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" good autotrade program used with a leveraged vehicle obviously has
a huge potential" ...
... and huge risks, some of which have nothing to do with actual
price ...
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ara Kaloustian" <ara1@xxx> wrote:
>
> 1% a day, I feel is quite doable!!!
>
> I say this because of my emini day trading... where trading the NQ
I could make $300 to $1500 a day, depending on trading activity and
market conditions, trading with a $50K account, on a "regular
basis".... and it was not too difficult. Granted NQ had a 20:1
leverage! I feel that on average $1000 a day is quite reasonable
with a small account trading the NQ. When opprtunity presents itself
and the full capital of $50K is used a 10% return is possible.
>
> Taking all things into account, 1% / day is not too unreasonable
for stocks with some volatility. Granted one will have to be focuced
and have a good system.
>
> With the very minimum stock day trading I have done, finding and
catching the significant moves if difficult.
>
> I must admit, my bottom line is nothing to envy ... I found that I
make inexcusable emotional mistakes, that are very costly... Further,
being available to trade and in a good frame of mind is not always
possible, so at best 50% efficiency is probably possible ... and then
no silly mistakes allowed.
>
> I do have a couple of friends who do trade the NQ pretty much full
time ... and do quite well .... and obviously have a temperment
better than mine for day trading... so good returns are reasonable on
a consistent basis!!!
>
> I am optomistic about autotrading because it removes the subjective
and emotional components of one's trading, so a decent system that
incorporates good money management and recognizes poor / good trading
environment can produce a significant return.
>
> A good autotrade program used with a leveraged vehicle obviously
has a huge potential...
>
> So keep the faith ... and be careful! It will work out.
>
> Ara
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Ton Sieverding
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 12:35 AM
> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for Swing Trading?
>
>
> Herman thanks for your short resume of the Trading world. Just a
simple question. Do you really believe that group number 1 exists ?
So Traders that do generate with a minimum of code on a consistent
basis a daily return of 2,5% without losing their pants on a terrible
outlier or drawdown that will take them out of business ? My
experience is that only a very small group of about 5% of the '2,5%+
return Day Traders' is reaching for a relatively short period of time
the above target ...
>
> Regards, Ton.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Herman
> To: Howard B
> Cc: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 2:08 AM
> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for Swing Trading?
>
>
>
> Every few years this type of discussion surfaces and it is
great fun to read
>
>
>
>
> It always surprises me how two types of traders can be so
oblivious to each others' way of thinking. Consider two types of
traders (ignoring the many types in between):
>
>
>
>
> 1) Those who scan 100+ stocks in Real-Time and trade small lots
of 100 shares (or whatever the market allows) 5-100 times a day,
easily making up to a few percent on good days, using an automated
trading system.
>
> 2) Those who trade portfolios with 1000-10000 shares/trade and
must roll over millions of dollars trading for others, making, if
they are lucky a few percent/month.
>
>
>
>
> We have both of these traders on this list but really they
should have their own lists, perhaps AmiBroker-Fat and AmiBroker-
Skinny their expectations are not and cannot be the same.
>
>
>
>
> In the first category volumes, market trends, market analysis,
traditional TA, etc. play a minor role in system design. Their
systems can be extremely simple and their trading rules may be
expressed using only half a dozen lines of code while their
automation code may easily exceed 1000 lines. Their trading screen
may only display a lists of tickers with order status: no charts.
They work hard to design and optimize code for maximum execution
speed so that to can get their orders placed before the next quote
comes in - speed translates in profits and 20-40 mSec execution is
typical.
>
>
>
>
> Almost everything for the second category is reversed: they
thrive on traditional TA using many colorful chart-layouts, perhaps
totalling 1000s of lines of code. Their automation code, if they use
it, may just be a a hundred lines long and aims to save them some
typing - not to catch a trade. They use old (10-20 years!) techniques
and statistical analysis that are rehashed over and over, they thrive
on sophisticated analysis to squeeze out a fraction of a percent more
per month (or reduce awful DDs). Code can be bloated with cosmetic
stuff and its OK if it takes 5 minutes to execute.
>
>
>
>
> Traders from both categories ought to respect each others.
