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DT,
I use a combination of indicators forming an expert system to handle
different market situations, but this system does not work during
periods of high volatility and also during periods of combined low
volatility and indecision in the market.
Hence, during these periods the best position to have is being flat,
but if already in a position, protect it using a trailing stop or a
break-even stop.
But during periods of normal volatility, when I detect a continuation
signal, I wait till the market opens for verification of that signal.
In general, if the market opens higher, it has a high probability of
closing higher, so if I had detected a long signal, and the market
opens higher, I would go long and exactly the opposite for a short
signal. But if the market opens lower, it would be ugly indeed. I'm
unable to verify this signal, before the market opens.
But, I did some extreme simulation to get a probable scenario and I am
biased towards going long, once the volatility has come down, maybe
sometime next week, but since the volatility jumped sharply higher
from Thursday to Friday, better to avoid taking a position on monday.
The key is the current trend and volatility. The trend is your friend
till the end and volatility is your friend until it turns on you.
rgds, Pal
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
wrote:
>
> Pal,
> Is there any technical indicator/indication you use for your
>
> "...because a continuation of previous uptrend signal is detected."
>
> The continuation criteria is a very interesting T/A subject, IMO.
> TIA for any reply.
> Dimitris
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Pal Anand" <palsanand@xxxx> wrote:
> >
> > NK225 FUTURES:
> >
> > Long term bottom at 801.5
> >
> > Long term top at 1501.5
> >
> > Mid term top at 1231
> >
> > Right now, Highly Volatile and making a pullback on an uptrend.
> >
> > If already long, add on to the position because a continuation
> > of previous uptrend signal is detected.
> >
> > If already short, move stop to 1113.70 or if aggressive, exit your
> > short position and reverse it (go long).
> >
> > Took me 5 minutes to do this analysis.
> >
> > rgds, Pal
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS"
> <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > How about the ^N225 open on Monday ?
> > > [technical or non technical opinions will be appreciated...]
> > > Dimitris
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS"
> <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > You may see the next bar S_R already placed in the
> > > > http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/RSIc/
> > > > folder.
> > > > It is quite expressive for the short-term predictions.
> > > > Dimitris
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > > > > Hi DIMITRIS,
> > > > >
> > > > > Could be a heck of a dog fight. We were slapped hard right
> spot
> > > on
> > > > > the 200-day. This is the third flirtation with this level in
> the
> > > > > past few months, and the other times it looked like we
> mounted it
> > > > > successfully before giving it right back up.
> > > > >
> > > > > Fifty day and 200-day both virtually flat here, with about a
> 200
> > > > > point spread, give or take. It could be a war. OTOH, we
> (planet
> > > > > earth) are so flush with liquidity still that I suspect we
> have
> > > more
> > > > > upside room. Interesting negative cross between Steve's 144
> and
> > > the
> > > > > 200 this week, the first cross since last August. But I
> don't
> > > think
> > > > > this is the end of the trend. Nasty to see institutions fail
> at
> > > the
> > > > > 200 however. But did they?
> > > > >
> > > > > Huge volume again in banks and brokers, but especially
> banks. We
> > > > are
> > > > > talking 700 million to 1.5 billion dollar plays, almost
> entirely
> > > on
> > > > > the long side, this going on for several days now. This is
> not
> > > Dick
> > > > > and Jane Suzuki tapping out orders at home. (Ichiro Suzuki,
> > > maybe.)
> > > > > ^^_^^ But this continued for some time *in the face* of a
> > > > significant
> > > > > futures failure today. It was only *very* late that,
> convinced the
> > > > > futures would not bounce today, institutions simply stopped
> > > > > supporting the bids. Want to bet they won't be back quickly
> on any
> > > > > weakness? And these issues represent the core of the market.
> They
> > > > > (the major banks) still hold a ton of stock in the rest of the
> > > > > market. One cannot bid up their shares without thinking the
> rest
> > > of
> > > > > the market is undervalued as well. (I'm talking about
> painting
> > > the
> > > > > tape again and again with 2000 or 3000 share blocks of
> > > > > 5000-dollar-and-higher stocks at a crack, which has been
> going on
> > > > all
> > > > > this week. This is *not* retail trade, to be sure.)
> > > > >
> > > > > Maybe some churning here, but if we take out the 200 now, it
> may
> > > be
> > > > a
> > > > > while before we'll see it again. I could see 2 to 4 weeks of
> > > fairly
> > > > > good strength here before a serious pullback.
> > > > >
> > > > > As for today, you mentioned the "positive" US session. I saw
> it
> > > as
> > > > a
> > > > > canary in the coal mine. So over bought near term, and even
> > > though
> > > > > we are significantly less over bought, everyone here realizes
> the
> > > US
> > > > > could correct sharply for 3 to 5 days or so, and no one is
> too
> > > eager
> > > > > to run a long play into that kind of potential. They gave a
> lot
> > > > back
> > > > > in the US last night, and as I mentioned in the case of ^225
> > > > futures,
> > > > > about all of it.
> > > > >
> > > > > Remember, they want to shake every long out that they
> possibly can
> > > > > before climbing over the 200 for a run. That may be what we
> are
> > > > > seeing here. Any notion that the big players want us
> attending
> > > the
> > > > > party is pure fantasy. ^_^ They want us showing up
> significantly
> > > > > late, ready to absorb some of their profit taking.
> > > > >
> > > > > Or so it appears from over here.
