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--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Pal Anand" <palsanand@xxxx> wrote:
>
> DT,
>
> I use a combination of indicators forming an expert system to handle
> different market situations, but this system does not work during
> periods of high volatility and also during periods of combined low
> volatility and indecision in the market.
>
> Hence, during these periods the best position to have is being flat,
> but if already in a position, protect it using a trailing stop or a
> break-even stop.
>
> But during periods of normal volatility, when I detect a
continuation
> signal, I wait till the market opens for verification of that
signal.
> In general, if the market opens higher, it has a high probability
of
> closing higher,
Pal,
In technical terms, the results of
Filter=1;
AddColumn(100*Cum(C>Ref(C,-1) AND O>Ref(C,-1))/Cum(O>Ref(C,-
1)),"criterion");
are not that enthusiastic [and let me suppose you agree...]
High probability would give values >90 and it is not the case...
On the other side, a true continuation criterion should give the
signal BEFORE the market open.
Dimitris
>so if I had detected a long signal, and the market
> opens higher, I would go long and exactly the opposite for a short
> signal. But if the market opens lower, it would be ugly indeed.
I'm
> unable to verify this signal, before the market opens.
>
> But, I did some extreme simulation to get a probable scenario and I
am
> biased towards going long, once the volatility has come down, maybe
> sometime next week, but since the volatility jumped sharply higher
> from Thursday to Friday, better to avoid taking a position on
monday.
>
> The key is the current trend and volatility. The trend is your
friend
> till the end and volatility is your friend until it turns on you.
>
> rgds, Pal
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS"
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> wrote:
> >
> > Pal,
> > Is there any technical indicator/indication you use for your
> >
> > "...because a continuation of previous uptrend signal is
detected."
> >
> > The continuation criteria is a very interesting T/A subject, IMO.
> > TIA for any reply.
> > Dimitris
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Pal Anand" <palsanand@xxxx>
wrote:
> > >
> > > NK225 FUTURES:
> > >
> > > Long term bottom at 801.5
> > >
> > > Long term top at 1501.5
> > >
> > > Mid term top at 1231
> > >
> > > Right now, Highly Volatile and making a pullback on an uptrend.
> > >
> > > If already long, add on to the position because a continuation
> > > of previous uptrend signal is detected.
> > >
> > > If already short, move stop to 1113.70 or if aggressive, exit
your
> > > short position and reverse it (go long).
> > >
> > > Took me 5 minutes to do this analysis.
> > >
> > > rgds, Pal
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS"
> > <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > How about the ^N225 open on Monday ?
> > > > [technical or non technical opinions will be appreciated...]
> > > > Dimitris
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS"
> > <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> > > > wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > You may see the next bar S_R already placed in the
> > > > > http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/RSIc/
> > > > > folder.
> > > > > It is quite expressive for the short-term predictions.
> > > > > Dimitris
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > > > Hi DIMITRIS,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Could be a heck of a dog fight. We were slapped hard
right
> > spot
> > > > on
> > > > > > the 200-day. This is the third flirtation with this
level in
> > the
> > > > > > past few months, and the other times it looked like we
> > mounted it
> > > > > > successfully before giving it right back up.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Fifty day and 200-day both virtually flat here, with
about a
> > 200
> > > > > > point spread, give or take. It could be a war. OTOH, we
> > (planet
> > > > > > earth) are so flush with liquidity still that I suspect
we
> > have
> > > > more
> > > > > > upside room. Interesting negative cross between Steve's
144
> > and
> > > > the
> > > > > > 200 this week, the first cross since last August. But I
> > don't
> > > > think
> > > > > > this is the end of the trend. Nasty to see institutions
fail
> > at
> > > > the
> > > > > > 200 however. But did they?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Huge volume again in banks and brokers, but especially
> > banks. We
> > > > > are
> > > > > > talking 700 million to 1.5 billion dollar plays, almost
> > entirely
> > > > on
> > > > > > the long side, this going on for several days now. This
is
> > not
> > > > Dick
> > > > > > and Jane Suzuki tapping out orders at home. (Ichiro
Suzuki,
> > > > maybe.)
