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Louis,
The advice from Bill below about trading is the best general advice you are likely to receive.
I might also recommend a book to you "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas. This should be read every few months.
The TA is only 25% of successful trading, and must be accompanied by enough experience to not be fooled by randomness. Trading is not so easy to learn as chess. The rules are ever changing, but may be revisited in a generation. Any system must evolve with the market which is in constant evolution. It is best to specialize in only one kind of trade, or even one issue, such as a broad market ETF. There are too many variables to be good at everything. Find a profitable niche that is under exploited and make that your winning game. It may take time to develop a system you trust, but by knowing how to do one kind of trade better than anyone else, you will win more than you lose.
There are many who would sell you their trading systems. Not one in 20 is even worth taking the time to look at --even for free. Anything in a popular book will be over exploited --which means that they will just cost you commissions. However, knowing that 90% will be doing these things, gives you the opportunity to do the opposite and win.
In the end trading will take you on a journey of self discovery if you stick with it. When fear and greed are no longer part of your vocabulary, you will understand. The point of life is not to live like a pampered animal. Enough said.
Best regards, Dennis
On Feb 26, 2008, at 7:54 PM, wavemechanic wrote: The best system is one in which "you" control your emotions and emotional responses. Learn the basics of TA, stick to the simple stuff, and most importantly concentrate on money management. With that in hand, you can flip a coin and beat most. Bill ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, February 26, 2008 5:30 PM Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: PA% Upper limits - was {Absolute value ATR?---> and some hope for building a sy}
What do you think is the best way to get high-returns... Is it trend following, or switching from a breakout to another, or... For now I need to work on EOD data because of work I can't be there all day long, but what kind of system do you believe is the most profitable?
Thanks,
Louis
2008/2/26, brian_z111 <brian_z111@xxxxxxxxx>:Dennis,
> No need to argue the point.
I believe there is a need to argue the point because negative
comments from other traders affect the way we trade and shouldn't go
unchallenged, especially if they not accompanied by objective
evidence.
I stand by my comment that 300-400%PA is the theoretical upper limit,
because if we are accepting actual returns of 40%PA we are not aiming
high enough and need to make a mental adjustment.
>Everyone is right, depending on the
> particular circumstances.
No, everyone is not right depending on circumstances.
To be 'right' means that our observations can be independently
verified by others.
If that isn't the case we are only suffering from self-delusion.
I agree with your points 100%.
Thnakyou very much for posting them.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Dennis Brown <see3d@xxx> wrote:
>
> No need to argue the point. Everyone is right, depending on the
> particular circumstances.
>
> As I have pointed out before, very high returns (>3%/day average)
are
> being made by some traders I know using hardly more than a ruler
for
> their TA --trading trend lines and support and resistance levels
on
> very short timeframes (seconds to minutes) --and perhaps a couple
of
> indicators like MACD or CCI. The key is leverage and that the
> winnings are not compounded, but taken off the table and used to
live
> on, or put into more conservative long term positions. The market
can
> not support large dollar compounding more than the average of the
long
> term growth of the better performing issues. You can skim large %
off
> small $ if you fly below the radar. Greed will not work to your
> advantage.
>
> Dennis
>
> On Feb 26, 2008, at 9:50 AM, dave_88_1961 wrote:
>
> >
> > 100% can be made in the early years but as the account grows
returns
> > diminish.
> >
> > Dave
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
wrote:
> >>
> >>
> >>> A profit of 1% per day, every trading day, grows so fast that
the
> >>> account balance is larger than all the real estate in the US in
just
> >>> a few years.
> >>
> >> Hypothetical numbers can be quoted to create a desired effect
e.g. if
> >> we put it this way, things look a lot different:
> >>
> >> A trader starting with $100K who returns 100%PA on average, and
> >> trades for 10 years, would be able to afford to buy a home in San
> >> Jose Calfornia, but not the best one in the area.
> >>
> >> Do you think many traders with that kind of performance would
> >> continue to trade after 10 successful years?
> >>
> >> brian_z
> >>
> >>
> >> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" brian_z111@ wrote:
> >>>
> >>> I draw your attention to the following article, especially item
3:
> >>>
> >>> "Who is the most unusual trader you ever interviewed"?
> >>>
> >>> http://www.moneybags.com.au/profile.asp?id=1363
> >>>
> >>> Two consecutive 300%PA plus public performances from Mark Cook.
> >>>
> >>> It is possible that he was just incredibly lucky (are we fooled
by
> >>> randomness a la Taleb)?
> >>>
> >>> He was also incredibly lucky for a period spanning 6 years
before
> >>> that (trading bonds and stock indexes!)
> >>>
> >>> Note that the period 1992-1993 when he publically achieved those
> >>> results was not a particularly outstanding two years for
equities.
> >>>
> >>> brian_z
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>> Howard,
> >>>>
> >>>>> Any time someone suggests a growth of more than about 40% per
> >>> year,
> >>>>> take that with a very large grain of salt.
> >>>>
> >>>> I expected you to disagree with my statement.
> >>>> I'm sure a lot of traders would be aghast at the numbers I
quoted
> >>> as
> >>>> the theoretical potential.
> >>>>
> >>>> At his website Professor John Price posts audited returns of
> >> approx
> >>>> 20-25% PA over a 5 year period, or more, using simple Techno-
> >>>> fundamental methods (as I recall the figures).
> >>>>
> >>>> The caveat there is that the sample period is short and
selective.
> >>>>
> >>>> Trading on margin that would return 30-35% PA with less than
half
> >>> an
> >>>> hour a days work and no effort to use any other timing
mechanisms.
> >>>>
> >>>> If your statement is true we can all give up any further
efforts
> >>> and
> >>>> simple trade his method.
> >>>>
> >>>> Similarly, the ASX, which is a high dividend paying market (due
> >> to
> >>>> franking) has total returns of in excess of 15% PA on average
> >> over
> >>>> longer time periods.
> >>>> Using simple leveraged buy&hold strategies that is 20-25%
without
> >>> any
> >>>> ongoing effort required what-so-ever.
> >>>>
> >>>> In "Stock Market Wizards", Schwager, Jack.D, Harper Business
2001
> >>> the
> >>>> first page of the first chapter in the book quotes Stuart
Walton,
> >>>> fund manager, who achieved "115 percent average annual
compounded
> >>>> return in trading profits" un 8 consecutive years during the
> >>> nineties.
> >>>>
> >>>> As I understand it Schwager's books are well researched and
based
> >>> on
> >>>> verifiable case studies?
> >>>>
> >>>> I only opened the book at the first chapter and didn't need to
go
> >>> any
> >>>> further or to his other 2 books containing similar testimonies.
> >>>>
> >>>> brian_z
> >>>>
> >>>
> >>
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
> >
> > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> >
> > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
> > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> >
> > For other support material please check also:
> > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
>
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