincidence that DaysAgo and Slow use the
>> same parameter set. */
>>
>> Buy = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast),
>> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow) );
>>
>> Sell = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow),
>> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast) );
>>
>>
>> Short = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow),
>> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast) );
>>
>> Cover = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast),
>> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow) );
>> _SECTION_END();
>>
------------------------------------
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