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Yuki,
Surprized that you of all people left out the third way (the darkest
moment of the night is the seminal birth of the dawn (from
Conficianism or the Tao?)
So, for reversion to mean traders, at the point where this ceases to
be a 'trend reversion' and becomes instead a 'trend reversal' then
they lose their pants (or skirt).
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxx> wrote:
>
> It depends on your own psychology. Whether you believe in mean
> reversion, or whether you believe price is a train, and how
strongly,
> will dictate what is easier for you.
>
> This is the basic dichotomy: mean-reversionists versus "price is a
> train" people.
>
> And of course both are right; just never at the same time.
>
> Yuki
>
> Thursday, May 8, 2008, 2:50:32 PM, you wrote:
>
>
> s> Which is more psychologically threatening?
>
> s> 1. Catching a train by running with it and hopping on board?
>
> s> or
>
> s> 2. Standing in front of the train and hoping it stops to allow
you on
> s> board, knowing very well that you could be on the wrong part of
the
> s> track and it runs you over instead?
>
> s> #1 requires agility. But it's psychologically easy to do.
>
> s> #2 requires emotional fortitude. It's psychologically difficult
to
> s> accept.
>
>
> s> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@> wrote:
> >>
> >> Gee, then I guess I should give back my ~20 percent a year that
is
> >> largely based on short-term momentum swings, yes? (I'm sitting
plus
> >> 13 percent YTD this year already, as of yesterday, versus -9.3
> >> percent for my Nikkei 225 benchmark.)
> >>
> >> You do have to be agile however. And you cannot overstay your
> >> welcome. But the money is there for momentum systems if designed
> >> and tested properly.
> >>
> >> "Support" exists, but everyone knows where it is. Exactly where
it
> >> is. And somebody (I'll leave it to you to guess who) is going to
> >> ring the bell and tell you that (resistance failed) or (support
> >> failed). What are you going to do, then? You're going to stop
> >> yourself out of course. With a loser.
> >>
> >> Which is likely to be more profitable, and for a longer period of
> >> time? Systems that compel you to do the psychologically
difficult,
> >> or systems that suggest that you do the patently obvious?
> >>
> >> Is there anyone beyond 7th grade that doesn't know where support
and
> >> resistance is? Are there great systems that rely on widely known
> >> community knowledge?
> >>
> >> Look for a system that has good metrics, but a system that also
> >> suggests that what you need to do will be psychologically
difficult
> >> for you to do, in spite of having back-tested results indicating
> s> that
> >> you are foolish if you *don't* do it. Then you are good to go,
as
> >> they say. Good to go as long as you do it, of course.
> >>
> >> If your system is easy to follow (by that, I mean that it's
> >> psychologically easy for you to make the trades), it's probably a
> >> loser. And vice-versa. The best systems have good metrics, yet
> >> despite that they almost defy the trader (psychologically) to
make
> >> the trades. There is no free lunch.
> >>
> >> Yuki
> >>
> >> Thursday, May 8, 2008, 11:50:01 AM, you wrote:
> >>
> >>
> >> s> Anthony,
> >>
> >> s> Do yourself a big favor. Don't waste your precious time on
this
> >> s> earth with this kind of drivel. Chasing price with momentum
> >> s> indicators is not going to get you where you want to be.
> >>
> >> s> Coming up with a support/resistance system is all you need to
> s> make
> >> s> whatever you want from the markets.
> >>
> >> s> I've seen hundreds of traders get wiped out trying to go on
the
> s> path
> >> s> you're following and all of the successful traders I've been
> s> around
> >> s> in the e-mini futures have used S/R as the foundation of
their
> >> s> trading methodology.
> >>
> >> s> And, above all, embrace your emotions in trading because they
> s> teach
> >> s> you what you should and shouldn't do going forward.
Computers
> s> learn
> >> s> nothing while you learn from every win and loss you make.
> >>
> >> s> Finding an edge in trading is easy. It's only hard if you're
> s> using a
> >> s> computer to find a needle in a haystack because you didn't
make
> s> a
> >> s> good enough investment in real-time observations of the
markets
> s> while
> >> s> researching an edge you'd like to trade.. That makes all
the
> >> s> difference in the world for knowing what works and what
doesn't.
> >>
> >> s> You'll come up with 10 edges to trade if you put the time in
to
> >> s> experience a live market on a regular basis without trying so
> s> hard.
> >> s> It will bring out your imagination and creativity to find
what
> s> you're
> >> s> looking for.
> >>
> >> s> I wish someone had told me that 4.5 years ago when I started
> s> trading
> >> s> the ER2 e-mini. It would have saved me a lot of time chasing
> >> s> nonsense.
> >>
> >>
> >> s> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "ihsaham" <ihsaham@> wrote:
> >> >>
> >> >> Hai Tomasz,
> >> >>
> >> >> This is simple Jake Bernstein Momentum Formula for chart and
> >> s> scanner.
> >> >> Please help me give arrow buy and sell. Buy arrow is Green
> s> colour
> >> s> and
> >> >> Sell Arrow is Red Colour.
> >> >>
> >> >> I really appreciate and thanks for you in advance.
> >> >>
> >> >> Best Regards,
> >> >> Anthony Idic
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> _SECTION_BEGIN(" $ Momentum ");
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> /* Bernstein Momentum Indicator */
> >> >> /* Set Scaling to Automatic, Show dates On, Percent On,
Middle
> s> On */
> >> >>
> >> >> Title = "Bernstein MOM Close - Ref(Close,-7)";
> >> >> GraphXSpace = 5;
> >> >> Graph0 = MA(Close - Ref(Close,-7),1);
> >> >> Graph0Style = 5;
> >> >> Graph0Color = 29;
> >> >> Graph1 = MA(Graph0,5);
> >> >> Graph1Style = 1;
> >> >> Graph1Color = 32;
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> DaysAgo =Optimize("DaysAgo",-28,-40,-16,4);
> >> >> Fast = Optimize("Fast", 1, 1,5,1);
> >> >> Slow = Optimize("Slow",28,16,40,4);
> >> >> /* Note: It is merely a coincidence that DaysAgo and Slow use
> s> the
> >> >> same parameter set. */
> >> >>
> >> >> Buy = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast),
> >> >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow) );
> >> >>
> >> >> Sell = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow),
> >> >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast) );
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> Short = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow),
> >> >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast) );
> >> >>
> >> >> Cover = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast),
> >> >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow) );
> >> >> _SECTION_END();
> >> >>
> >>
>
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