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The linearity of the equity curve is probably one of the best measures
of predictable future performance, if you have enough data samples. I
believe one way to check for the linearity of the equity curve is the
standard error provided in the optimization table and backtest
report. I'd like to know what the precise definition of this standard
error criteria is, by the way.
The data I am working with is 1-minute bars, but part of it was
collected some time ago when IB was not providing after-market data
(last fall?), so my bars per day is not uniform, and therefore
the equity line will have a lower slope in recent months, so my
standard error measure is higher than it would be with uniform data.
Consequently, I've been experimenting with a variation that allows the
trades to be less uniformly distributed over time, but I want the
profit per trade average to be consistent. I average the profits from
the last 50 trades, for example, and compute the linearity of that
instead of the equity curve.
For both of these, we don't just want a straight equity line - it
should be a straight line that rises, so we really want a combination
of the net profit and this linearity measure, and one way of computing
that is netProfit / stdErr.
There is a lot more to this. Some other factors to consider are how
much of your equity you are risking with each trade, how long it is
tied up not doing something else, and the magnitude of your potential
loss.
Daniel LaLiberte
liberte@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
On Monday 04 June 2007 03:00 pm, Dennis Brown wrote:
> Alex,
>
> What you might be looking for is how straight the equity curve is. I
> have not tried this yet in automatic mode, but when I plot the equity
> curve I look for the gain and how straight the curve is. As a single
> number, that would likely be the correlation to a straight line
> between the start and ending equity values. That way you are not
> fooled by a single rare event.
>
> Dennis
>
> On Jun 4, 2007, at 2:50 PM, dralexchambers wrote:
> > I am currently testing and optimising a trading system over 1 year of
> > data, and sorting the results by Gross Profit Made.
> >
> > What I am finding is that by sorting the results by Gross Profit
> > Made, the system has long periods of small losses then one big gain.
> > Although over a year this provides a good return, drawdowns in the
> > interim are bad - and I am looking for regular cashflow with lower
> > drawdowns rather than the largest gain made over a year.
> >
> > Can anyone think of a way to optimise results for maximal cash-flow
> > each month rather than Gross Profit Made in a year? Is there a
> > mathematical formula I can use?
> >
> > I tried using a average of x bars, but this still doesn't solve the
> > problem, eg:
> >
> > Week 1: -$40
> > Week 2: -$40
> > Week 3: $8000
> >
> > whereas I would like more:
> >
> > Week 1: $900
> > Week 2: $1500
> > Week 3: $2000
> >
> > (this is a very simplified example but illustrates what I am after).
> >
> > Many thanks,
> > Alex
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