>
>
>
>
> best regards,
>
> herman
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Sunday, May 27, 2007, 5:27:22 AM, you wrote:
>
>
>
>
> >
> Hi Dennis --
>
>
>
>
> Averages 2.5% per day!?
>
>
>
>
> That same $1,000 starting account becomes $294,000,000 in
two years.
>
>
>
>
> (1.025) ^ 510 = 294,558
>
>
>
>
> Please pass my email address on to your friend who gets
2.5% per day. howardbandy at gmail.com I have contacts who will
reward him handsomely.
>
>
>
>
> When Larry Williams ran $10,000 to $1,000,000 in one year
and became famous for it, that required a return of 1.84% per day.
2.5% per day turns $10,000 to $5,039,800 in one year.
>
>
>
>
> Help me understand -- Assume I can average 1% per day on,
say, $100,000. Every month, I start with $100,000 and make $24,471
on that $100,000. Why would I pull my $24,471 profits out so that
they can make 1% for the next month instead of continuing to trade
them and making 24% for the next month?
>
>
>
>
> And, yes, trading in size affects the market. But if
your friend is trading several times per day in markets with high
liquidity and narrow bid-asked spreads, then $1,000,000 is still
small size. QQQQ and IWM each regularly trade $5 billion dollars a
day -- $1,000,000 is 5 seconds worth of trading.
>
>
>
>
> Pardon my skepticism --
>
>
>
>
> Thanks,
>
> Howard
>
> www.quantitativetradingsystems.com
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On 5/26/07, Dennis Brown <see3d@xxx> wrote:
>
> I know of more than one 1% per day method, but of
course it will not work to compound. That is not the way a true
trader does it. I know a trader who averages 2.5% per day on about 5
trades per day on one ETF, and holds no position overnight. He pulls
his profits out and lives on them or puts them to work in longer term
investments. High rates of return only work for small investments
and usually require a lot of personal attention and pattern
recognition during the day. If it worked for large sums, or easy
computer algorithms, the big boys (or hoards) would work that angle
to death and the edge would get neutralized. Once you try to
increase position sizes above a certain amount, you start to
influence the market and you have no one to play against --it takes
two to have a market. That is why large mutual funds must look to a
fundamental value model. They can not trade the technicals quick
enough without killing the market. A true trader will just work the
market technicals to pull out a small amount of money at a consistent
rate (no home runs). Over time, the results add up to a decent
living.
>
>
>
>
> Dennis
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On May 26, 2007, at 4:02 PM, Howard B wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> One percent a day. Yeah, right.
>
>
>
>
> Compound one percent a day for five years and a
$1,000 trading account becomes $278,000,000. Start with real money
and own Manhattan.
>
>
>
>
> (1.01) ^ 1260 = 278,567
>
>
>
>
> Howard
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On 5/26/07, dralexchambers <dralexchambers@xxx>
wrote:
>
> T-ohrt - the thing you are missing is not your
technical ability, but
>
> your BELIEF and your ATTITUDE to new things.
>
>
>
>
> You seem to mistrust my recommendation when in fact
you nothing of
>
> me, my level of trading knowledge, this system or
my involvement with
>
> it (my involvement is none other than my affiliate
link - just to
>
> make that entirely clear).
>
>
>
>
> If you believe that 1% a month is all that is
possible, that will be
>
> your reality, and you will discount ideas that make
more as trickery.
>
>
>
>
> If you want trade lists, further explanations on
the system I
>
> recommended - discuss it with David, the author. It
is not my job to
>
> divulge a system that someone else owns.
>
>
>
>
> However, I will say that David's system is very
credible and also
>
> very simple. I have recieved a lot of support from
David and his
>
> system opened my eyes to swing trading.
>
>
>
>
> I also know of an individual who makes 1% A DAY -
and publishes all
>
> his methods and indicators for free, online.
>
>
>
>
> Look for The Rumpled One at:
>
>
>
>
> www.kreslik.com.
>
>
>
>
> I am currently porting his work over to Amibroker
on that site.
>
>
>
>
> And yes, once again - it is all FREE, and you
definately won't find
>
> it in your "Beyond Technical Analysis" book.
>
>
>
>
> AC
>
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