> > > > >
> > > > > Yuki
> > > > >
> > > > > Thursday, November 18, 2004, 5:00:35 PM, you wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > DT> Where the support is.
> > > > > DT> a. Price trendlines : Unfortunately they are ambiguous
> since
> > > > they
> > > > > DT> diverge. The resistance slope [defined by Sept8-Oct7
> peaks]
> > > is
> > > > 2.76,
> > > > > DT> the support slope [defined by Sept28-Oct25 troughs] is -
> 9.031.
> > > > > DT> The support trendline was pointing 10,421 after todays
> close.
> > > > > DT> This support will be valid until a new trough appears.
> > > > > DT> Will it be higher than Oct25 Low ? [10,575]
> > > > > DT> Will it be lower ?
> > > > > DT> Who knows...
> > > > > DT> The new peak, on the other side, will be [probably] the
> Nov16
> > > > high
> > > > > DT> [11,268]
> > > > > DT> There is no clear scenario, this session was rather
> > > confusing,
> > > > you
> > > > > DT> turned your face south and you didnt follow the positive
> US
> > > > session...
> > > > > DT> b. The [recently posted] RSIc trendlines
> > > > >
> > > > > DT> //The RSIc trendlines
> > > > > DT> procedure RSIc(n)
> > > > > DT> {
> > > > > DT> C=RSIa(C,n);
> > > > > DT> O=RSIa(O,n);
> > > > > DT> H=RSIa(H,n);
> > > > > DT> H=IIf(H<Max(C,O),Max(C,O),H);
> > > > > DT> L=RSIa(L,n);
> > > > > L=IIf(L>>Min(C,O),Min(C,O),L);
> > > > > DT> }
> > > > > DT> n=Param("n",10,10,30,5);//RSI sensitivity
> > > > > DT> RSIc(n);
> > > > > DT> Plot(C,"RSIc",1,64);
> > > > > DT> per = Param("per",10,3,20,1);//trendlines sensitivity
> > > > > DT> x = Cum(1);s1=L;s11=H;
> > > > > DT> pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > > > DT> endt= LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 1 ));
> > > > > DT> startt=LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 2 ));
> > > > > DT> dtS =endt-startt;
> > > > > DT> endS = LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, s1, 1 ) );
> > > > > DT> startS = LastValue( ValueWhen( pS, s1, 2 ));
> > > > > DT> aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
> > > > > DT> trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;
> > > > > DT> Plot(IIf(x>startt-10,trendlineS,-
> > > 1e10),"Support",colorYellow,1);
> > > > > DT> pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > > > DT> endt1= LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1 ));
> > > > > DT> startt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
> > > > > DT> firstt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 3 ));
> > > > > DT> dtR =endt1-startt1;
> > > > > DT> endR = LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
> > > > > DT> startR = LastValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));
> > > > > DT> aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;
> > > > > DT> bR = endR;
> > > > > DT> trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;
> > > > > DT> Plot(IIf(x>startT1-10,trendlineR,-
> > > > 1e10),"Resistance",colorYellow,1);
> > > > >
> > > > > DT> give a better short term idea : An almost parallel
> ASCENDING
> > > > channel
> > > > > DT> with lower limit at 47. The support line is increasing by
> > > > 0.9/bar,
> > > > > DT> tomorrow it will be 47.92. If you RevEng it you will have
> > > > tomorrows
> > > > > DT> support at 10,946.
> > > > > DT> But, this RSIc channel is very short term and it is quite
> > > > sensitive.
> > > > > DT> [I will improve this code to give directly the expected
> Close
> > > > range ]
> > > > >
> > > > > DT> Dimitris
> > > > > DT> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga
> <yukitaga@xxxx>
> > > > wrote:
> > > > > >> I guess nobody over here pays attention to the CME ^225
> > > futures.
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> At least a lot of nobodies . . . but I do.
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> Despite the pathetic close in Chicago, the bulls came
> snorting
> > > > out
> > > > > DT> of
> > > > > >> the gate here, and they ran the futures to 11,250 in no
> short
> > > > order.
> > > > > >> It was your "last chance" to buy. ^^_^^ But, about 9:45,
> the
> > > > > DT> market
> > > > > >> reversed and we were quickly down to 11,140. No huge
> surprise
> > > to
> > > > > >> those who were paying full attention.
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> Amazingly, sentiment is so one-way here right now that
> this
> > > first
> > > > > >> plunge apparently didn't scare anyone. Okay, so the first
> > > plunge
> > > > > >> *always* gets a bit of a bounce. But in the PM session, we
> > > > waited at
> > > > > >> 11,170 . . . no buyers. We waited at 11,130 . . . no
> buyers.
> > > We
> > > > > >> waited at 11,000 . . . no buyers.
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> So, we have technical damage here, for sure. DT, I am
> still
> > > > sure
> > > > > DT> you
> > > > > >> are wrong about 10,900 being resistance. Clearly, the
> level is
> > > > > >> higher. But, we apparently need to test something lower
> > > before
> > > > we
> > > > > >> can go higher, which does not surprise me at all. One-way
> > > > sentiment
> > > > > >> is a killer. So, the question is . . . where is the
> support
> > > line?
> > > > > >> Could it be 10,900?
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> I don't know where we will close (in 20 min.) but it won't
> be
> > > > where
> > > > > >> the morning traders will be happy.
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> (It was a great morning to liquidate into strength.) ^_^
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> Yuki
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