> > > > > > ^^_^^ But this continued for some time *in the face* of a
> > > > > significant
> > > > > > futures failure today. It was only *very* late that,
> > convinced the
> > > > > > futures would not bounce today, institutions simply
stopped
> > > > > > supporting the bids. Want to bet they won't be back
quickly
> > on any
> > > > > > weakness? And these issues represent the core of the
market.
> > They
> > > > > > (the major banks) still hold a ton of stock in the rest
of the
> > > > > > market. One cannot bid up their shares without thinking
the
> > rest
> > > > of
> > > > > > the market is undervalued as well. (I'm talking about
> > painting
> > > > the
> > > > > > tape again and again with 2000 or 3000 share blocks of
> > > > > > 5000-dollar-and-higher stocks at a crack, which has been
> > going on
> > > > > all
> > > > > > this week. This is *not* retail trade, to be sure.)
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Maybe some churning here, but if we take out the 200 now,
it
> > may
> > > > be
> > > > > a
> > > > > > while before we'll see it again. I could see 2 to 4
weeks of
> > > > fairly
> > > > > > good strength here before a serious pullback.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > As for today, you mentioned the "positive" US session. I
saw
> > it
> > > > as
> > > > > a
> > > > > > canary in the coal mine. So over bought near term, and
even
> > > > though
> > > > > > we are significantly less over bought, everyone here
realizes
> > the
> > > > US
> > > > > > could correct sharply for 3 to 5 days or so, and no one
is
> > too
> > > > eager
> > > > > > to run a long play into that kind of potential. They
gave a
> > lot
> > > > > back
> > > > > > in the US last night, and as I mentioned in the case of
^225
> > > > > futures,
> > > > > > about all of it.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Remember, they want to shake every long out that they
> > possibly can
> > > > > > before climbing over the 200 for a run. That may be what
we
> > are
> > > > > > seeing here. Any notion that the big players want us
> > attending
> > > > the
> > > > > > party is pure fantasy. ^_^ They want us showing up
> > significantly
> > > > > > late, ready to absorb some of their profit taking.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Or so it appears from over here.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Yuki
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thursday, November 18, 2004, 5:00:35 PM, you wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > DT> Where the support is.
> > > > > > DT> a. Price trendlines : Unfortunately they are
ambiguous
> > since
> > > > > they
> > > > > > DT> diverge. The resistance slope [defined by Sept8-Oct7
> > peaks]
> > > > is
> > > > > 2.76,
> > > > > > DT> the support slope [defined by Sept28-Oct25 troughs]
is -
> > 9.031.
> > > > > > DT> The support trendline was pointing 10,421 after
todays
> > close.
> > > > > > DT> This support will be valid until a new trough
appears.
> > > > > > DT> Will it be higher than Oct25 Low ? [10,575]
> > > > > > DT> Will it be lower ?
> > > > > > DT> Who knows...
> > > > > > DT> The new peak, on the other side, will be [probably]
the
> > Nov16
> > > > > high
> > > > > > DT> [11,268]
> > > > > > DT> There is no clear scenario, this session was rather
> > > > confusing,
> > > > > you
> > > > > > DT> turned your face south and you didnt follow the
positive
> > US
> > > > > session...
