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Hi DIMITRIS,
Saturday, November 20, 2004, 4:37:25 PM, you wrote:
DT> Yuki, I keep this "...and I'm quickly losing my enthusiasm for
DT> the long side of this market." I hope you enjoy the
DT> weekend+Monday. Dimitris
You are entitled. ^_^ In this business, recognizing when your
opinion is in jeopardy, and recognizing it early, is a big asset.
Clearly, I was looking for a rally here. Clearly, the "jury is still
out", but my scenario (a rally that sweeps even the reluctant into
participation) is looking less likely. I should have been more
suspicious perhaps when we took out the Sept 28 low on Oct 25. But
the timeliness of the bounce (coming on the first 4 trading days in
November), combined with sharp underperformance vis a vis the US
market recently, set up my expectations.
Still, I might yet be right, and this thing could hold at acceptable
levels and rise sharply around month end and the beginning of
December. But no bets in advance on that from me; the market will
have some serious proving to do now. We do *not* typically rally
here until *late* December (after the 20th), the middle of that month
being typically quite difficult. So, if there is a big move coming
here, it will likely be very soon, or not for another month or more.
And it's very, very unlikely to start on Monday. ^^_^^ Tuesday is a
holiday here, so I'm making this a 4-day weekend, given the market
will not interest me at all tomorrow. (The holiday may save or hurt
the market tomorrow, as others may be like-minded and volume may
evaporate in front of it.)
You have a great weekend, too. I'm out the door to see the colors in
about 5 minutes. Just a sparkling day here, low of about 11 C last
night and a high today of about 18 C under a glorious autumn sun.
Great sleeping weather; great hiking weather.
Yuki
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