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Yuki,
The markets are always privy to massive moves. Sometimes these moves
cannot be exited because the market exchange system in which we
partake collapses. There are countless examples of this if you look
under GOOGLE .
In my opinion then , one simple method to add to your "system" could
be to mechanically divide the networth ( equity ) into say 5 lots (
cash , markets, property etc ) so limit a catastrophy to 20% of your
net worth . Trade in opposite correlated markets to reduce the event
causing too much pain.
Another method could be to make one of these lots OPTION buying there
by limiting the losses.
I think one should have "as part of the system " a means to take into
account the unlikely event that you have mentioned.
Regards,
Maurice
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <ftonetti@xxxx> wrote:
>
>
> Planned exit ? ... I suppose that depends on how you define PLANNED.
> To me a plan, whether in someones head or in some expert system,
> incorporates the capability to "see" that this is not a trade that
> should be held onto. Clearly the tools exist that allow one to write
> systems that take into account adverse price movements regardless of
> the reason. If one chooses not to use those tools then hey ...
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> > Just to add one final thought to this point:
> >
> > m>> Even if you execute a full 99% of your system's recommendations,
> > m>> and avoid only 1%, you have forfeited the right to say that you
> > m>> are using a trading system.
> >
> > You have a system, and it says go long intraday today, with an exit
> > in three bars.
> >
> > One hour after entry, Air Force One with the president on board is
> > blown out of the sky with a shoulder fired missile, and
> > simultaneously a truck bomb of massive proportion takes out one wing
> > of the US capitol while it was in full session.
> >
> > You see the futures dropping like there is no tomorrow. Now, tell
> me
> > you are going to hold that trade just because you are a pure system
> > trader. Or better, tell me that you will dump it on the planned
> > exit, when it may be hitting a low that won't be seen again for a
> > decade.
> >
> > I don't think so.
> >
> > Extreme example of course, but then extremes happen, and that's the
> > whole point. One doesn't turn one's life and fortune over to an
> > unthinking rule set, without any possibility of exception, unless
> one
> > is rather foolish, IMO.
> >
> > Yuki
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