RE: [amibroker] Can this be done

[a a <swptec@xxxxxxxxx>]

Hi David,
   
  Thank you for your excellent reply. You have hit the nail on the head. I do manage my entries well but the exit is a problem. I have been toying with parabolic SAR. Ema 3,6 crossover etc. but have not been able to find a sell strategy which manages to differentiate between a bull-trap and an exit. Many times prices decline only to go back to new highs (i.e bull trap) and then one feels stupid for selling and at other times the decline is for real.
   
  Any ideas on this problem?
   
  Thanks.

dbw451 <dbw451@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
              Wow, that?s a loaded question.  I?m not overly familiar with the RSI indicator, so I can?t offer specific suggestions about what you?re trying to do.  However, I can say that in general a system based on a single indicator is only profitable when the market is conducive to that type of indicator.  For an oscillating indicator like the RSI, the market either needs to be ranging or in a pull-back of a trend for the oscillator to be useful.  Trying to buy an oversold oscillator in a down trending market is a recipe for disaster.   Identifying market conditions is the hardest part of trading, IMHO.  You need to decide if your system is ranged based or trend based and focus on identifying when the market is conducive to your system.  In other words, focus on what?s going on in the left hand side of your chart.
  
  The golden rule of trading is ?cut your losses short and let your profits run?.  If you think about it, the golden rule is primarily about where to exit a trade.  If you put your focus on exits rather than entries, you?ll be much better off.  Good entries are important, however it?s been proven that a coin flip entry with tight stops and good profit management can be a profitable system.  All that?s needed to win this game is a positive expectation system and the discipline to follow it.  Chapter 5 of Van K Tharp?s ?Financial Freedom through Electronic Day Trading? is the best write up I?ve read on the golden rule and system expectations.  The book also has a great chapter on how to write a trading plan.  These two topics apply to any type of trading (i.e. day, swing, etc.).
  
  Best of luck in your trading education.
  
  Regards,
  
  David
  
      
---------------------------------
  
  From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of a a
Sent: 02/20/2007 2:52 AM
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [amibroker] Can this be done

  
          Hi David,

    

    Thanks for your help. Do you have any suggestions on how the trading strategy can be further improved upon.

    

    Thanks.

dbw451 <dbw451@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

            AmiBroker can do this very well and you have a good backtesting strategy.  AB?s optimization basically iterates a variable over a range of values.  For each variable you want to optimize, you specify a starting, ending, and increment value.  An AFL example would be:

    dRSIvalue = Optimize("RSI value", 14, 4, 30, 1);

    dRSI = RSI(dRSIvalue);

    I don?t think AI software is needed for what you want to do.

    Regards,

    David

      
---------------------------------
  
    From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of swptec
Sent: 02/19/2007 1:57 AM
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [amibroker] Can this be done


          Hi,

I am new to Amibroker and don't know even if I am wording my question 
properly.

I want to optimize an indicator (say) like RSI for (say) a two year 
period from Jan 2003 to Jan 2005 and then do an out of sample backtest 
for the optimized indicator for the period Feb 2005 to Jan 2007.

Can such a thing be done?
Is it worth while trying such things?
Am I better of buy some Artificial Intelligence s/w for this purpose?

Thanks.







  
    
    
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