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The Nov16 is already a [confirmed] peak [per=3]
Another important issue :
The Sept8, Oct7 and Nov16 peaks form a typical H&S.
The neck line is descending. The last price is 10,395 and the line
looses 9points per day.
The target line is at 9,714 and it is also descending.
The technical part of this scenario becomes more interesting now!!
Negative slope H&S are not easily confirmed, but...
Dimitris
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
wrote:
>
> In a few words, my scenario comes from the
>
> x = Cum(1);
> per = Param("per",2.5,2,20,0.5);// CALIBRATE THE ZIG() SENSITIVITY
> s1=L;s11=H;
> pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
> endt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,1));
> startt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,2));
> dtS =endt-startt;
> endS = SelectedValue((ValueWhen( pS, s1,1) ));
> startS = SelectedValue(( ValueWhen( pS, s1 ,2)));
> aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
> trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;//SUPPORT LINE
> pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
> endt1= SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1));
> startt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
> dtR =endt1-startt1;
> endR = SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
> startR = SelectedValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));
> aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;bR = endR;
> trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;//RESISTANCE LINE
> first=Min(startt,startt1);Last=Max(endt,endt1);
> d=10;// INCREASE d TO EXTEND THE LINES
> bullishbreakout=x>endt1 AND Cross(C,trendlineR);
> bearishbreakout=x>endt AND Cross(trendlineS,C);
> Plot(C,"Close",IIf(bullishbreakout,colorBrightGreen,IIf
> (bearishbreakout,colorRed,colorBlack)),64);
> Plot(IIf(x>=first -d ,trendlineS,-
1e10),"Support",colorBrightGreen,1);
> Plot(IIf(x>=first-d ,trendlineR,-1e10),"Resistance",colorRed,1);
>
> for per=6.
> The most recent negative channel is for per=2.5, but it would be
more
> robust if confirmed for per=3.
> Dimitris
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS"
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> wrote:
> >
> > Yuki,
> > From the technical point of view, the Nov16 high [11,268.81] is
not
> > recognized as a Peak [yet]. We were needing a H below 10,930 for
a
> 3%
> > percentage.
> > When this Nov16 will be a Peak, the resistance trendline will be
> > descending. It means any future bullish breakout will occur at
> lower
> > prices [draw manually the trendline linking Oct7-Nov16 highs to
see
> > what I mean...].
> > This fact will define a negative parallel channel for the next 10
> > days or so.
> > Another important issue : The Nov15 gapup is quickly replaced by
a
> > worse Nov22 gapdown. Nobody has any reason to try the 11,000
level
> > now...
> > Dimitris
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Hi DIMITRIS,
> > >
> > > Saturday, November 20, 2004, 5:36:00 AM, you wrote:
> > >
> > > DT> How about the ^N225 open on Monday ? [technical or non
> technical
> > > DT> opinions will be appreciated...] Dimitris
> > >
> > > Has to be ugly, and I'm quickly losing my enthusiasm for the
long
> > > side of this market. Do you want a number? ^^_^^ Okay. The
225
> > > will open at 10,988.13. It may close there as well. ^_^
> > >
> > > I see the dollar @ 103.1 on this fine Saturday morning in the
Big
> > > Mikan. So, exporters are not going to be too happy about this.
> > >
> > > What has kept the market alive this year (and contributed
greatly
> to
> > > it last year as well) is the so-called "domestic demand" stocks.
> > > These are services (like banks), real estate companies, etc.,
> that
> > do
> > > not (in theory anyway) rely on exchange rates or exports for
their
> > > earnings.
> > >
> > > You can see what has happened, too, as investors have grabbed
this
> > > idea and run with it. Since the low in the spring of '03, major
> > > banks are up several hundred percent (and institutions were
> pouring
> > a
> > > river of money into them yet this week, until Friday, when they
> > > didn't show up). Real estate companies have tripled or
> quadrupled.
> > > Electronics, semiconductors, etc., are lucky if they have
doubled.
> > > Some did double and almost triple on the initial surge last
year,
> > but
> > > they have given a lot back. NEC, for example, ran from 350 to
> 1000,
> > > but is now back below 600 and dead in the water at the moment.
> > >
> > > But the "domestic demand" story only works (IMO) if the export
> > sector
> > > isn't acting as a genuine drag on the economy. It isn't right
> now,
> > > but profits have surely peaked for this cycle, and there are a
> lot
> > of
> > > questions looking forward, as we can see from this morning's
> > business
> > > headlines.
> > >
> > > I expect a lot of choppiness on Monday here, DT. We are at a
> > > dollar/yen level that begs MOF intervention. However, there
may
> not
> > > be much here, as it was last year's interventions that have
placed
> > > such a strain on the Euro, forcing it to be the prime victim of
> > > dollar weakness. Politically, that isn't going to play very
well
> > > this time around. Nonetheless, traders will be on guard for
it,
> and
> > > may not push the downside too hard, just in case.
> > >
> > > There will be those who will try and defend 11,000. Clearly
that
> > > line is meaningless this year, however, it's been crossed more
> times
> > > than a pilgrim visiting Vatican City. ^^_^^ The recent leg is
> not
> > > in trouble technically (again IMO) until we get a close below
> 10,900
> > > (this is near term, however, mid term that level will rise),
just
> as
> > > Friday's train wreck in the US does not change market dynamics
> yet.
> > > It just bled off some hyperventilation, which certainly was in
> order
> > > and needed to be vented.
> > >
> > > I think it's safe to say here, however, that the powerful rally
I
> > was
> > > hoping for is not materializing. Not yet, anyway. Most of the
> time
> > > the smart thing to do is cautiously play at the margins anyway,
> > > awaiting those rare periods when it pays (significantly pays, I
> > might
> > > add) to be rather reckless. I'd hoped we were nearing one of
these
> > > periods, but the signs have weakened considerably. Monday, I
may
> > > take the day off. I can't imagine a scenario on Monday that
would
> > > make me want to take a position either way. The fall colors are
> > > beginning to cascade down the mountainsides all the way to the
sea
> > > now, and the parks in Tokyo are beginning to look like great
> places
> > > to have a lunch date with my friends Mr. Chardonnay, Mr.
Baguette,
> > > and Ms. Frommage. (^_-)
> > >
> > > Best,
> > >
> > > Yuki
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