Re: [amibroker] Re: PA% Upper limits - was {Absolute value ATR?---> and some hope for building a sy}, AmiBroker Email List Archive

2008/2/26, brian_z111 <brian_z111@xxxxxxxxx>:

Dennis,

> No need to argue the point.

I believe there is a need to argue the point because negative
comments from other traders affect the way we trade and shouldn't go
unchallenged, especially if they not accompanied by objective
evidence.

I stand by my comment that 300-400%PA is the theoretical upper limit,
because if we are accepting actual returns of 40%PA we are not aiming
high enough and need to make a mental adjustment.

>Everyone is right, depending on the
> particular circumstances.

No, everyone is not right depending on circumstances.
To be 'right' means that our observations can be independently
verified by others.

If that isn't the case we are only suffering from self-delusion.

I agree with your points 100%.

Thnakyou very much for posting them.

brian_z

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Dennis Brown <see3d@xxx> wrote:
>
> No need to argue the point. Everyone is right, depending on the
> particular circumstances.
>
> As I have pointed out before, very high returns (>3%/day average)
are
> being made by some traders I know using hardly more than a ruler
for
> their TA --trading trend lines and support and resistance levels
on
> very short timeframes (seconds to minutes) --and perhaps a couple
of
> indicators like MACD or CCI. The key is leverage and that the
> winnings are not compounded, but taken off the table and used to
live
> on, or put into more conservative long term positions. The market
can
> not support large dollar compounding more than the average of the
long
> term growth of the better performing issues. You can skim large %
off
> small $ if you fly below the radar. Greed will not work to your
> advantage.
>
> Dennis
>
> On Feb 26, 2008, at 9:50 AM, dave_88_1961 wrote:
>
> >
> > 100% can be made in the early years but as the account grows
returns
> > diminish.
> >
> > Dave
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
wrote:
> >>
> >>
> >>> A profit of 1% per day, every trading day, grows so fast that
the
> >>> account balance is larger than all the real estate in the US in
just
> >>> a few years.
> >>
> >> Hypothetical numbers can be quoted to create a desired effect
e.g. if
> >> we put it this way, things look a lot different:
> >>
> >> A trader starting with $100K who returns 100%PA on average, and
> >> trades for 10 years, would be able to afford to buy a home in San
> >> Jose Calfornia, but not the best one in the area.
> >>
> >> Do you think many traders with that kind of performance would
> >> continue to trade after 10 successful years?
> >>
> >> brian_z
> >>
> >>
> >> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" brian_z111@ wrote:
> >>>
> >>> I draw your attention to the following article, especially item
3:
> >>>
> >>> "Who is the most unusual trader you ever interviewed"?
> >>>
> >>> http://www.moneybags.com.au/profile.asp?id=1363
> >>>
> >>> Two consecutive 300%PA plus public performances from Mark Cook.
> >>>
> >>> It is possible that he was just incredibly lucky (are we fooled
by
> >>> randomness a la Taleb)?
> >>>
> >>> He was also incredibly lucky for a period spanning 6 years
before
> >>> that (trading bonds and stock indexes!)
> >>>
> >>> Note that the period 1992-1993 when he publically achieved those
> >>> results was not a particularly outstanding two years for
equities.
> >>>
> >>> brian_z
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>> Howard,
> >>>>
> >>>>> Any time someone suggests a growth of more than about 40% per
> >>> year,
> >>>>> take that with a very large grain of salt.
> >>>>
> >>>> I expected you to disagree with my statement.
> >>>> I'm sure a lot of traders would be aghast at the numbers I
quoted
> >>> as
> >>>> the theoretical potential.
> >>>>
> >>>> At his website Professor John Price posts audited returns of
> >> approx
> >>>> 20-25% PA over a 5 year period, or more, using simple Techno-
> >>>> fundamental methods (as I recall the figures).
> >>>>
> >>>> The caveat there is that the sample period is short and
selective.
> >>>>
> >>>> Trading on margin that would return 30-35% PA with less than
half
> >>> an
> >>>> hour a days work and no effort to use any other timing
mechanisms.
> >>>>
> >>>> If your statement is true we can all give up any further
efforts
> >>> and
> >>>> simple trade his method.
> >>>>
> >>>> Similarly, the ASX, which is a high dividend paying market (due
> >> to
> >>>> franking) has total returns of in excess of 15% PA on average
> >> over
> >>>> longer time periods.
> >>>> Using simple leveraged buy&hold strategies that is 20-25%
without
> >>> any
> >>>> ongoing effort required what-so-ever.
> >>>>
> >>>> In "Stock Market Wizards", Schwager, Jack.D, Harper Business
2001
> >>> the
> >>>> first page of the first chapter in the book quotes Stuart
Walton,
> >>>> fund manager, who achieved "115 percent average annual
compounded
> >>>> return in trading profits" un 8 consecutive years during the
> >>> nineties.
> >>>>
> >>>> As I understand it Schwager's books are well researched and
based
> >>> on
> >>>> verifiable case studies?
> >>>>
> >>>> I only opened the book at the first chapter and didn't need to
go
> >>> any
> >>>> further or to his other 2 books containing similar testimonies.
> >>>>
> >>>> brian_z
> >>>>
> >>>
> >>
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
> >
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