> > > > > > DT> b. The [recently posted] RSIc trendlines
> > > > > >
> > > > > > DT> //The RSIc trendlines
> > > > > > DT> procedure RSIc(n)
> > > > > > DT> {
> > > > > > DT> C=RSIa(C,n);
> > > > > > DT> O=RSIa(O,n);
> > > > > > DT> H=RSIa(H,n);
> > > > > > DT> H=IIf(H<Max(C,O),Max(C,O),H);
> > > > > > DT> L=RSIa(L,n);
> > > > > > L=IIf(L>>Min(C,O),Min(C,O),L);
> > > > > > DT> }
> > > > > > DT> n=Param("n",10,10,30,5);//RSI sensitivity
> > > > > > DT> RSIc(n);
> > > > > > DT> Plot(C,"RSIc",1,64);
> > > > > > DT> per = Param("per",10,3,20,1);//trendlines sensitivity
> > > > > > DT> x = Cum(1);s1=L;s11=H;
> > > > > > DT> pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > > > > DT> endt= LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 1 ));
> > > > > > DT> startt=LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 2 ));
> > > > > > DT> dtS =endt-startt;
> > > > > > DT> endS = LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, s1, 1 ) );
> > > > > > DT> startS = LastValue( ValueWhen( pS, s1, 2 ));
> > > > > > DT> aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
> > > > > > DT> trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;
> > > > > > DT> Plot(IIf(x>startt-10,trendlineS,-
> > > > 1e10),"Support",colorYellow,1);
> > > > > > DT> pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > > > > DT> endt1= LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1 ));
> > > > > > DT> startt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
> > > > > > DT> firstt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 3 ));
> > > > > > DT> dtR =endt1-startt1;
> > > > > > DT> endR = LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
> > > > > > DT> startR = LastValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));
> > > > > > DT> aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;
> > > > > > DT> bR = endR;
> > > > > > DT> trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;
> > > > > > DT> Plot(IIf(x>startT1-10,trendlineR,-
> > > > > 1e10),"Resistance",colorYellow,1);
> > > > > >
> > > > > > DT> give a better short term idea : An almost parallel
> > ASCENDING
> > > > > channel
> > > > > > DT> with lower limit at 47. The support line is
increasing by
> > > > > 0.9/bar,
> > > > > > DT> tomorrow it will be 47.92. If you RevEng it you will
have
> > > > > tomorrows
> > > > > > DT> support at 10,946.
> > > > > > DT> But, this RSIc channel is very short term and it is
quite
> > > > > sensitive.
> > > > > > DT> [I will improve this code to give directly the
expected
> > Close
> > > > > range ]
> > > > > >
> > > > > > DT> Dimitris
> > > > > > DT> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga
> > <yukitaga@xxxx>
> > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > >> I guess nobody over here pays attention to the CME
^225
> > > > futures.
> > > > > > >>
> > > > > > >> At least a lot of nobodies . . . but I do.
> > > > > > >>
> > > > > > >> Despite the pathetic close in Chicago, the bulls came
> > snorting
> > > > > out
> > > > > > DT> of
> > > > > > >> the gate here, and they ran the futures to 11,250 in
no
> > short
> > > > > order.
> > > > > > >> It was your "last chance" to buy. ^^_^^ But, about
9:45,
> > the
> > > > > > DT> market
> > > > > > >> reversed and we were quickly down to 11,140. No huge
> > surprise
> > > > to
> > > > > > >> those who were paying full attention.
> > > > > > >>
> > > > > > >> Amazingly, sentiment is so one-way here right now that
> > this
> > > > first
> > > > > > >> plunge apparently didn't scare anyone. Okay, so the
first
> > > > plunge
> > > > > > >> *always* gets a bit of a bounce. But in the PM
session, we
> > > > > waited at
> > > > > > >> 11,170 . . . no buyers. We waited at 11,130 . . . no
> > buyers.
> > > > We
> > > > > > >> waited at 11,000 . . . no buyers.
> > > > > > >>
> > > > > > >> So, we have technical damage here, for sure. DT, I am
> > still
> > > > > sure
> > > > > > DT> you
> > > > > > >> are wrong about 10,900 being resistance. Clearly, the
> > level is
> > > > > > >> higher. But, we apparently need to test something
lower
> > > > before
> > > > > we
> > > > > > >> can go higher, which does not surprise me at all. One-
way
> > > > > sentiment
> > > > > > >> is a killer. So, the question is . . . where is the
> > support
> > > > line?
> > > > > > >> Could it be 10,900?
> > > > > > >>
> > > > > > >> I don't know where we will close (in 20 min.) but it
won't
> > be
> > > > > where
> > > > > > >> the morning traders will be happy.
> > > > > > >>
> > > > > > >> (It was a great morning to liquidate into strength.)
^_^
> > > > > > >>
> > > > > > >> Yuki
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