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Hi DIMITRIS,
Monday, November 22, 2004, 4:33:17 PM, you wrote:
DT> Yuki, From the technical point of view, the Nov16 high
DT> [11,268.81] is not recognized as a Peak [yet]. We were needing a
DT> H below 10,930 for a 3% percentage. When this Nov16 will be a
DT> Peak, the resistance trendline will be descending. It means any
DT> future bullish breakout will occur at lower prices [draw manually
DT> the trendline linking Oct7-Nov16 highs to see what I mean...].
DT> This fact will define a negative parallel channel for the next 10
DT> days or so. Another important issue : The Nov15 gapup is quickly
DT> replaced by a worse Nov22 gapdown. Nobody has any reason to try
DT> the 11,000 level now...
I just got home from another fabulous day outdoors. I see I didn't
miss much. ^^_^^
Well, golly, gee, and my goodness. It's very hard to put lipstick on
this pig. As you remember, I told you in a private note that my
(weekly) A/D indicator had gone red on the week ending October 29 for
the first time since it turned green the week ending April 25, 2003.
It's still red.
OTOH, no major damage to the captain of the ship: banks. If the
direction of this market is going to be lower, banks have to give up
more ground. Right here, it still looks like nothing more than a
pullback based on bank activity today. Clearly, the Osaka Gods had a
fun time this morning, especially since I see Globex Naz was down
1,000 at our lunch time (now down "only" 650 as I write).
The descending triangle is still very much in place, although as I
mentioned these elongated versions tend to simply peter out into
sideways nothing-ness. That may be what we will see here.
I certainly agree with you that 11,000 is not the number. As you
know, I never thought it was. The only reason it may *become* the
number (in the future) is that the 50-day is quickly merging with it.
We have other hurdles to clear first, however. ^_^
As I say, there is no way to put a pretty face on this. The short
term channel is trashed. The gap is uglier than me after a hard
night of drinking and no makeup.
The only positive spin I could put on this is that it comes heading
into a low-volume week, and in front of both key bank earnings and
end of the month activity. We may spend a few days down here, and
pop right back up to challenge the key levels. I'm surely not going
to front-run it, however.
At 103.17 @ 5 pm here, there is no sign yet of the BoJ.
On balance, I'd have to say we *must* go lower before we can try
higher. However, I can't really see *significantly* lower (say,
below 10,500 basis the close) unless we have a full-blown dollar
crisis, and we don't at this time. So, more chop, more misleading
head-fakes, and more happiness that my year is already made. I can
watch this with fascination as a pure intellectual endeavor. ^^_^^
Yuki
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