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Hi DIMITRIS,
Wednesday, November 24, 2004, 5:46:43 PM, you wrote:
DT> The Nov16 is already a [confirmed] peak [per=3]
DT> Another important issue :
DT> The Sept8, Oct7 and Nov16 peaks form a typical H&S.
DT> The neck line is descending. The last price is 10,395 and the line
DT> looses 9points per day.
DT> The target line is at 9,714 and it is also descending.
DT> The technical part of this scenario becomes more interesting now!!
DT> Negative slope H&S are not easily confirmed, but...
DT> Dimitris
It's a pretty ugly chart, but I think a H&S here is not very well
supported by volume. That said, there is certainly nothing about
this chart right now that is making me look for any tradable long.
That might change after the weekend, but we'll see. Right now it
just looks like more churning, with risk tilted to the downside.
Seasonally, we are bearing down on a period when it's wise to be very
careful in Tokyo, but it gets much better as we get to the last 1/3
of December.
This dollar business is a lose-lose proposition for us, at least near
term. If Japan and China fight it, the risks of a real crisis down
the road rise. If Japan doesn't fight it, a whole lot of earnings
revisions are going to be in order. The charts seem to be saying this
is a serious deal.
Well, I've been completely flat since the open of the 18th. Haven't
traded a thing since. Smartest thing to do a lot of the time.
One thing we can say for sure right now, and that is that this market
is getting zero broad-based support at the 200-day right now. That
of course, is not a very good sign at all. I may have to consider
taking shorts if this continues. ^_^
Best,
Yuki
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